Last Updated Aug 30, 2021, 13:52 PM
Vegas Money Moves - Week 13
Fast Forward to Sunday
We’ve got a little something of everything in Week 13 NFL action except a Thursday night game because COVID-19 protocols pushed the Cowboys at Ravens to Tuesday after the Ravens played on Wednesday and despite losing, they earned a back-door cover in a 19-14 loss at Pittsburgh.
The Steelers had their scheduled Sunday game with Washington pushed to Monday.
As of Friday, Circa Sports had one of the only spreads offered in Las Vegas on the Ravens (-7.5, Even) game. The Steelers are steady seven-point home favorites against Washington Football Team at most sportsbooks.
We've also got the 49ers playing a home Monday night game against the Bills at Arizona because Santa Clara County in California won't let San Francisco play at home.
This week has a weird feel to it as if the public is low on cash due to Christmas gift requirements and also getting pounded by the books the last two weeks. Money is tight, and some places have had their cities mandate a shutdown and have no idea when their next check will come.
The "Public" still has a few sides they like as always, but the standout this week is the sharp money showing their hands early with more bets than usual. The weekend and day of event are when most of the wise guys play, but they always take a good number, and this week they didn’t have to wait for the weekend to get it.
Sharps Bet the Board
“Take your pick,” William Hill’s head bookmaker Nick Bogdanovich said of his early plays from respected money. “ They like the Lions (+3 at Chicago), Falcons (+3 -120 vs. Saints), Rams (-3 EV at Arizona), Eagles (+8.5 at Green Bay, Patriots (PK at Chargers), Broncos (+14 at Kansas City), 49ers (PK vs. Bills) and Washington.”
Just one favorite of the bunch with several unique angles such as betting the Bears to keep floundering and lose their sixth straight while also betting the Falcons to derail the Saints eight-game win streak and four-game cover streak.
The Rams have covered their last five games in Arizona, but the bet is more about the Rams bouncing back off a bad loss and Arizona who would be on a four-game losing streak if not for the Hail Murray against the Bills.
Station Casinos and the South Point both saw sharp money take the Falcons and Eagles.
Station’s Jason McCormick said they also had sharp 49ers play while South Point’s Chris Andrews took some on the Colts as well.
The South Point opened the Colts -2.5 on Monday and it lasted only 5 hours before they moved to -3. They’re the only book in the state that uses exclusively flat numbers (-110 both ways, always) so they have to treat anything on or off 3 with extreme care. They got enough cash at -3 (usually 3 to 4 limit plays) that forced them to -3.5 where they’ve been since Wednesday. William Hill books have seen 93% of the cash on the game come on the Colts.
Some recent trends will tell you that the Colts are 7-0-1 ATS in their last eight games at Houston and the Colts are also 4-0 ATS in their last four meetings overall versus Houston. The big bang of the Texans aerial attack, wide receiver Will Fuller, starts his six-game suspension this week. This will be the first of two meetings in 2020.
The Westgate SuperBook opened the Packers -7 on Sunday night and went to -7.5 on Monday prior to the Eagles 23-17 backdoor loss at Seattle. The price adjustment on Tuesday morning was Eagles +9.5 and that’s when buys started to begin. By Tuesday they were down to +8.5 and it’s where they’ve stayed.
However, Wynn sportsbook director Doug Castaneda says their biggest risk so far is on the Packers. Sharps have bet the Eagles too with them, but the Wynn has a different clientele than most books. Lots of whales who are allowed to bet almost whatever they want.
Bettors chasing Raiders
As for the public, they’re all over the Raiders again one week after they were embarrassed 43-6 at Atlanta. The SuperBook got as high as -9 for their road game at the Jets and it remained steady at -8.5 heading into the weekend at most books.
The logic behind backing the Raiders again after they all made them the most one-sided play last week, and they all lost, is being so humiliated and embarrassed last week that they take out their frustrations on one of the lowest rated teams. They are one of the top plays with parlay bettors at Stations, William Hill, and the South Point. William Hill has 88% of its cash taken on the game laying the points with the Raiders.,
Vegas head coach Jon Gruden announced on Friday that running back Josh Jacobs would not be making the trip to play the Jets Sunday. He’s not quite worth a full-point to the number, but he’s more than half-a-point. Backup Devontae Booker has proved to be capable of carrying a full load.
He has 326 yards rushing between 11 games averaging 5.5 YPA with 3 TDs. Jacobs has a team-leading 782 yards rushing and 9 TDs, but averages just 3.8 YPA. The pattern all season has been if Jacobs doesn’t make plays, the Raiders don’t win.
Sunday Night Chalk
Station Casinos have seen their next top public plays be on the Packers and Chiefs laying 14-points. Why not? The Chiefs have covered nine of the last 10 meetings with the Broncos, winning all 10. But the Chiefs have failed to cover their last three while riding a six-game win streak.
Sharps like the Broncos, the public likes the Chiefs. The NFL messed with the integrity of the game last week by forcing the Broncos to play without a quarterback. And it turns out the QBs they penalized didn’t even test positive. The NFL has made concessions all season for teams like the Titans and Ravens dealing with COVID-19, but punished the Broncos unfairly.
Of course, the Broncos couldn’t do anything Sunday and lost 34-3 at home to the Saints. The sharps are seeing a more motivated Broncos squad while the public is seeing the Chiefs score often.
“Nothing huge (risk),” BetMGM VP of trading Jason Scott said on Friday afternoon. “The Raiders, 49ers, and Seahawks are very well supported so far.”
The Seahawks have gone from nine-point home favorites against the Giants to -11 as Giants QB Daniel Jones is 'doubtful' with a hamstring injury. Hello, Colt McCoy. But Seattle has lost five of its last seven games for bettors (4-3 SU, 2-5 ATS) while the NFC East-leading Giants have won three straight.
Super Bowl 55 Prop
The South Point offered a unique Super Bowl prop where they’ll give you four teams as a -160 favorite against 28 teams at +140 to win the Super Bowl. The favorite price gives you the top-2 favorites from each conference -- the Chiefs, Bills, Packers and Saints, against everyone else.
Week 13 - Public vs. Sharp Leans
Here’s a look at the most bets sides from the sharp and public:
Roberts is a former Las Vegas sports book director that has been covering the sports betting industry for the last 16 years.