Last Updated Aug 30, 2021, 13:52 PM
Over-Under NFL Week 4 Total Predictions, Odds
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Handicapping Week 4 Totals
-- There are 14 totals on the board for Sunday and Monday in Week 4, as long as the Minnesota Vikings-Houston Texans and Pittsburgh Steelers-Tennessee Titans game postponed until at least Week 7.
The Titans had a handful of players test positive for COVID-19, as well as several team officials, so their facilities are closed until at least Saturday, and their game is now officially canceled.
As far as the Vikings and Texans are concerned, that's another game in question. Minnesota played Tennessee in Week 3, so the Vikings are suspending operations temporarily. However, the latest news, with the Vikings showing zero positive tests, means that the show will go on in Houston on time Sunday barring any setbacks.
On the field, through three NFL weekends we have had more points scored than any other season through the first three weeks. Teams have combined for a ridiculous 51.0 points and 738.2 yards per game in Weeks 1 through 3. The only time in professional football when we have seen anything more comparable was in 1961 in the AFL, when teams combined to post 53.1 points per game. Is there a correlation between COVID-19, the lack of practice and poor tackling? Whatever the case may be with a lack of offseason activities, preseason games, etc., offenses are WAY ahead of defenses right now.
Some quick total notes before we break down the action.
-- The lowest total for Sunday's slate of games is in the L.A. Chargers-Tampa Bay matchup, set at 43.5. The Indianapolis-Chicago (44.5) battle is also expected to be fairly defensive oriented, too. The Chargers have hit the 'under' in each of their three contests to date, while the Buccaneers are coming off an under last week in Denver, their first of the season in three games. The Bucs defense has been the story lately, allowing just 27 points across the past two contests.
As far as the Colts are concerned, they still hit the under in their 36-7 victory against the Jets at Lucas Oil Stadium. The total just came in under 44 points despite a pair of pick-sixes by the defense. The Bears turned to QB Nick Foles in the second half of their Week 3 game in Atlanta, and he led a miraculous comeback from 26-10 down after three quarters to a 30-26 victory and an 'over' result. The Bears have hit the over in each of their two road games, both indoors, and hit the under in their only game at home, which is outdoors.
-- Keep an eye on teams traveling from coast to coast this week as we have six matchups that feature clubs traveling from Eastern Time Zone to Pacific Time Zone and vice versa.
- Arizona at Carolina
- Buffalo at Las Vegas
- L.A. Chargers at Tampa Bay
- N.Y. Giants at L.A. Rams
- Philadelphia at San Francisco
- Seattle at Miami
-- Make a note that the 'over' went 3-2 in games where the West Coast club traveled to the East Coast, or vice versa, with the over going 8-4 in 12 such games over the past three weekends.
Over-Under Line Moves
Listed below are the largest line moves for Week 4 as of Thursday.
- Baltimore at Washington: 52 to 45.5
- L.A. Chargers at Tampa Bay: 45.5 to 43
- Indianapolis at Chicago: 45 to 43
- New Orleans at Detroit: 56 to 54
- ***Minnesota at Houston: 49.5 to 54.5
- Buffalo at Las Vegas: 49.5 to 52.5
- Arizona at Carolina: 51 to 52.5
- Cleveland at Dallas: 54 to 56
*** - Game could potentially be pushed back
Listed below are the five largest leans for Week as of Thursday.
Over-Under Betting Trends
- Jacksonville at Cincinnati: Over 91%
- Seattle at Miami: Over 89%
- Buffalo at Las Vegas: Over 63%
- Baltimore at Washington: Under 95%
- L.A. Chargers at Tampa Bay: Under 87%
- N.Y. Giants at L.A. Rams: Under 86%
- Cleveland at Dallas: Under 83%
- New Orleans at Detroit: Under 80%
- Arizona at Carolina: Under 74%
Division Over-Under Notes
The 'over' went 5-1 in the NFL Divisional battles in the Week 2, according to our betting results (see below), and is 11-4 overall this season. For the second consecutive NFL weekend, in a very peculiar scheduling twist, we have ZERO divisional matchups on tap for Week 4. So we'll have to wait until Week 5 when we have five divisional matchups on tap.
Don't Believe All Trends
The Buffalo Bills and the Las Vegas Raiders hook up at Allegiant Stadium, a.k.a. "The Big Al", on Sunday afternoon. Both teams have hit the over in each of their three games so far this season. Last season the Bills had just four overs in 16 games. They were involved in a shootout with the Los Angeles Rams last weekend, winning 35-32, and they have allowed 30.0 PPG across the past two outings. Their defense is, or at least should be, much better than that. The Bills are yielding just 106.0 rushing yards per game, eighth in the NFL, but they're coughing up 274.7 passing yards per outing. The Raiders are much improved this season, obviously, after scoring just 19.6 PPG in 2019. Defensively they're slightly better, as they're only allowing 242.3 passing yards per game on defense. Plenty are betting the over in this AFC battle, but the under is more than due for both of these sides.
Week 3 featured six AFC-NFC matchups and the totals were split down the middle at 3-3. We're counting the Bengals-Eagles game as an under at 47, a game which ended in a disgusting tie for over bettors, although plenty of people got this at 45.5 at the open in some shops, or as a push for a good number of bettors. The Buccaneers-Broncos game was also an unfortunate under, as the teams combined for 33 points on a 42.5 number, only to see five total points scored in the second half. The other under, Panthers-Chargers, was the lone, true under result, as it was never much of a high-scoring affair and the right side came in.
For Week 4, the schedule features five cross-conference matchups, although again, watch the Vikings-Texans game for a possible push back:.
Baltimore at Washington: We get the 'Battle of the Beltline', and it's a shame that there will not be any fans in attendance at FedEx Field for this regional rivalry game. The Ravens might be a little ornery after scoring a season-low 20 points in their game against Kansas City on Monday night, and their defense might be worked up, too, after coughing up 34 points. The defense had allowed just 12.0 PPG prior to facing the defending champs. Despite the 34 points allowed, the 'under' hit for the third consecutive game for the boys from Charm City. Only the Chargers, and somehow the high-octane Arizona Cardinals, are the only teams to see the under go a perfect 3-0 so far. Washington was picked apart by the Cleveland Browns of all teams, falling 34-20 last week on the shores of Lake Erie. The offense continues to be rather inconsistent, averaging just 20.7 PPG, but the defense has allowed 64 over the past two for a 2-1 over/under record to date. It will be interesting to see what an angry QB Lamar Jackson can do to them Sunday.
L.A. Chargers at Tampa Bay: The Chargers head east to meet QB Tom Brady and the Buccaneers at the Ray Jay. Kickoff time will be at 10 a.m. PT, so their internal clocks could make them have a bit of a slow start. And it isn't like the Bolts have been firing out of the chute this season anyway. They scored six first-half points in Week 1 at Cincinnati, another Pacific to Eastern Time Zone trip, they scored 14 in the first half against Kansas City in their Week 2 home game, and seven last week against Carolina in a loss at home. That's just 9.0 PPG, so watch the first-half under for the Bolts. In fact, you can bet the Chargers Under 7.5 (-120), or Under 10.5 (-250) for a little more juice, for team total first-half points, and it might be a solid play. After a disappointing Week 1 in New Orleans, Brady and the Bucs have righted the ship with 59 points in the past two weeks, splitting the over/under. In their lone home game, they posted 31 in a Week 2 win over Carolina.
Indianapolis at Chicago: The public has been betting this game down since the open of 45, as apparently there isn't a lot of faith in QB Nick Foles sparking the offense in Chitown. Colts QB Philip Rivers has helped his team improve in each of the first three weeks, going from 20 to 28 to 36 points, although the 'under' has cashed in the past two with the defense allowing just 9.0 PPG. Of course, the defense also contributed to the scoring total in Week 3, too, providing a pair of pick-sixes against Jets QB Sam Darnold at Lucas Oil Stadium a week ago. So maybe that 36 isn't quite as impressive.
Minnesota at Houston: Again, there is a small chance this game could potentially be pushed back, but for now it's expected to be played in Week 4 on schedule. The total has moved from an open of 49.5 all the way up to 54.5, as apparently the public is banking on a lack of practice for the Vikings to detrimental to their tackling against the Texans. Minnesota has yielded at least 28 points in each of their first three games, so this stoppage isn't exactly what they needed. The 'under' cashed in their only game on the road, also an AFC South road game, when they lost 28-11 in Indianapolis in Week 2. The winless Texans haven't had a lot of scoring punch, posting 21 or fewer points in each of their three, but the defense has also coughed up at least 28 points in all three of their outings for a 2-1 over/under mark.
Cleveland at Dallas: The Browns looked like they might be in line for another slow start, managing just one touchdown and six points in a 38-6 whitewashing and under result in Baltimore back in Week 1. A pair of home games was the elixir they needed to get going, as they combined for 69 total points on offense in two home games against Cincinnati and Washington, both over results. The defense is still a work in progress, allowing an average of 26.0 PPG. The Cowboys are coming off a disappointing 38-31 loss in Seattle, and their defense has been equally disappointing. The Pokes D has yielded 38.5 PPG over the past two outings, while the offense is good for 35.5 PPG during the span. They have hit the over easily in the past two. In fact, they have smashed the over by 25.5 points in Week 2, and by 12 points in Week 3.
-- The 'over' ended up just 1-2 in the primetime games last week, with the Packers and Saints hooking up in an entertaining track meet at the Mercedes-Benz Superdome in New Orleans on Sunday Night Football. Last season the SNF game was 8-1 to the 'under' through the first nine on the schedule, and we've already exceeded that with two overs in three weeks.
-- Including that result, the 'over-under' sits at 5-5 in primetime games this season.
Sunday Night Football Notes
The Philadelphia Eagles and San Francisco 49ers lock horns at Levi's Stadium in Santa Clara on SNF. The 49ers had a successful two-week stay on the East Coast with back-to-back wins at MetLife Stadium against the New York Jets and New York Giants. They found their offense, too, even with a slew of injuries, as the 49ers averaging 33.5 PPG while allowing just 11.0 PPG, hitting the over in both games after an under in Week 1. That happened without QB Jimmy Garoppolo, RB Raheem Mostert and TE George Kittle, among others, and most, if not all, of those guys will be back this week.
The Eagles hit the over in the first two games, mainly due to a lack of defense, as they allowed 32.0 PPG during that span. The over probably should be 3-0 for Philly, but they tied 23-23 against Cincinnati last week, and no one really even threatened to score in overtime. Remember, SNF games are 2-1 so far this season.
Monday Night Football Notes
The Atlanta Falcons and Green Bay Packers square off on Monday night at Lambeau Field. The Falcons had another awful collapse in Week 3, and their defense imploded in the fourth quarter yet again. They are allowing an insane 15.3 PPG in the fourth quarter alone this season, and 30.0 PPG overall through three games, all 'over' results. That isn't good news for the Falcons, as they face a Packers offense which ranks No. 1 in the NFL with 40.7 PPG, and Green Bay has also hit the over in each of their three contests to date. Monday's game opened at 57.5.
These teams last met on Dec. 9, 2018, a 34-20 victory by the Packers in Lambeau. Each of the past five meetings in this series have gone 'over'.
- Dec. 9, 2018 - Green Bay 34 vs. Atlanta 20 -- Over 50.5
- Sept. 17, 2017 - Atlanta 34 vs. Green Bay 23 -- Over 55
- Jan. 22, 2017 - Atlanta 44 vs. Green Bay 21 -- Over 59.5 (playoffs)
- Oct. 30, 2016 - Atlanta 33 vs. Green Bay 30 (OT) -- Over 51
- Dec. 8, 2015 - Green Bay 43 vs. Atlanta 37 -- Over 54.5
It was a nice week, as I was able to hit all four of my predictions last week. Luckily I posted my pick for the Cincinnati-Philadelphia game at 45.5 points, as they headed to overtime tied 23-23 and were unable to find a winner. The Carolina-L.A. Chargers game was a slam-dunk under which was never threatened, and Dallas-Seattle was the high-scoring game that was expected. For the week I ended up at (+$435). Through three weeks I am in the black at ($625). We'll keep cooking in Week 4 with four more wagers.
- Best Over: Arizona-Carolina 52
- Best Under: Jacksonville-Cincinnati 49.5
- Best First-Half Total: L.A. Chargers-Tampa Under 22
Three-Team Total Teaser (+7, +135)
- Under Baltimore-Washington 53
- Over Buffalo-Las Vegas 46
- Over Atlanta-Green Bay (MNF) 50.5
Week 3 & Overall Betting Results
Depending when and where you placed your bets, the ‘over’ went 9-7 in Week 2, and the over has a 29-19 (60%) advantage to date.
|Week 3 Total Results|