Betting Recap – Week 10

VegasInsider Staff Sports Betting Expert

17 minute read

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Overall Notes

The largest underdogs to win straight up

• Patriots (+7, ML +270) vs. Ravens, 23-17
• Giants (+4.5, ML +185) vs. Eagles, 27-17

The largest favorites to cover

• Saints (-9.5) vs. 49ers, 27-13
• Steelers (-7) vs. Bengals, 36-10
• Buccaneers (-6) at Panthers, 46-23
• Raiders (-3.5) vs. Broncos, 37-12
• Vikings (-3.5) at Bears (MNF), 19-13

The Biggest Disappointment of the Week

The Houston Texans-Cleveland Browns (46) matchup was boring. Boring, unless you like wild weather, defense and 'under' results, that is.

The Browns posted a field goal in the first half, and they led 3-0 through three quarters against the Texans in the wind and rain along the shores of Lake Erie. It's the second consecutive low-scoring weather game in Cleveland, and neither the Week 8 home loss to the Las Vegas Raiders, 16-6, or Sunday's 10-7 win over the Texans will be used in the Cleveland Chamber of Commerce video.

The Browns took a 10-0 lead with a RB Nick Chubb fourth-quarter touchdown run, and Texans (+4) side bettors were feeling awful. How could an offense with QB Deshaun Watson get blanked by a Browns D which had allowed 31.6 PPG across its first seven games? Well, the Texans were eventually able to break through for the backdoor cover, as Watson struck with a TD to TE Pharaoh Brown in the closing minutes of regulation.

Browns side bettors were exhilirated late, as Chubb broke through again for a 59-yard gallop and he was headed for the end zone and a cover in the final minute. Well, that is until he elected to voluntarily step out at the Houston 1-yard line. Instead of scoring and giving the ball back to the Texans, the Browns ended up kneeling twice to run out the clock, winning 10-7. The underdog held on for the cover, and Browns side bettors were left shaking their heads.

The Biggest Disappointment of the Week - Part II

The Buffalo Bills-Arizona Cardinals (56) game will be remembered forever, as we had one of the craziest finishes in recent history. If you were a moneyline bettor for the Bills (+130), or you were holding an under ticket from earlier in the week when the total was 56.5, you were likely pulling your hair out.

The Bills struck for a 21-yard diving touchdown grab from WR Stefon Diggs from QB Josh Allen, putting the visitors up 30-26. It looked like that was going to be the game-winning play with just 34 seconds left in regulation, and the Cardinals having to drive the entire field. But there was more. Much more.

With just two seconds remaining, QB Kyler Murray evaded pressure, spun to his left and threw up a prayer to the left corner of the end zone into a sea of defenders. WR DeAndre Hopkins outjumped three white jerseys for the 43-yard miracle touchdown in what is being called the 'Hail Murray' play. The total was a push at most shops before the miracle play, but the touchdown made it an 'over' across the board.

That's not all, though. Arizona lined up for the two-point conversion, but that was to avoid a potential blocked extra point getting returned by the Bills. Instead, the Cardinals elected to take a knee. If they would have kicked the extra point, they would have pushed on the -3 line at most shops, and if they went on to covert for two, they would have covered. Crazy finish!

The Biggest Disappointment of the Week - Part III

The Baltimore Ravens-New England Patriots (44) saw the same cold front and inclement weather which passed through Cleveland earlier in the day. We had a scoreless first quarter, but then a total of 23 points in the second quarter, and 17 in the third. There were 40 points on the board heading to the fourth, but that's when the weather picked up.

We saw zero points in the final 15 minutes, and the Ravens got the ball back in a deluge in the final minutes. QB Lamar Jackson tried to make it happen on the ground, but was forced to have to take to the air in a driving rain. It didn't work out well, and they weren't even able to get past midfield before turning it over on downs. It ended with a total of 40 points, short of the total thanks to the scoreless fourth.

Total Recall

The lowest total on the board for the Sunday slate was the aforementioned Ravens-Patriots game.

The highest number on the board was the Bills-Cardinals game mentioned above, too. The second-highest game on the board was the Seattle Seahawks-Los Angeles Rams (55.5), and the 'over' was never threated. Seattle actually showed up and played defense for once.

The first quarter started looking like it might be a track meet, totaling 17 points through 15 minutes. We also had 30 points on the board at halftime, so it was on track for an 'over'. But we saw just nine points in the second half, cashing the 'under' rather comfortably.

In the three primetime games of Week 10, the under went 2-1. Thursday's game between the Indianapolis Colts-Tennessee Titans (49) saw just seven points in the fourth quarter, but that was enough in the 34-17 win for Indy, cashing the 'over'. The primetime game was the soggy Ravens-Patriots battle, with the Minnesota Vikings-Chicago Bears (43.5) battle on Monday Night Football was a defensive battle, too.

So far this season the under is 21-11 (65.6%) across 32 primetime games. In 2019, the 'under' went 31-17-1 (64.6%) during primetime games.

Looking Ahead to Week 11

Arizona Cardinals at Seattle Seahawks (Thursday, 8:20 p.m. ET)

The total for Thursday's NFC West Division showdown opened with the highest total of Week 11 at 56.5, and it quickly shot up to 57.5 in the matter of a few hours. That's likely due to Arizona hitting the 'over' in three consecutive games, going for 32, 31 and 37 in the past three games, including a 37-34 overtime win by the Cardinals on Sunday Night Football in Week 7. The Cardinals are hoisting up 29.6 PPG to rank seventh in the NFL, and they're first in total yards (425.4) and rushing yards (168.9) per game. For the Seahawks, they hit the 'under' in Week 10 in a 23-16 loss to the Rams, snapping a 3-0 'over' run.

Miami Dolphins at Denver Broncos (Sunday, 4:05 p.m. ET)

The Dolphins have rolled to five consecutive victories, moving to 6-3 SU overall. They have not only won five in a row, but they have covered every game, too, and they're 7-1 ATS in the past eight outings. For the Broncos, they're licking their wounds after a 37-12 beatdown from the Raiders in Vegas. QB Drew Lock tossed four interceptions, as the mistake-prone Broncos dropped their third in the past four, and they're also 1-3 ATS during the span. The 'under' result on Sunday, by just one point, snapped a 3-0 'over' run for the Broncos.

Kansas City Chiefs at Las Vegas Raiders (Sunday, 8:20 p.m. ET)

The Raiders have won three in a row since a 45-20 thrashing from the Buccaneers in Week 7. They have also covered those three games with the 'under' connecting in two of the outings. This will be the second battle betwen the Chiefs and Raiders this season, with the first installment going to Vegas, 40-32 in Kansas City in Week 5. That helped the Raiders win as 11-point underdogs while easily hitting the 'over'. The Chiefs are coming off its bye week. Kansas City has won four straight while covering three of the past four since that loss against the Raiders. K.C. has tossed up 33, 35, 43 and 26 in the past four outings, and they have scored 26 or more points in seven consecutive contests.

Los Angeles Rams at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET)

The Rams make the cross-country trek to Central Florida looking to win consecutive games for the first time since Oct. 4-11, but that was against the Giants and Football Team, not terribly impressive. L.A. is coming off a 23-16 win over the Seahawks, cashing on a three-point number while the 'under' (55) easily connected. The 'under' has hit in six straight games for the Rams. L.A. hasn't covered in back-to-back games since Week 1-2. For the Bucs, they bounced back with a 46-23 stomping of the Panthers on Sunday. After tossing up a season-low three points in Week 9 against the Saints, they scored a season-high 46. That's quite the rebound.

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