Over-Under NFL Week 13 Total Predictions, Odds

VegasInsider Staff Sports Betting Expert

20 minute read

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Handicapping Week 13 Totals

-- We're on to Week 13 of the NFL regular season, and we have a handful of injury concerns for a host of teams.

-- The New York Giants might be without QB Daniel Jones for their game against the Seattle Seahawks. He did not practice Wednesday. As such, QB Colt McCoy is expected to get the nod under center for the first-place G-Men.

-- Arizona Cardinals QB Kyler Murray (shoulder) was listed as a limited participant for Wednesday's practice session.

-- Detroit Lions QB Matthew Stafford (thumb) and RB D'Andre Swift (concussion) were each limited in practice. It's possible both will be ready to go Sunday against the Chicago Bears.

-- Atlanta Falcons RB Todd Gurley (knee), WR Julio Jones (hamstring and WR Calvin Ridley (ankle, foot) were each listed as limited participants in the first practice of the week. The trio has a chance to suit up against the New Orleans Saints, drastically changing the potential offensive output for Atlanta.

-- Las Vegas Raiders RB Josh Jacobs (ankle) did not practice on Wednesday, so that's a major injury to watch heading into the Week 13 road game against the New York Jets.

-- The Minnesota Vikings activated WR Adam Thielen from the Reserve/COVID list, so he should be good to go for Sunday's game against the visiting Jacksonville Jaguars.

-- New England Patriots QB Cam Newton (abdomen) was listed as a limited participant on Wednesday. If he cannot go it would be QB Jarrett Stidham getting the nod, but we have plenty of time before that might possibly happen. The good news Cam and the Patriots, Los Angeles Chargers DE Joey Bosa (shin) did not practice.

-- The Philadelphia Eagles activated TE Zach Ertz (ankle) from the Reserve/Injured list, and it appears he might be able to play this weekend on the road against the Green Bay Packers.

Over-Under Line Moves

We've had a decent amount of movement for several totals in Week 13. Bettors have reacted early and often.

Down

• Indianapolis at Houston: 53 to 51
• N.Y. Giants at Seattle: 48.5 to 46.5
• Philadelphia at Green Bay: 48.5 to 46.5
• New England at L.A. Chargers: 49 to 47.5
• New Orleans at Atlanta: 47.5 to 46
• Detroit at Chicago: 45.5 to 44.5
• Las Vegas at N.Y. Jets: 48 to 47

Up

• Denver at Kansas City (SNF): 48 to 51
• Jacksonville at Minnesota: 49.5 to 52
• Cleveland at Tennessee: 52 to 54

Over-Under Betting Trends

Listed below are the largest leans for Week 13 as of Thursday.

• Arizona at New England: Over 94%
• Carolina at Minnesota: Over 94%
• Cleveland at Jacksonville: Over 94%
• L.A. Chargers at Buffalo: Over 90%

• Baltimore at Pittsburgh: Under 96%
• Seattle at Philadelphia (MNF): Under 89%
• Miami at N.Y. Jets: Under 86%
• N.Y. Giants at Cincinnati: Under 70%
• Las Vegas at Atlanta: Under 65%

Division Over-Under Notes

The 'under' went 3-3 in the six NFL Divisional battles in Week 12, and the 'over/under' is now tied 30-29-1 (50.8%) overall this season. We have five divisional matchups on tap for Sunday.

Detroit at Chicago: The Lions were dumped 41-25 on Thanksgiving afternoon, falling to the visiting Houston Texans. The 'over' cashed in that one, as the Lions offense at least bounced back following a 20-0 shutout loss at Carolina the previous week. The 'over' has cashed in four of the past five games for the Lions.

Detroit will have a new head coach, as Darrell Bevell takes over as the interim HC in place of the fired Matt Patricia. We saw the Texans fire head coach Bill O'Brien in early October, then bounce back the following week with a win and an 'under' result. The Falcons canned head coach Dan Quinn after their Oct. 11 loss at home to Carolina. The Falcons won 40-23 at Minnesota in Week 6 in interim head coach Raheem Morris' debut, as the 'over' connected.

For the Lions, the 'over' is 4-1 across their past five overall, but the 'under' is 4-1 in their past five games on the road. The 'under' is 13-3 in the past 16 games at home for the Bears, while going 6-2 in their past eight games overall. The 'under' is 6-2 in the past eight meetings in the Windy City, too.

Indianapolis at Houston:  The Colts are coming off a disappointing 45-26 loss at Lucas Oil Stadium last week. The good news, at least for 'over' bettors, was that the over hit for a third consecutive game. The 'over' is also 6-1 in the past seven games overall for Indy. 

The Texans hit the 'over' on Thanksgiving in Detroit, rolling up a season-high 41 points in their win. The 'over' is 4-1 in Houston's five games on the road, but the 'under' is 4-1 in their five games at home this season.

In this series, the under is 6-2 in the past eight meetings, and a perfect 4-0 in the past four in Houston.

New Orleans at Atlanta: The Saints defense has been on a serious roll, as they have allowed just 3, 9, 13 and 3 across the past four outings, with the 'under' going 4-0 during the span. That includes a 24-9 home win over the Falcons in Week 11 at the Mercedes-Benz Superdome.

The Falcons racked up a 43-6 win over the Las Vegas Raiders last week. The 'under' has connected in four of the past five outings, thanks to a defense which has improved under Morris. They have allowed 6, 24, 28, 17, 23 and 23 over the past six games since Morris took the reins, or an average of 20.2 PPG. That's an amazing turnaround after allowing 32.2 PPG in the first five games under Quinn, all losses.

L.A. Rams at Arizona:  The Rams are looking to bounce back after a disappointing 23-20 loss at home to the 49ers as the 'under' connected. The under is now an impressive 7-1 over the previous eight for the Rams, including 3-0 in their three previous game inside the NFC West Division. They have yet to face the Cardinals this season, but will see them twice in the next five weeks.

For the Cardinals, they hit the 'under' in a cross-country trip to Atlanta. The offense has had a bit of a power outage in the past two, averaging just 19.0 PPG, nearly nine points under their season average of 27.6 PPG, which ranks eighth in the NFL. Surprisingly, the 'under' is 7-3 in Arizona's 10 games this season.

In this series, the 'under' is 11-5 in the past 16 meetings in Arizona.

Denver at Kansas City (SNF):  (see below)

Non-Conference Angles

Week 12 featured six non-conference matchups and the totals result in a 5-1 advantage to the under.

We have four more AFC vs. NFC battles on tap for the Week 13 schedule.

 Jacksonville at Minnesota: The one-win Jaguars hit the road to meet the Vikings. The last time (and only time this season) they faced an NFC North team this season, the Jaguars hit the 'under' in a 24-20 loss at Green Bay in Week 10. Both of their previous games against NFC North teams have hit the 'under'. The Jaguars have allowed 20.0 PPG across the past nine outings overall.

For the Vikings, they outlasted the Panthers 28-27 as the 'over' hit last week, and the over is 5-1 in the past six games overall for Minnesota. They faced AFC South teams in three straight games from Week 2 through 4, hitting the 'over' in two of those contests, including their only home game against a South team, in Week 3 against Tennessee.

Buffalo at San Francisco (MNF):  (see below)

Washington at Pittsburgh (Mon.): (see below)

Dallas at Baltimore (Tues.):  (see below)

Primetime Points

SNF | MNF | TNF

-- The 'over/under' finished 1-1 in the two primetime games in Week 12, and if you include the Baltimore Ravens-Pittsburgh Steelers rescheduled game Tuesday (originally set to be Thursday night), the under was 2-1. The 'under' has produced a 22-16 (57.9%) clip in 38 primetime games so far this season. 

Sunday Night Football Notes

The Denver Broncos-Kansas City Chiefs meet for the second time this season. The Chiefs dusted the Broncos 43-16 in Denver on Oct. 25 as the 'over' hit. Overs have been a rarity lately, as the Broncos have hit the 'under' in each of the past three outings, averaging just 11.7 PPG on offense while allowing 27.0 PPG. The Broncos were forced to start a practice-squad call-up last week at quarterback, as WR Kendall Hinton made the start. This week the Broncos are taking no changes, keeping QB Blake Bortles in isolation so last week's situation never happens again.

The Chiefs hit the 'under' in a marquee win over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers last Sunday. The 'under' is 4-2 in Kansas City's six games on the road this season, while the 'over' is 3-2 in five home games, including their only home game against a divisional foe. They was a 40-32 loss in Week 5 against the Raiders, their only setback of the season.

In this series the 'over' is 3-1-1 in the past five meetings in Kansas City, while the 'under' is 3-1-1 in the past five meetings overall.

Monday Night Football Notes

The Washington Football Team-Pittsburgh Steelers game was moved to Monday at 5:00 p.m. ET because of the odyssey which was Week 12 for the Steelers vs. Ravens.

Washington posted a season-high 41 points in a 25-point road victory against the Cowboys on Thanksgiving Day. The previous high was 27 points, set in Week 1 and Week 10. Washington has been on fire with 41, 20, 27, 20, 25 in the past five games, an average of 26.6 PPG, after averaging just 18.0 PPG across the first six outings. The 'over' is 2-1 in Washington's previous three against AFC North foes.

The unbeaten Steelers snuck past the Ravens in an ugly 19-14 defensive tilt. The 'under' is now 3-0-1 in the past four games overall for Pittsburgh, thanks in large part to the defense. Pittsburgh has allowed 14, 3, 10 and 19 over the past four outings.

The Buffalo Bills-San Francisco 49ers will square off in the traditional MNF game at 8:15 p.m. ET for a Monday doubleheader, and it's like Week 1 all over again with two games on a Monday. Thanks, COVID! (not really)

The Bills cashed a rare 'under' in Week 12 against the Chargers after coming off a bye. The 'over' was 3-0 in the previous three games from Week 8 through 10, and the 'over' went 7-2-1 in the first 10 games overall. The 'over' is also a perfect 3-0 in three games for Buffalo against NFC West teams this season, including 35-32 win over the Rams (46.5), a 44-34 win over the Seahawks (55.5) and a 32-30 road loss to the Cardinals (56).

Tuesday Night Football Notes

The Cowboys and Ravens will meet in a Tuesday game, as the Ravens were pushed back a week due to COVID. Originally this game was supposed to be a Thursday night game in Week 13.

Dallas has hit the 'over' in each of the past two games, averaging 23.5 PPG while allowing 34.5 PPG. It's been a season of streak for the Cowboys, as the 'over' went 4-0 from Weeks 2 through 5, the 'under' went 4-0 from Weeks 6 through 9, and now the current 'over' run.

For the Ravens, they were dropped 19-14 in Pittsburgh, hitting the 'under' with QB Robert Griffin III under center subbing for Lamar Jackson (Reserve/COVID). The 'under' is now 3-1 in the past four for Baltimore, as they have scored 14, 24, 17 and 24 across the past four outings. After the under went 3-0 in Baltimore's first three at home, the over is 2-0 in their past two in Charm City.

Fearless Predictions

I was stuck in neutral in Week 12, going (-$10), and overall I am a dismal (-$855) for the season. We'll look for a plus-number in Week 13 with four more wagers to build that bankroll back up.

• Best Over: Over 51 Denver at Kansas City
• Best Under: Under 52.5 Jacksonville at Minnesota
• Best First-Half Total: Under 24.5 L.A. Rams at Arizona

• Under 59.5 Jacksonville at Minnesota
• Over 44 Indianapolis at Houston
• Under 55.5 L.A. Rams at Arizona

Week 12 & Overall Betting Results

Depending when and where you placed your bets, the ‘under’ went 10-6 in Week 12, and the over has a 91-84-2 (52.0%) advantage to date. 

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