Betting Recap – Week 11

VegasInsider Staff Sports Betting Expert

19 minute read

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Overall Notes

The largest underdogs to win straight up

• Cowboys (+7, ML +260) at Vikings, 31-28
• Titans (+6, ML +220) at Ravens, 30-24 (OT)
• Rams (+4.5, ML +175) at Buccaneers, 27-24 (MNF)
• Broncos (+4, ML +180) at Broncos, 20-13
• Panthers (+3, ML +144) vs. Lions, 20-0
• Texans (+2.5, ML +122) vs. Patriots, 27-20

The largest favorites to cover

• Steelers (-10.5) at Jaguars, 27-3
• Saints (-3.5) vs. Falcons, 24-9
• Browns (-2.5) vs. Eagles, 22-17
• Colts (-1.5) vs. Packers, 34-31 (OT)
• Washington (-1.5) vs. Bengals, 20-9

The Biggest Disappointment of the Week

The Kansas City Chiefs-Las Vegas Raiders matchup was a little disappointing if you were holding a Raiders money line (+290) ticket.

The Raiders hit the winner in Week 5 as 10.5-point underdogs at Arrowhead Stadium, winning 40-32, and they felt it was worthy of a victory lap after the big win over their rivals. The Chiefs remembered, and didn't want to see it happen again on Sunday Night Football at Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas.

It was a seesaw affair at the 'Big Al', as the teams exchanged haymakers in the first quarter with a 2-yard touchdown run by RB Josh Jacobs, before a 3-yard touchdown from Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes to WR Tyreek Hill. On the final play of the first, QB Derek Carr hit WR Nelson Agholor on a highlight reel 17-yard touchdown to make it 14-7.

Early in the second, Chiefs rookie RB Clyde Edwards-Helaire punched one in from three yards out, and PK Daniel Carlson ended the first-half scoring, much to the delight of Raiders first-half backers (+4) and first-half money line bettors (+150), with Vegas up 17-14.

The third quarter saw just Edwards-Helaire with a 14-yard touchdown, his second scoring run of the evening, and the Chiefs were back up 21-17. 'Under' (56.5) bettors were a little nervous, needing 19 points in the final 15 minutes. That nervousness was not necessary.

Raiders TE Darren Waller opened the scoring with a 3-yard TD snare from Carr, making it 24-21 in favor of the home side. With just 5:54 to go, RB Le'Veon Bell cracked off a 6-yard touchdown to make it 28-24. TE Jason Witten put the Raiders back on top with 1:43 to go, as the Raiders officially clinched the game cover (+7.5), as well as giving 'over' bettors a winning ticket, up 31-28.

But the final score came with 1:43 to go. That's 103 seconds for the defending Super Bowl MVP. It was 28 seconds too many. Mahomes tricked a member of the secondary who bit on the quarterback scramble, and Mahomes threw a 22-yard dart to TE Travis Kelce, who was wide open in the end zone. Game. Set. Match. No money line winner for the Silver and Black.

The Biggest Disappointment of the Week - Part II

The New England Patriots-Houston Texans (49.5) wasn't really a bad beat, but it was a disappointment if you were an 'over' bettor. If you were an 'under' bettor, you were not crying.

The teams combined for 31 points by halftime, with Houston up 21-10 at the break. After 10 points in the third quarter, over bettors were feeling pretty good heading into the final 15, with 41 points on the board. However, the teams exchanged only field goals in the fourth, and Houston held out for the 27-20.

The Biggest Disappointment of the Week - Part II

Cincinnati Bengals QB Joe Burrow going down early in the third quarter with a season-ending injury in their 20-9 setback on the road against the Washington Football Team is disappointing. The Bengals were winning 9-7 at the time, winning outright as 1.5-point 'dogs.

Washington marched straight down the field on the ensuing drive and took a 14-9 lead, and it's a lead they wouldn't relinquish. In fact, the Bengals wouldn't score again as they slipped to 2-7-1 with six to go.

In addition, if you are holding an 'over' five wins ticket for the season for Cincinnati, you might as well shred that one now. QB Ryan Finley was horrible in Burrow's stead, and the Bengals are back to being the Bungles.

Total Recall

The lowest total on the board for the Sunday slate was the Philadelphia Eagles-Cleveland Browns (45.5) tilt at FirstEnergy Stadium. While we didn't see the frozen precipitation or bone-chilling temperatures like we did the last two games in Cleveland, a 16-6 loss to the Raiders, and a 10-7 win over the Houston Texans, there was a 90 percent chance of rain for Sunday's game, and Mother Nature didn't disappoint.

It was a soggy, ugly, rainy game, and under bettors were treated to double aughts in the first quarter. A defensive touchdown on a pick-six by Sione Takitaki was the only score. At halftime, the Browns carried a 7-0 lead into the room to dry out and warm up. Defense reigned supreme in the third quarter, too, as we had a safety.

There were some uncomfortable moments for under bettors in the fourth, as the teams exchanged 10s to get the total to 39. But thankfully we had a QB Carson Wentz red-zone pick, and the Eagles weren't able to grab the onside kick after TE Dallas Goedert scored with 30 seconds left.

The highest total on the board Sunday was the SNF game between the Chiefs and Raiders, and we broke that down above. After Thursday's primetime game between the Arizona Cardinals-Seattle Seahawks (57) hit the 'under' at 28-21, the over still ended up 2-1 as the Los Angeles Rams-Tampa Bay Buccaneers (48) Monday night battle hit the 'over' with 51 total points.

So far this season the under is 22-13 (62.9%) across 35 primetime games. In 2019, the 'under' went 31-17-1 (64.6%) during primetime games.

Looking Ahead to Week 12

Washington Football Team at Dallas Cowboys (Thursday, 4:30 p.m. ET)

The bad news. On Thanksgiving, we get two 3-7 battling for a win in the middle game. The good news is that it should be an even game with plenty of storylines. And, believe it or not, these two teams are each just a half-game out of first place when normally your season would essentially be over four games under .500 after 10 games.

We also get the QB Andy Dalton revenge game. Dalton was knocked out of the first meeting in Week 7 by a cheap shot, sending him into the concussion protocol. Enter QB Ben DiNucci, and he didn't have it, as the Football Team won 25-3 in that late October battle in D.C. DiNucci started one game, then QB Garrett Gilbert started another, but the Cowboys were winless in the two games without Dalton. He returned and led the Cowboys to an upset win at Minnesota to make a big difference.

Dallas has won each of the past four home games against Washington, scoring 31 or more points in each of those games. But, of course, that was with QB Dak Prescott at the helm, too.

Baltimore Ravens at Pittsburgh Steelers (Thursday, 8:20 p.m. ET)

The Ravens head to the Steel City on Turkey Day (well, night), looking to avenge a 28-24 loss at M&T Bank Stadium in Week 8. It was Pittsburgh's seventh win of the season against no losses, and After their 27-3 win at Jacksonville in Week 11, they're still filing a goose egg in the loss column. That's 10 up and 10 down for the Steelers, and they have covered eight times in those 10 games, including 7-1 ATS across the past eight.

The Ravens have won the past two trips to Heinz Field, including a thrilling 26-23 overtime win last season, and a 26-14 win in 2018. Baltimore has won four of the past six in Pittsburgh straight-up, and six of the past 10 outright at the confluence.

Miami Dolphins at New York Jets (Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET)

The Dolphins are coming off a 20-13 loss at Denver, snapping a five-game winning streak, and it's a game which saw rookie QB Tua Tagovailoa benched for QB Ryan Fitzpatrick, as head coach Brian Flores looked for a spark. It didn't happen, as the Broncos won as four-point 'dogs. The Jets put up a pretty impressive effort in L.A., covering a 9.5-point number against the Chargers, but they remain winless at 0-10. It was their third cover of the season, however, and the 'over' result was their fifth in 10 outings. Flores did promise Tua will be back as starter in Week 12.

These teams met in Miami back in Week 6, and the Jets scored as many points as you and I, losing 24-0 as 10-point 'dogs as the 'under' (46) connected. Miami has won five of their past eight trips to New Jersey outright, and they have won seven of the previous nine overall in this series.

The Dolphins opened as touchdown favorites on the road against Gang Green.

Chicago Bears at Green Bay Packers (Sunday, 8:20 p.m. ET)

The Bears are coming off a bye. The Packers are coming off a disappointing 34-31 overtime loss on the road against the Indianapolis Colts. Both teams are going to be ornery.

This is the first of two meetings in the final six games for these rivals, with the Packers up two games over the Bears in the NFC North Division at 7-3 (vs. 5-5). The Packers have dominated this series in the regular season and postseason, winning 16 of the past 19 meetings in this series overall, including nine of the past 10 trips to Chitown, including that NFC Championship Game win in the 2010 playoffs. Last season's win in Chicago was just 10-3 for Green Bay, and the Bears clinched the NFC North in the 2018 meeting at Soldier Field while eliminating the Packers from the playoffs, so even if the teams appear to be on different planes, expect a rough and tumble affair that will be close.

The biggest question is the health of QB Nick Foles, who was knocked out in the final minute of last Monday's game against Minnesota. The good news is that he didn't sustain a fractured hip, but it's uncertain if he'll be ready, if QB Mitchell Trubisky (shoulder) will be ready, or if we might see QB Tyler Bray. The quarterback situation obviously will make a huge difference on who to back, and what to play on the total. Stay tuned.

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VegasInsider Staff

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