Betting Recap – Week 14

VegasInsider Staff Sports Betting Expert

16 minute read

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Overall Notes

The largest underdogs to win straight up

• Eagles (+7.5, ML +290) vs. Saints, 24-21
• Broncos (+4, ML +170) at Panthers, 32-27
• Washington (+3, ML +130) at 49ers, 23-15

The largest favorites to cover

• Seahawks (-16.5) vs. Jets, 40-3
• Titans (-7.5) at Jaguars, 31-10
• Buccaneers (-7) vs. Vikings, 26-14

The Biggest Disappointment of the Week

The Houston Texans-Chicago Bears game had a total of 46.5. If you were an 'over' bettor, you might have started celebrating a little bit at halftime. The Bears, who average just 21.7 points per game, scored 23 points in the second quarter, taking a 30-7 lead into the break. Over bettors needed just 10 total points in the second half and they would be holding a winning ticket.

However, in the second half, the Texans offense continued to struggle, and the Bears were able to cobble together a pair of drives for field goals, winning 36-7. Under (46.5) bettors were left shaking their heads after it looks like an 'over' result was all but in the bag. Houston has now hit the under in four of the past five games, and Chicago has hit the under in seven of the previous 10.

The Biggest Disappointment of the Week - Part II

The Kansas City Chiefs-Miami Dolphins battle was a huge disappointment if you were holding a Chiefs (-7) ticket, and it wasn't terrible enjoyable if you were an 'under' (51.5) bettor, either.

 QB Patrick Mahomes and company were leading 14-10 at halftime, and they put their foot on the gas in the third quarter and extended the lead to 30-10, including a 67-yard punt return for score by WR Mecole Hardman, and a safety. Things were looking up if you were laying the touchdown, but that's always a tough cover on the road.

The Dolphins stormed back with a pair of touchdowns, cutting Kansas City's lead to 30-24. QB Tua Tagovailoa had the 1-yard plunge with 4:15 to go, and that clinched the 'over'.

With just 68 seconds remaining in regulation, PK Harrison Butker booted a 46-yard field goal, and the Chiefs were up 33-24. It appeared they might have gotten the cover back. However, the Dolphins moved the ball down the field and elected to kick the 44-yard field goal first, since they needed two scores. That cut the lead back to 33-27, and it was like losing twice for Chiefs side bettors.

Total Recall

The lowest total on the board for the Sunday slate was the New Orleans Saints-Philadelphia Eagles (42.5) matchup. Instead of QB Drew Brees vs. QB Carson Wentz, it was Taysom Hill-Jalen Hurts, as Brees is out with an injury to his ribs, and Wentz was benched last week in favor of the more mobile rookie. 

The game got off to a slow start after a scoreless first quarter, and the Saints didn't get their first points until the third quarter, cutting a 17-0 lead to 17-14. Under bettors were still looking good with 6:22 to play, as the Eagles saw RB Miles Sanders score his second touchdown of the game, making it 24-14. But with 1:24 to go, TE Jared Cook made a tremendous grab in the back of the end zone to make it 24-21. That was the final score, much to the dismay of 'under' bettors.

The highest total on Sunday was the Green Bay Packers-Detroit Lions (56) tilt, and they tried late to make it go 'over'. The Packers scored seven or more points in each their four quarters, including a total of 20 combined points.

If you bet this game early in the week, you might have gotten the line at 55, for a push, or even at 54 briefly, for an over. But since it closed at 56, we'll officially call it an under.

In the first primetime game Thursday night, the New England Patriots-Los Angeles Rams (43.5) game easily went 'under', and it was never really in doubt. The Rams scratched out a 24-3 win over the Pats, cooling them off. In chilly conditions with flurries in western New York, the Buffalo Bills upended the Pittsburgh Steelers (48.5) by a 26-15 count, yet another under for primetime bettors with the Baltimore Ravens-Cleveland Browns (45.5) still pending.

So far this season the under is 26-15 (63.4%) across 41 primetime games. In 2019, the 'under' went 31-17-1 (64.6%) during primetime games.

Looking Ahead to Week 15

Los Angeles Chargers at Las Vegas Raiders (Thursday, 8:20 p.m. ET)

The Chargers slapped the breaks on an 0-6 ATS skid with a win and cover over the Falcons on Sunday, 20-17. Previous to Sunday's game against Atlanta, the Bolts only had a victory over the winless New York Jets since Oct. 25, or Week 7. That includes a 31-26 setbvack against the Raiders at SoFi Stadium in L.A., as Las Vegas cover a one-point number as road favorites as the 'over' (52) connected.

The Raiders were drummed 44-27 at home against the Indianapolis Colts on Sunday, and they fired defensive coordinator Paul Guenther as a result, naming Rod Marinelli as the interim DC. The Raiders have allowed 28 or more points in four straight, and 43 or more points in two of the previous three. Vegas enters Thursday's game on an 0-3 ATS skid after a 4-0 ATS run from Weeks 8 through 11.

Carolina Panthers at Green Bay Packers (Saturday, 8:15 p.m. ET)

The Panthers were toppled 32-27 by the Denver Broncos at home on Sunday, failing to cover as the 'over' (46.5) connected. Carolina has lost nine games this season, but seven have been one-score games. They covered in their most recent road game against an NFC North team, the Minnesota Vikings, but they're 1-2 SU/2-1 ATS in three games vs. the North this season.

For the Packers, they clinched the NFC North Division title with a win in Detroit, but they will likely keep their foot on the gas since there is just one bye at stake in this season's playoffs, so expect them to continue bringing their best. Green Bay has won three in a row since an overtime setback at Indianapolis in Week 11, and they're 5-1 SU/4-2 ATS in six home games at Lambeau Field this season.

Houston Texans at Indianapolis Colts (Sunday, 1 p.m. ET)

The Colts picked up a 26-20 victory on the road against the Texans in Week 13, and now they meet again just two weeks later. If you remember, QB Deshaun Watson had a costly fumble late in the fourth quarter in the red zone, as the Texans were driving for a much-needed, and rare, win. As such, the Colts picked up the win and cover as 3.5-point favorites, moving to 4-1 ATS across the past five, while the 'over' is also 4-1 during the span.

The Texans have managed just 13.5 PPG across the past two games, while allowing 31.0 PPG, going 0-2 SU/ATS during the span as the 'under' has cashed. The under is also 4-1 in their previous five, including that game against Indy.

Pittsburgh Steelers at Cincinnati Bengals (Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET)

The Steelers are on a two-game skid after opening the season 11-0 SU. That includes back-to-back losses to the Washington Football Team and the Bills, and they're 0-3 ATS across the past three. The 'under' is 4-0 in the past four, and 5-0-1 in the previous six, including a push on the total in a 36-10 win over the Bengals in Week 10, easily covering a 6.5-point number.

The Bengals offense is in disarray since losing QB Joe Burrow (knee) to a season-ending injury in Week 11 in Washington. Since the third quarter of that game they have managed just 31 points across the past 14 quarters.

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