Last Updated Aug 30, 2021, 9:53 AM
Over-Under NFL Week 2 Total Predictions, Odds
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Handicapping Week 3 Totals
We have 15 totals left on the Week 3 NFL slate and we'll continue to see zero fans, or limited capacity, indefinitely. While we did lack fans, we didn't lack major injuries in Week 2, and that's something we'll delve into more as we go along for the Week 3 report.
Some quick total notes before we break down the action.
-- The Dallas-Seattle matchup opened with the highest total on the board at 55, and has inched up to 55.5 since early in the week. The Detroit-Arizona game also opened above the 50 line, 51 to be exact, and has shot all the way up to 55 as bettors continue to thump the over. And Monday's titanic Kansas City-Baltimore battle opened at 52, and is also up to 54, and might go a lot higher based on the early betting trends.
-- Books aren't expecting many defensive battles this week, with the San Francisco-N.Y. Giants battle the lowest on the board at 42.5. Again, that's likely a product of the massive casualties on both sides of the ball. The 49ers lost QB Jimmy Garoppolo to a high-ankle sprain, which might put QB Nick Mullen under center to start Week 3.
Buffalo-Miami game opened at 43 and has since dropped to 41, officially the lowest on the board. Last week Buffalo was involved in the only game with a closing total in the 30's, and their game went over against the Jets.
-- Keep an eye on teams traveling from coast to coast this week as we have four matchups that feature clubs traveling from Eastern Time Zone to Pacific Time Zone and vice versa.
- Las Vegas at New England
- L.A. Rams at Buffalo
- San Francisco at N.Y. Giants
- Carolina at L.A. Chargers
- Detroit at Arizona
-- Make a note that the 'over' went 2-1 in games where the West Coast club traveled to the East Coast with the lone 'under' ticket taking place in the Chargers-Bengals game.
Over-Under Line Moves
Listed below are the largest line moves for Week 2 based off our VI Odds as of Friday afternoon.
- Baltimore at Houston: 54.5 to 50
- Kansas City at L.A. Chargers: 51.5 to 47.5
- Denver at Pittsburgh: 44 to 40.5
- L.A. Rams at Philadelphia: 49 to 45.5
- Buffalo at Miami: 43 to 41
- San Francisco at N.Y. Jets: 43.5 to 41.5
- Atlanta at Dallas: 50 to 54
- Detroit at Green Bay: 46 to 49.5
- L.A. Rams at Philadelphia: 49 to 46
Listed below are the five largest leans for Week 2 per the betting trend percentages on the VI Matchup index as of Friday.
Over-Under Betting Trends
- Atlanta at Dallas: Over 98%
- Detroit at Green Bay: Over 95%
- Minnesota at Indianapolis: Over 94%
- Baltimore at Houston: Under 97%
- Buffalo at Miami: Under 93%
- San Francisco at N.Y. Jets: Under 92%
Division Over-Under Notes
The 'over' went 6-3 in the NFL Divisional battles in the opening week according to our betting results (see below). Will the trend continue? We've got five divisional matchups on tap for Sunday.
Detroit at Green Bay: The Lions and Packers both coming off easy 'over' wins in Week 1 and more points expected from the pair on Sunday. The line movement has shifted up (see above) but bettors should make a note that the 'under' is on a 3-0 run in this series albeit with back-up quarterbacks playing a major role in those contests. Prior to those results, the 'over' was on a 6-0 streak in this series.
Jacksonville at Tennessee: The 'over' is on a 4-1 run between this AFC South pair and that includes two tickets to the high side last week. The Jags stunned the Colts in Week 1, scoring 27 points at home last week while the Titans topped the Broncos on a last-second field goal. They ended up leaving 10 points on the board, as PK Stephen Gostkowski misfired on three field goals and a point-after attempt, enduring an absolute nightmare. He redeemed himself in the end with a successful game-winner in the final minute, but kicking woes are not a friend of anyone considering the over.
Buffalo at Miami: The Bills topped the Jets 27-17 last week, scoring 21 in the first-half and they probably should've had more. A late touchdown by the Jets helped the 'over' cash for Buffalo but make a note that the Bills were the best 'under' team (12-4) in the NFL last season. Miami's offense could only muster up 11 points in its opening loss at New England. Despite the low total and 'under' tendencies for both teams, this has been an 'over' series. The high side is on an 8-2 run in the last 10 meetings and the 2019 meetings went 'over' as Buffalo averaged 34.0 PPG vs. Miami, while allowing 20.5 PPG.
Carolina at Tampa Bay: Both clubs coming off 'over' tickets in Week 1 and losses as the Panthers and Buccaneers both surrendered 34 points. Tampa Bay didn't have the opener they envisioned, as quarterback Tom Brady tossed two interceptions, including a pick-six. In fact, going back to last season's playoffs, Brady has two straight games with an interception returned for touchdown. Over bettors love those, but don't bet on the future Hall of Famer making a habit of that. Tough to gauge past history here with Brady and Carolina's Teddy Bridgewater now leading the way. And, the total results for the past two seasons have watched the 'over/under' produce a 2-2 stalemate.
Kansas City at L.A. Chargers: The defending champion Chiefs just barely hit the over at most shops last week in their win over the Texans, while the Bolts hit the under in a hard-fought 16-13 road win at Cincinnati. While this has been a one-sided series for Kansas City, who is 11-1 in the last 12 meetings, the 'under' owns a slight edge (7-5) during this span. The one constant has been the KC offense and the unit has scored 38, 28, 24 and 31 points in the last four encounters with the Bolts.
Week 1 offered up two AFC-NFC matchups and the totals went 1-1 but the Steelers-Giants affair on Monday Night Football was on a good 'over' pace at halftime but a scoreless third quarter helped 'under' tickets connect.
For Week 2, we have four non-conference matchups and two of them will be played under the lights.
Minnesota at Indianapolis: The Vikings were on the short end of a 43-34 shootout against the rival Packers and the 'over' (44.5) was never in doubt. Meanwhile, the Colts were stunned 27-20 by the Jaguars as healthy road favorites (-7) despite holding a massive advantage in yardage (445-241) but two interceptions by QB Philip Rivers cost the Colts. These teams haven't met since 2016 but there are a couple trends that could have you leaning to the 'over' on Sunday. Minnesota went 3-1 versus AFC teams last season and it averaged 30.8 PPG, which helped the 'over' go 4-0. Indy posted 38 and 27 points in two wins last season at home versus NFC foes.
San Francisco at N.Y. Jets: Neither team looked great in Week 1, both starting the season 0-1. San Francisco was dumped at home against Arizona while the Jets were held in check in a 27-17 loss to Buffalo. San Francisco's offense (366 yards) looked decent in Week 1 but the same can't be said for the Jets, who managed 254 yards at Buffalo and 69 yards came on a busted touchdown pass. Last season, the 49ers saw the 'under' go 4-1 in five matchups against AFC foes and the defense only allowed 18.2 PPG. The worst effort came against KC in the Super Bowl and the Chiefs were held in check for three quarters too. Hard to imagine New York doing anything in its home opener and now they're down to running back Frank Gore as their starting tailback with RB Le'Veon Bell on the shelf. For what it's worth, the Jets averaged 24.5 PPG versus the NFC East last season and that helped the club go 3-1 both SU and ATS, plus the 'over' went 3-1 too.
New England at Seattle (SNF): The Pats looked a lot different with QB Cam Newton running the offense, literally. A mobile quarterback hasn't been seen in Foxboro in years - ha. Newton was all over against the Miami Dolphins, as his foot looked more than fine. The Seahawks put the clamps on the Falcons in the second half, and hammered them for a total of 38 points. The Pats hit the under, the 'Hawks hit the over. New England has cashed the over in seven of the past 10 road games, but you can't glean a lot from that trend now that there is a new QB under center and a completely different offense. The Seahawks are 2-7 ATS in the past nine games at home, and 2-6 ATS in the past eight as a home favorite. Although Seattle won last week at Atlanta, the Falcons did put up 506 total offensive yards. Although we have new faces on both teams, the 'over' is on a 5-0 run in this series.
New Orleans at Las Vegas (MNF): The Raiders open brand-spanking new Allegiant Field in Las Vegas, but there will be no fans in attendance. Not exactly the hard opening the Raiders were hoping for. Both of these teams won last week, and each looked good offensively. Both teams dropped 34 points on their opponent, and both teams hit the over. The pair met last in 2016 and the over cashed with the Raiders capturing a 35-34 shootout win at the Superdome. With QB Drew Brees on the field, New Orleans has scored 38, 51 and 24 points in its last three road games versus the AFC. Including last week's result at Carolina, the Raiders have now seen the 'over' cash in six straight games against NFC foes and four of the opponents have busted 30-plus points.
The 'under' went 3-1 in the primetime games last week and it probably should've been 4-0 but Kansas City's late field goal against Houston helped the lone 'over' cash and some bettors playing the 'under' early at 54.5 and 55 cashed too.
We did see the 'over' (44.5) cash this past Thursday with Cleveland outlasting Cincinnati 35-30 at home. With that result, the 'under' is 3-2 in primetime games with two games left to play.
Sunday Night Football Notes
The first Sunday nighter of the 2020 NFL season at the brand new SoFi Stadium in Inglewood, California was a bit of a tease for 'over' bettors as Dallas led the L.A. Rams 14-13 at halftime. The game turned into a defensive battle in the second-half and the two teams only combined for 10 points, including a scoreless fourth quarter. The Patriots and Seahawks will meet on SNF in Week 2 (see above).
Monday Night Football Notes
The Saints and Raiders will conclude the Week 2 action on MNF (see above) and the oddsmakers are expecting points. For those who followed last week's Monday Night double-header, my colleague Kevin Rogers pointed out a great stat in his latest Bet and Collect Podcast.
- Monday Night Football visitors in Week 1 have watched the 'under' go 9-1 in the last 10 games since 2015 in Week 2.
For those looking to ride that trend, you would have 'under' leans for Sunday on both Pittsburgh and Tennessee.
It was a decent showing out of the gate, as I was able to hit each of my three picks, but my teaser didn't come through as the Chargers and Bengals weren't even able to get into the 30's. No worries. We started out at ($200) for Week 1 and push forward to Week 2 with four more wagers.
- Best Over: Buffalo-Miami 41
- Best Under: San Francisco-N.Y. Jets 42.5
- Best First-Half Total: New England-Seattle 22
Three-Team Total Teaser (+7, +135)
- Over 34 Buffalo-Miami
- Under 52.5 L.A. Rams-Philadelphia
- Over 42.5 New Orleans-Las Vegas
Week 1 & Overall Betting Results
The ‘over’ went 9-7 in the first weekend of games, which was the same exact result of Week 1 in the 2019 season.
|Week 1 Total Results|