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Chiefs vs. Raiders Week 11 Predictions, Odds, Preview

 

  • November 22, 2020
  • By Matt Blunt
  • VegasInsider.com

Chiefs vs. Raiders - Predictions

  • Score Prediction: Chiefs 37 Raiders 20
  • Best Bet: Kansas City -8

The Sunday Night Football game this week has a lot of people excited for its prospects, as it's an AFC West rematch between the Chiefs and Raiders, with Kansas City looking to avenge there only loss of the year.

The 42-30 home loss for the Chiefs came after consecutive MNF games (virus related), and while you can never overlook a division rival, the fact that this game came after convincing wins against Baltimore (prospective KC rival in the big picture) and the Patriots (former/current KC rival based on the past few years), that spot was a rough one for the Chiefs looking back at it.

And when you install them as -11 point home favorites as they were, chances are the players got a little complacent – they were undefeated, off two big wins, expected to win easily etc.

That first meeting was tied entering the 4th quarter though, but it was three straight scores (2 TD and 1 FG) by Las Vegas in that final 15 minutes that shifted the game in their favor, and KC just ran out of time for another one of their furious comebacks we've gotten used to seeing from them the past 12+ months.

With that result already behind us, you know that “revenge” will come up a lot this week for the Chiefs and the idea of backing them, and you can't discount that. There is no need to base any play solely on the revenge narrative though, as chances are you'll be missing other key bits of information along the way in being so stuck on the revenge idea.

Betting Resources


S Tyrann Mathieu and the Chiefs have been perfect on the road this season, going 4-0 as visitors. (AP)

Chiefs-Raiders Betting Odds

Line Movements

  • Spread: Chiefs -7
  • Money-Line: Kansas City -310, Las Vegas +255
  • Total: 56.5
  • Odds Subject to Change

    2020 Betting Stats

    (Straight Up - SU, Against the Spread - ATS, Over-Under - O/U)

    Kansas City

    • Overall: 8-1 SU, 6-3 ATS, 4-5 O/U
    • Road: 4-0 SU, 3-1 ATS, 1-3 O/U
    • Offense PPG: 31.8 (Rank 2)
    • Defense PPG: 20.3 (Rank 27)
    • Offense YPG: 409.0 (Rank 2)
    • Defense YPG: 354.1 (Rank 14)

    Las Vegas

    • Overall: 6-3 SU, 6-3 ATS, 7-2 O/U
    • Home: 2-2 SU, 2-2 ATS, 3-1 O/U
    • Offense PPG: 28.3 (Rank 8)
    • Defense PPG: 26.8 (Rank 14)
    • Offense YPG: 370 (Rank 13)
    • Defense YPG: 377.6 (Rank 21)

    Over vs. Under
    Handicapping the Total

    As someone who does prefer to lean on division rematch games to see their results on the side and total flipped from the first meeting, siding with the 'revenge' angle on playing Kansas City, and backing the 'under' would be the two plays that qualify in that thinking here. Thoughts on the side are coming, but in terms of this total, going 'under' would be completely contrarian, possibly too much for myself even.

    All the numbers on both sides point to this being a game filled with points again, especially now that nearly the entire Raiders starting defense has gone without substantial practice time this week. KC has scored 33+ points in each of their last three contests overall, and have only finished with sub-30 point totals in three of their nine games this season.

    Mahomes and company had no problem putting up points – even in a below average game for the Chiefs – against the Raiders in the first meeting, and I'm not going to let the fact that Las Vegas allowed 6 points to Cleveland in tornado-like conditions, and the 12 points allowed to Denver last week to sway the thought of KC's ability to move the ball.


    T&C's Apply, 21+, Only in CO

    The Chiefs will score here, and while you know the oddsmakers are going to be looking for an 'under' to cash, it's just not something I can comfortably pull the trigger on.

    However, I'm not exactly too keen on playing an 'over' in a prime time game you know the whole betting world will be on, especially after missing the best of the number much earlier in the week when it opened in the 55.5 range.

    All of those factors are things I believe are detrimental to one's bankroll long term if they get completely ignored, as the old betting idea of “when something looks too good/easy to be true, it usually is” percolating through my head.

    This is still the third straight division game for the Raiders, and we just saw the Minnesota Vikings in that same role last Monday night against Chicago. That 19-13 Vikings win never came close to threatening the 'over' at all.

    The SNF crew haven't seen an 'over' connect since the Week 7 game between Seattle and Arizona (nearly a month), and that's been the only 'over' to connect in this high profile SNF time slot since the start of Week 4.

    A return match between the Chiefs and Raiders certainly has all the right ingredients there to snap that long wrong of 'unders' on SNF, but this is a total I'll be staying on the sidelines with ultimately. I do believe that teasing the total - both ways – could end up being the best way to play this game, as landing right around this number is highly possible.

    Head-to-Head History

    • Oct. 11, 2019 - Las Vegas 40 vs. Kansas City 32, Raiders +10.5, Over 54.5
    • Dec. 1, 2019 - Kansas City 40 vs. Las Vegas 9, Chiefs -11, Under 49.5
    • Sept. 15, 2019 - Kansas City 28 vs. Las Vegas 10, Chiefs -6.5, Under 53
    • Dec. 30, 2018 - Kansas City 35 vs. Las Vegas 3, Chiefs -14, Under 53.5
    • Dec. 2, 2018 - Kansas City 40 vs. Las Vegas 33, Raiders +13.5, Over 53.5

    Chiefs vs. Raiders
    Handicapping the Side

    The Raiders got some early week love when the original opener of KC -7 got bet down to -6.5, but then the virus news hit the Raiders mid-week and it forced a shift in the markets. The number came off the board for awhile, and has since settled on it's current range, a point higher than that full TD opener at the beginning of the week.

    That lack of practice time is the big loss here regardless of what names on that Raiders defense are out there on the field, but having already played this opponent once this year does mitigate at least some of that negative aspect.

    Yet, the Kansas City Chiefs are not just your typical ho-hum division rival that finishes .500 every year, they are the defending Super Bowl champs with a QB that's established himself as arguably the best in the game right now.

    Not being together for walkthroughs and game plan implementation is going to make this week a severe challenge for this Raiders defense – another reason I'm avoiding the total.

    From KC's perspective, I'm sure there will be some mention of a possible lookahead to a Super Bowl preview with the Chiefs visiting old pal Tom Brady down in Tampa Bay next week, but I'm not buying any of that this week.

    Usually I'm a guy all for potential lookaheads, but to consider it for a non-conference game and hindering said team in a division game – against their only competition in the division like the Raiders are for KC – doesn't make a whole lot of sense.

    The revenge narrative is always going to be popular here, and knowing that, I've still got very little issue in siding with the Chiefs for that reason, among many. I believe they are the far better team here and simply got caught in a lackluster spot in that first meeting.

    A KC win here would put them three games clear of the Raiders for the division crown, and when you boil down the six wins Las Vegas has gotten this year, they really have been the beneficiary of some great situational spots in some of them.

    I've already argued that they caught KC in a bad spot off two straight MNF games, but they also beat New Orleans – another win Raiders fans will point to for legitimacy – in the home opener for Vegas. Far from a typical home opener I know, but those are always good situations for the home side.

    The other four wins Vegas has this year have come against Carolina, Denver, the Chargers (where they nearly coughed it up to LAC), and Cleveland in that tornado-like game. That list is far from a who's who in terms of crafting a strong legitimacy case for the Raiders this year.

    You can only beat who's in front of you though, and you can't take everything away from those wins over New Orleans and KC, but with how the week has gone for Las Vegas, I've got a feeling they are walking into a disaster on SNF.

    I know that I outlined this scenario earlier in the week that suggests going against KC here, but with the way the Raiders week has gone since then, KC looks like the better play with each passing day.

    KC is still on a 14-3-1 ATS run dating back almost exactly a full calendar year (Nov 18th game vs LAC in Week 11 last year), and they've not lost two straight against the spread in that span. They keep that run going this week.

    Key Injuries

    Kansas City Chiefs

    • OT Mike Remmers: Ribs
    • CB Bopete Keyes: Illness
    • OT Martinas Rankin: COVID-19
    • DE Taco Charlton: Ankle - Out
    • OT Mitchell Schwartz: Back - Out
    • WR Sammy Watkins: Hamstring - Out
    • S L'Jarius Sneed: Collarbone - Probable
    • DE Alex Okafor: Hamstring - Probable
    • WR Mecole Hardman: COVID-19 - Probable
    • CB Rashad Fenton: Ankle - Probable
    • CB Antonio Hamilton: Hamstring - Probable
    • RB Clyde Edwards-Helaire: Illness - Probable
    • OT Eric Fisher: Quarantine - Probable

    Las Vegas Raiders

    • QB Derek Carr: Undisclosed - Probable
    • DT Maurice Hurst Jr.: Ankle - Questionable
    • RB Jalen Richard: Chest - Chest - Doubtful
    • DE Clelin Ferrell: COVID-19 - Doubtful
    • OT Trent Brown: COVID-19 - Out
    • LB Cory Littleton: COVID-19 - Probable
    • DE Arden Key: COVID-19 - Probable
    • CB Isaiah Johnson: COVID-19 - Probable
    • DT Johnathan Hankins: COVID-19 - Probable
    • DT Maliek Collins: COVID-19 - Probable
    • S Johnathan Abram: COVID-19 - Probable
    • T Kolton Miller: Ankle - Probable
    • S Lamarcus Joyner: COVID-19 - Probable

    2020 Sunday Night Football (SNF) Betting Results

    Betting Results

    Straight Up (SU), Against the Spread (ATS)

    • Home-Away: 7-3 SU, 6-4 ATS
    • Favorites-Underdogs: 3-7 SU, 2-8 ATS
    • Over-Under: 3-7
    2020 Sunday Night Football Betting Results
    Week Matchup Line/Total Score ATS-Total
    1 Dallas at L.A. Rams Pick 'em, 51 20-17 Underdog-Under
    2 New England at Seattle Seahawks -4.5, 45 35-30 Favorite-Over
    3 Green Bay at New Orleans Saints -3, 52 37-30 Underdog-Over
    4 Philadelphia at San Francisco 49ers -8, 45.5 25-20 Underdog-Under
    5 Minnesota at Seattle Seahawks -5.5, 54 27-26 Underdog-Under
    6 L.A. Rams at San Francisco 49ers +2.5, 51.5 24-16 Underdog-Under
    7 Seattle at Arizona Seahawks -3.5, 55.5 37-34 (OT) Underdog-Over
    8 Dallas at Philadelphia Eagles -10, 43.5 23-9 Favorite-Under
    9 New Orleans at Tampa Bay Buccaneers -3.5, 51.5 38-3 Underdog-Under
    10 Baltimore at New England Patriots +7, 44 23-17 Underdog-Under
    11 Kansas City at Las Vegas - - -
    12 Chicago at Green Bay - - -
    13 Denver at Kansas City - - -
    14 Pittsburgh at Buffalo - - -
    15 San Francisco at Dallas - - -
    16 Tennessee at Green Bay - - -
    17 TBA vs. TBA - - -

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