Betting Recap – Week 8

VegasInsider Staff Sports Betting Expert

17 minute read

Overall Notes

The largest underdogs to win straight up

• Jets +11.5 (ML +230) vs. Bengals, 34-31
• Packers +6.5 (ML +175) at Cardinals, 24-21 (Thu.)
• Steelers +5 (ML +145) at Browns, 15-10
• Cowboys +4.5 (ML +130) at Vikings, 20-16

The largest favorites to cover

• 49ers (-4.5) at Bears, 33-22
• Broncos (-4) vs. Washington, 17-10
• Seahawks (-4) vs. Jaguars, 31-7
• Eagles (-3) at Lions, 44-6

The Biggest Disappointment of the Week

If you were holding a Miami Dolphins (+15) ticket, the fourth quarter against the Buffalo Bills on Sunday was a complete disaster.

The Bills went ahead 17-3 with 13:23 to go in the fourth quarter, and it looked like things were going to go in the wrong direction. However, QB Tua Tagovailoa popped one in from a yard out, and the Dolphins hit the two-point conversion to slice the lead to 17-11 with 9:39 to go.

At 3:29 to go, PK Tyler Bass booted through a 39-yard field goal to make it 20-11, and with a two-score lead, it appeared the Bills were going to salt away the win, and the Dolphins were going to cover. However, the Bills got the ball back, and with 1:07 left in regulation, Bills QB Josh Allen ran it in from seven yards out, and the point-after attempt made it 26-11. Most shops closed this game at -15, so it was a push.

The line opened at 13.5 at most shops, and stayed at 14.5 or under until late Sunday morning, so many bettors backing Miami took the loss. 

The Biggest Disappointment of the Week - Part II

Total bettors in the Philadelphia Eagles-Detroit Lions (48) who had the UNDER still cannot believe the finish.

It was all Philadelphia all day. It took a 17-0 lead at the half, and UNDER bettors were looking good. Even after 21 points in the third quarter and the Eagles taking a 38-0 lead, the UNDER was still looking to be in good shape.

Eagles PK Jake Elliott booted a 26-yard field goal with 9:53 to go, pushing the Philadelphia lead to 41-0. The Lions finally got on the board, as RB Jermar Jefferson ran it in from eight yards out to cut the lead to 41-6, and a failed two-point conversion still has UNDER bettors on the right side.

For whatever reason, with 1:49 to go, head coach Nick Sirianni elected to kick a field goal with 1:49 to go, making it 44-6. There really was no good reason to not just go for it on fourth down. It's almost like he knew the decision would change the result of the total.

Total Recall

The lowest total on the board in Week 8 was in the San Francisco 49ers-Chicago Bears (40) game. The Bears were already behind the 8-ball a little bit, with head coach Matt Nagy away from the team due to COVID protocols. They were terribly disjointed on offense, however. It was 3-3 after the first quarter, and Chicago led 13-9 at half. After three quarters, the Bears led 16-15. However, the teams combined for 24 total points in the fourth, and just like that we had 55 points on the board, easily posting an OVER.

The second lowest number on the board was in the Cincinnati Bengals-New York Jets (43) and Pittsburgh Steelers-Cleveland Browns (43) games. The Bengals and Jets had a wild one, combining for 65 points in the victory for Gang Green. It was a game which also escorted a lot of people out of survivor pools, if you're into those. And at +450 ML, the Jets were the largest underdog to win outright. The Steelers and Browns were tied 3-3 at half, and the OVER was never threated there.

The highest total on the board for Week 8 is actually the Monday night affair between the New York Giants-Kansas City Chiefs (52) later tonight. For Sunday, the highest total was in the Tennessee Titans-Indianapolis Colts (51) game, and that one didn't disappoint. We had 31 points in the board by halftime, and 45 points going into the final quarter. There actually was a little bit of drama with the OVER, however. It was 24-24 all the way until 1:26 to go. QB Carson Wentz inexplicably was picked off deep in his own end, and DB Elijah Molden for a 2-yard pick-six. The flipped the total to OVER. The Colts fired back with a late score to force overtime, but the Titans came away with a field goal to spoil the day for Colts money line bettors, too.

In the primetime games, the UNDER was 2-0, with the MNF game still pending. That's now 11-9-1 (55.0%) through 21 primetime games. In 2020, the UNDER was 28-19-1 (59.5%) in 48 primetime contests. In 2019, the UNDER went 31-17-1 (64.6%) during primetime games.

Looking Ahead to Week 9

Atlanta Falcons at New Orleans Saints (Sunday, 1 p.m. ET)

The Falcons (3-4) and Saints (5-2) hit the road for the Caesars Superdome, and they'll find a New Orleans team which just pushed past the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, but also lost starting QB Jameis Winston to what looks to be a serious knee injury. QB Trevor Siemian finished up with QB Taysom Hill out nursing an injury. So it's possible Siemian could start, Hill could start and potentially see time under center, if not start, or the Saints could even bring someone in prior to Tuesday's NFL trade deadline.

As it stands, the Saints are 4.5-point favorites with a total of 44 on the board for Sunday's NFC South showdown.

The Falcons lost 19-13 at home to a Panthers team which had lost four in a row, and Atlanta saw its modest two-game win streak snapped. The Falcons are now 1-5 ATS in the past six against NFC South teams, while the Saints are 8-3 ATS in the past 11 divisional games following a win over the Bucs. New Orleans is also 11-4 ATS in the past 15 against teams with a losing record.

The UNDER is 22-9 in Atlanta's past 31 against teams with a winning record, while the UNDER is 6-1 in New Orleans' past seven inside the division, and 7-3 in the past 10 games overall.

In this series, Atlanta is 1-6 ATS in the past seven meetings, and 3-7 ATS in the past 10 trips to New Orleans. The UNDER is 4-0 in the past four meetings in NOLA, and 5-0 in the past five meetings overall.

Cleveland Browns at Cincinnati Bengals (Sunday, 1 p.m. ET)

The Browns (4-4) and Bengals (5-3) are both coming off disappointing losses. Cleveland lost 15-10 to Pittsburgh, while Cincinnati was dropped 34-31 on the road against N.Y. Jets.

The Browns are 10-26-1 ATS in the past 37 games inside the AFC North Division. They're also a dismal 10-29-2 ATS in the past 41 games against teams with a winning record.

The Bengals are 4-0 ATS in the past four following a straight-up loss, while going 4-1 ATS in the past five following a non-cover. Cincinnati is just 2-5 ATS in the past seven as a favorite, and 2-5 ATS in the past seven as a home fave.

In this series, Cincinnati is an impressive 11-2 ATS in the past 13 meetings, and 5-1 ATS in the past six battles at Paul Brown Stadium. The OVER is 5-0 in the previous five meetings, and 6-0-1 in the past seven meetings in Cincinnati.

Arizona Cardinals at San Francisco 49ers (Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET)

In the third and final divisional matchup of Week 9, the Cardinals (7-1) and 49ers (3-4) meet for the second time this season. Oddly enough, Arizona is coming off a loss, while San Francisco picked up a win last time out.

The Cardinals fell 24-21 at home to the Packers for an UNDER result. The 49ers won 33-22 against the Bears to hit the OVER at Soldier Field.

Arizona is 4-0 ATS in the past four road games, while going 5-1 ATS in the past six games overall. San Francisco is 1-6 ATS in the past seven home games, and 1-4 ATS in the past five games overall.

In this series, the Cardinals are 6-1-1 ATS in the past eight meetings, including a 17-10 win in Week 5 as the UNDER hit. Arizona is also 4-0-1 ATsi n the past five trips to Levi's Stadium. The road team is 7-3-1 ATS in the past 11 meetings, too, with the UNDER 7-3 in the past 10.

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