Bills vs. Titans Week 5 Predictions, Odds, Preview

• October 13, 2020
• By Michael Crosson
• VegasInsider.com

It is safe to say no NFL organization has been ravaged more by the coronavirus pandemic than the Tennessee Titans (3-0), after the news broke Sunday morning confirming the team’s 24th COVID-19 case among players and personnel since September 24th, again forcing the shutdown of Tennessee’s practice facilities.

The Titans already had last week’s matchup against the Pittsburgh Steelers postponed to Week 7, so it is critical for strategic and rest related purposes that this game with the Buffalo Bills (4-0) kicks off for Mike Vrabel’s team on Tuesday night.

The future of this matchup between the Bills and Titans appeared foggy throughout the course of the week, but after no positive tests to report from either camp Monday morning, it looks like this game is going to make the cut in Week 5. So, a special Tuesday-Edition of NFL Best Bets is on the way.

Betting Resources

• Week 5 Matchup: AFC vs. AFC
• Expert Picks: Vegas Insiders
• Venue: Nisan Stadium
• Location: Nashville, TN
• Date: Tuesday, Oct. 13, 2020
• Time: 7:00 p.m. ET
• TV: CBS
• Bet: BetMGM | BetRivers | FanDuel | PointsBet | All

The Buffalo Bills have been installed as favorites in all four of their games this season, which includes a pair of road tilts. (AP)

Bills vs. Titans Betting Odds

Line Movements

The Bills and Titans both come into Week 5 boasting perfect records, but the oddsmakers have elected to lean with the team that has been able to adequately practice and prepare all week – setting the line at Buffalo -3.5.

The potential of a shootout is beginning to fill the air in Nashville prior to the Titans’ Tuesday night showdown, as 6 out of the 7 games played by Buffalo and Tennessee so far this year have gone ‘over’ the total. The ‘over-under’ for this Bills-Titans matchup has been set at an accordingly lofty total of 53 points.

Odds Subject to Change

2020 Betting Stats

(Straight Up - SU, Against the Spread - ATS, Over-Under - O/U)

Buffalo

(Rank)

• Overall: 4-0 SU, 3-1 ATS, 3-0-1 O/U
• Road: 2-0 SU, 1-1 ATS, 1-0-1 O/U
• Offense PPG: 30.8 (6)
• Defense PPG: 25.0 (16)
• Offense YPG: Overall 409 (3), Rush 93.5 (28), Pass 316 (2)
• Defense YPG: Overall 381 (20), Rush 101 (8), Pass 280 (29)

Tennessee

• Overall: 3-0 SU, 0-3 ATS, 2-1 O/U
• Home: 1-0 SU, 0-1 ATS, 1-0 O/U
• Offense PPG: 26.7 (14)
• Defense PPG: 24.7 (15)
• Offense YPG: Overall 391 (12), Rush 129 (9), Pass 262 (14)
• Defense YPG: Overall 422 (28), Rush 166 (31), Pass 256 (23)

Head-to-Head History

All-Time Series Record: Titans lead 28-19

• Oct. 6, 2019 - Buffalo 14 at Tennessee 7, Bills +3, Under 39
• Oct. 7, 2018 - Buffalo 13 vs. Tennessee 12, Bills +6, Under 38.5
• Oct. 11, 2015 - Buffalo 14 at Tennessee 13, Pick 'em, Under 42.5

The layouts and methodology of these two teams has changed dramatically since the last time the Bills and Titans met up, but for what it is worth, the most recent meeting between them was a matchup back in Week 5 of last season, when a Marcus Mariota led Tennessee team managed to muster up just seven total points against Buffalo – possibly the Titan’s most painful loss of the season, 14-7.

The biggest upgrade for Buffalo this season has come from the speedy progression of quarterback Josh Allen, who has completely broken out of his shell in 2020, completing over 70% of his passes with a 12-1 TD/INT ratio.

Give credit, where credit is due though. Some of Allen’s success can be attributed to the Bills’ re-vamped receiving core headed by the newly acquired Stefon Diggs in the offseason – who is leading Buffalo’s pass-catching tandem with 26 receptions (8 catches for 20 + yards), 403 receiving yards, and 2 touchdowns.

Tennessee has the same ground-and-pound identity it possessed last time out against Sean McDermott’s Bills, they are just simply more capable of slinging the ball around the yard when needed with Ryan Tannehill under center this go-around.

Just because the Titans can throw the ball now, does not mean that is the direction Coach Vrabel is looking to head with his offense. He wants to pound the ball with Derrick Henry (82 carries, 319 rush yards, 3 games). He wants his team focused on dominating time of possession and winning the turnover battle. Let’s see if Tennessee can be the first team to stop the Josh Allen-Train.

Over vs. Under
Handicapping the Total

The ‘over’ is 4-0 in Buffalo’s first four matchups to open the 2020 season, as Bills’ contests have contained an average of 55.75 total points during their young quarterback’s explosive start to the year.

Buffalo scored a mere 19.6 points per game last season, ranking 19th in the NFL. In 2020, the Bills are scoring an average of 30.8 points per game – jumping all the way up to 5th in the league in scoring.

The ‘over-under’ for this contest sits at 53, and I think that bar has been set just a little too low. I envision the Bills leading for the majority of this game, and Tennessee having to play catch-up. Buffalo’s secondary has already been questionable so far this year, and now with White being banged up, I think Tannehill will find success playing catch-up.

It is not personally my “best bet” of the night, but I think ‘over 53’ is a good bet for this game. We should see fireworks between the Bills and Texans on Tuesday night.

Bills vs. Titans
Handicapping the Side

The Titans have had 13 players test positive for COVID-19 since September 24th, causing the team’s practice facilities to shut down for the whole month of October. Tennessee got back to practice on Saturday morning, but just three days of on-field practice to prepare for any team is a tough task, let alone take down an undefeated Bills squad.

Tennessee is undeniably well rested, but I believe if any team had to choose between a week of practice versus a week of rest, they would take the week of practice every time.

If the Titans and Bills were both at full strength, and had a full week of practice, I may be hesitant to side with Buffalo at anything more than a field goal spread. But there are just too many unknowns surrounding Tennessee heading into this game. I trust that with the extra rest and preparation time, the Bills will outlast the Titans in this one.

The Bills beat the Titans by a touchdown last time they met up, and Coach McDermott’s team is here to prove that they are even better than they were last year.

I think Buffalo gets Tennessee by at least a touchdown in this one. Depending on your book, you might be able to bet on an alternate spread of Bills -6.5 at +125 odds or higher.

Key Injuries

Buffalo

• G Brian Winters: Knee - Questionable
• LB Del'Shawn Phillips: Quad - Questionable
• CB Tre'Davious White: Back - Questionable
• WR Andre Roberts: Ankle - Questionable
• OT Cody Ford: Groin - Questionable
• LB Matt Milano: Pec - Out
• RB Zack Moss: Toe - Questionable
• WR John Brown: Knee - Questionable

Tennessee

• OT Taylor Lewan: Shoulder - Questionable
• WR A.J. Brown: Knee - Questionable

Do not be fooled by the emptiness of the Titan’s injury report as players who test positive for COVID do not get placed on the list.

A.J. Brown is listed as questionable for Tuesday’s contest, but I expect him to play considering it was reported there was a chance he might suit up against the Steelers last week had the game not been postponed – and Tennessee will likely be without receivers Corey Davis and Adam Humphries due to coronavirus, so they need him bad on Tuesday night.

The other injury I have highlighted on this report is Bill’s corner, Tre’Davious White, listed as questionable with a back injury. The Titans receiving core has been annihilated by illness and injury so far this season, but like I mentioned earlier, Tennessee will probably get its top-wideout in Brown back for Tuesday’s tilt, which could be trouble for the Buffalo defense if its top-defensive back does not play.

Bills vs. Titans - Predictions

This game may be a “battle of the unbeatens,” but I look at this matchup as the Bills’ second big test. Buffalo beat the Jets and Dolphins in the first two weeks of the season, which didn’t turn very many heads, understandably. But Allen and company took down the Raiders last week, who proved this week how solid of a team they are by knocking off the Chiefs on Sunday.

Now, the Bills are going to head into Nashville and take on a team that was just one win away from playing in Super Bowl LIV. I think Josh Allen steps up to the occasion and delivers a big 5-0 to Bills Mafia.

Give me Buffalo -3.5 in what should be an exciting Tuesday Night Football Showdown.

• Score Prediction: Bills 31 Titans 24
• Best Bet: Buffalo - 3.5