Betting Recap – Week 6

VegasInsider Staff Sports Betting Expert

16 minute read

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Overall Notes

The largest underdogs to win straight up

• Broncos (+7.5, ML +290) at Patriots, 18-12
• Falcons (+3.5, ML +170) at Vikings, 40-23
• Buccaneers (+2.5, ML +130) vs. Packers, 38-10
• 49ers (+2.5, ML +110) vs. Rams, 24-16

The largest favorites to cover

• Dolphins (-8.5) vs. Jets, 24-0
• Chiefs (-5.5) at Bill, 26-17
• Titans (-4) vs. Texans, 42-36 (OT)
• Lions (-3) at Jaguars, 34-16
• Steelers (-3) vs. Browns, 38-7

The Biggest Disappointment of the Week

The Green Bay Packers-Tampa Bay Buccaneers game in the late afternoon window on Sunday was expected to be one of the two best games of Week 6. The Cleveland Browns-Pittsburgh Steelers game in the early window was expected to be a good battle, but that turned out to be a dud. The Pack and Bucs was a good battle for about a quarter and a half, and then it went downhill, too.

The Packers fired out to a 10-0 lead after one quarter, and the favorites looked like they were going to be in control. However, Jamel Dean had a pick-six against QB Aaron Rodgers, and the Bucs scored their first touchdown with their defense. Just 100 seconds later, it was Ronald Jones II punching in a 2-yard touchdown, and the home side was up 14-10, and they would not look back. They scored two more touchdowns by halftime, leading 28-10, and the over (55) was looking good, right?

The Bucs posted 10 more points, giving them 38 unanswered points, and over bettors were just seven points shy of a push heading into the final quarter. Unfortunately for over bettors, there were ZERO points in the final quarter. It wasn't quite a bad beat, but over bettors were likely feeling very good after 45 minutes, only to have the carpet whipped out from under their feet.

The Biggest Disappointment of the Week - Part II

The Houston Texans-Jackonville Jaguars game was a seesaw battle, and Texans (+4) side bettors had to be feeling good when the visitors went ahead 36-29 with 1:50 to go in regulation. However, A.J. Brown reeled in a seven-yard touchdown, and Tennessee elected for the point after rather than the two-point conversion try with four seconds remaining, forcing overtime. Houston moneyline bettors were dejected, but side bettors catching the six were feeling OK. Right?

Well, with 6:30 to go in the extra session, Derrick Henry scored from five yards out, and the touchdown ended things. Instead of a cover, moneyline bettors were holding a losing ticket, and so were side bettors. Ouch.

Total Recall

The lowest total on the board on the Sunday slate was the Washington Football Team-New York Giants (42) game, and the bookmakers were close to being right on the nose. The Giants gritted out a 20-19 home victory, their first of the season. A scoreless third quarter tossed over bettors off pace, and despite a total of 16 points in a final quarter flurry, this NFC cellar-dweller battle ended up as an 'under' result. The under is now 4-2 in six games overall for the G-Men, including 2-1 at home. They're averaging just 15.0 PPG in three games at MetLife Stadium.

The highest total on Sunday's board was the aforementioned Packers-Bucs game (see above). The second-highest game was the Atlanta Falcons-Minnesota Vikings (53.5) battle. The Falcons fired out to a 20-0 lead at halftime, and the under was well on pace. The Falcons posted 10 points in each quarter, but over bettors needed the Vikings to show up if they were going to cash. They did, eventually, as the Vikings posted 16 points in the final quarter to inch the total over the finish line with 63 total points.

The Sunday night game between Los Angeles Rams-San Francisco 49ers (51) went well 'under', with just 13 total points in the final 30 minutes. The first-half 'over' did end up hitting with 27 total points. The rescheduled Kansas City Chiefs-Buffalo Bills (56) and the Arizona Cardinals-Dallas Cowboys (55) game on Monday were supposed to give us fireworks. However, a steady light rain in Buffalo tamped scores down, and only the Arizona offense showed up in a 38-10 win for the Cards. QB Andy Dalton looked bad in his first start. Really bad.

So far this season the over is 8-12 (40.0%) across 20 primetime games. In 2019, the 'over' was just 17-31-1 (35.4%) during primetime games.

Looking Ahead to Week 7

New York Giants at Philadelphia Eagles (Thursday, 8:20 p.m. ET)

The Giants hit the road with a quick turnaround, but at least it's a quick jaunt down to the City of Brotherly Love. They're coming off their first victory of the season, 20-19, over Washington. The Eagles made a valiant comeback, but fell just short against the Baltimore Ravens on Sunday, 30-28. Philly swept the season series in 2019, winning 23-17 in Philadelphia in overtime on a Monday night game in early December, and they doubled up the G-Men 34-17 in Week 17 in the Meadowlands. They also swept the season series in 2017 and 2018, too. In fact, Philadelphia hasn't lost to the Giants in the past seven meetings, although New York has covered its past three trips to Lincoln Financial Field.

Cleveland Browns at Cincinnati Bengals (Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET)

The Browns were knocked down a peg, falling 38-7 in Pittsburgh on Sunday. They're 4-0 SU/3-1 ATS in four games against everyone other than the Ravens and Steelers. Against those two division rivals the Browns are 0-2 SU/ATS, and they're averaging just 6.5 PPG while allowing 38.0 PPG. They'll play their final road divisional game of the season, and it's a rematch with the Bengals. Cincinnati picked up a backdoor cover in Week 2 in a Thursday game in Cleveland, covering a six-point number in a 35-30 loss. QB Baker Mayfield (ribs) aggravated his rib injury in Pittsburgh, so that will be a situation to watch here.

Pittsburgh Steelers at Tennessee Titans (Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET)

As mentioned, the Steelers bludgeoned the Browns, and they remain unbeaten. They'll take on the other big kid on the AFC block, as the Titans are also unbeaten. The Steelers are 5-0 SU/4-1 ATS, including a cover in their only road game back in Week 1 against the Giants. After failing to cover in their first three wins, the Titans are 2-0 ATS in the past two while hitting the 'over' in four consecutive contests. Tennessee has scored 31 or more points in four in a row, too. Of course, the Browns had scored 30 or more points in four in a row heading into Week 6, and the Steelers defense completely shut them down, so we'll see what happens.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Las Vegas Raiders (Sunday, 8:20 p.m. ET)

The Buccaners flexed a little muscle against the Packers, winning 38-10 in a bummer of a game. It was great for Tampa, but a bummer for NFL fans who wanted to see a good game between two future Hall of Fame quarterbacks. The Bucs are already 2-0 SU/1-1 ATS in two games against AFC West teams, including a win and road cover against the Denver Broncos back in Week 3. While the Bucs are 4-2 SU overall, they're just 1-2 SU/ATS in three road contests to date. The Raiders are coming off a bye, resting in Week 6 after their 40-32 road win against the Kansas City Chiefs. In a SNF game back in Week 2, the Raiders pushed past the Saints 34-24 to cover as four-point home 'dogs at Allegiant Stadium, a.k.a. 'The Big Al'. We'll see if they can remain hot on the Strip.

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