Last Updated Aug 30, 2021, 9:48 AM
Bills vs. 49ers Week 13 Predictions, Odds, Preview
- December 7, 2020
- By Matt Blunt
Bills vs. 49ers - Predictions
- Score Prediction: San Francisco 24 Buffalo 21
- Best Bet: 49ers PK
We get another Monday Night doubleheader this week thanks to all the scheduling changes this league has had recently, but the game that was always slated to be in this spot is the non-conference tilt between the Bills and 49ers.
The two teams come into this game with very different goals, as San Francisco is trying to scratch and claw it's way back to a playoff spot to at least have a shot at defending their NFC title, while Buffalo's trying to fend off the Dolphins in the AFC East race.
Miami is expected to take care of their business rather easily on Sunday in hosting the Bengals, so theoretically, Buffalo could come into this MNF affair tied atop the division. That provides a whole different type of sweat to all those bettors that were certain Buffalo would win the AFC East this year because the Patriots wouldn't.
The latter half of that hypothesis will likely come true, but Buffalo still has their hands full with Miami trying to hunt them down with both teams having very tough home games on deck next week (Buffalo hosts Pittsburgh, Miami hosts KC) with a Week 17 showdown between the two AFC East rivals looking like it may decide the division.
That means we are likely to see Josh Allen and his Buffalo Bills teammates quite frequently under the prime time lights this month. Can we start that run with a winner in this MNF game against a Niners team with just as much to fight for right now.
- Week 13 Matchup: AFC vs. NFC
- Expert Picks: Vegas Insiders
- Venue: State Farm Stadium
- Location: Glendale, Arizona
- Date: Monday, Dec. 7, 2020
- Time: 8:15 p.m. ET
- TV: ESPN
- Bet: BetMGM | BetRivers | FanDuel | PointsBet | All | California Sports Betting
Bills-49ers Betting Odds
Odds Subject to Change
2020 Betting Stats
(Straight Up - SU, Against the Spread - ATS, Over-Under - O/U)
- Overall: 8-3 SU, 6-5 ATS, 7-3-1 O/U
- Road: 3-2 SU, 2-3 ATS, 3-1-1 O/U
- Offense PPG: 27.2 (Rank 10)
- Defense PPG: 25.6 (Rank 18)
- Offense YPG: 372.5 (Rank 11)
- Defense YPG: 373.1 (Rank 21)
- Overall: 5-6 SU, 5-6 ATS, 5-6 O/U
- Home: 1-4 SU, 1-4 ATS, 2-3 O/U
- Offense PPG: 23.7 (Rank 20)
- Defense PPG: 23.1 (Rank 11)
- Offense YPG: 362.9 (Rank 14)
- Defense YPG: 315.2 (Rank 6)
Over vs. Under
Handicapping the Total
With all the injuries the 49ers have dealt with this season, clawing their way back into a playoff spot in the NFC would be quite the huge accomplishment. QB Jimmy Garoppolo and TE George Kittle have both been out since Week 8 for the 49ers, and head coach Kyle Shanahan was hopefully, but non-committal, this week in talking about hopefully getting both of those guys back for the final few weeks of the year.
If that's indeed on the table, San Francisco has got to do their best to make those games mean something for this year, and that means taking care of business each and every week until then. Those two players shouldn't be considered saviours of the organization by any means, but Kittle especially is a huge upgrade at his position.
I bring all this up because we've already seen some early support for the 49ers this week, as an opening number of +2.5 on San Fran has been bet down to it's current standing. Clearly the 49ers side is something bettors have little issue getting behind and if a SF win is on the horizon here, 49ers wins this year have been correlated with San Francisco playing quite well defensively.
San Fran is 2-3 O/U in their five victories this year, but the two 'overs' came in Weeks 2 and 3 of the season during their two-week stay in New York to beat up on the Jets and Giants. Those games barely got 'over' the number with San Francisco scoring 31 and 36 points themselves in those games.
Which brings me to the point totals of those foes the 49ers have vanquished this year. They held the Jets to 13, the Giants to 9, the Rams to 16 and 20 (swept the season series), and the Patriots to 6 points.
That five-game average of 12.8 points allowed in wins is spectacular for the 49ers, and you've got to figure that with far fewer weapons available to them relative to the Bills, any 49ers win will have some correlation to another strong defensive game by them.
Defense is something the Bills have improved on recently, at least in terms of getting off the field on 3rd down. Through their past three games, Buffalo's defense ranks 4th in opponent third down conversion percentage (26.83%), trailing just the Steelers, Giants (oddly enough) and Saints in that category.
For Buffalo to put up those numbers when their three opponents in that stretch were Seattle, Arizona, and the Chargers, it's an improvement that can't be overlooked in the slightest.
The 49ers are just a few spots behind Buffalo in that regard as well, sitting 8th in opponent 3rd down conversion percentage over their last three games too (32.43%).
Those defensive numbers for Buffalo tend to get lost in the fact that they've given up Hail Mary completions in each of their last two games overall, costing them a win (and subsequent breathing room in the AFC East) in the process. Add in the fact that Seattle put up 34 on the Bills as well, and the Chargers deserving more than the 17 points they scored a week ago, and the reputation of Buffalo being an 'over' team this season is going to be hard to shake for some.
Buffalo's 7-0-1 O/U run off a win, and 7-3-1 O/U record this year feeds into those 'over' leans already, but in the previous (2) times the Bills have found themselves in the stand alone game spotlight (Tuesday vs Tennessee in Week 5, and Monday in Week 6 vs KC) they put up 16 and 17 points respectively.
A lot more variables went into those two games, not the least of which being they were up against two very good teams there, but this Bills team that most of the market has been waiting on (and anointing) to finally take that next step, always seem to put their worst foot forward when they reach the foot of that step.
Put it all together and the only way to look at this total would be to go low here. Buffalo's 'over' record is in part why this number appears to be a shade to high in my view, as Buffalo's woeful defense from earlier in the year still holds a lot of weight in any narrative surrounding a Bills game.
The fact that Buffalo's recent 3rd down improvement on defense gets lost in the higher scores and inability to defense Hail Mary's is another factor in having this total where it is, but it's also not Russell Wilson, Kyler Murray, or Justin Herbert they are going up against. It's Nick Mullens. Enough said.
Under or pass.
- Oct. 16, 2016 - Buffalo 45 vs. San Francisco 16, Bills -7.5, Over 44
- Oct. 7, 2012 - San Francisco 45 vs. Buffalo 3, 49ers -10, Over 45.5
- Nov. 30, 2008 - San Francisco 10 at Buffalo 3, 49ers +6.5, Under 43
Bills vs. 49ers
Handicapping the Side
Can't ignore this strong move the 49ers way and admittedly it does contribute to the 'under' thinking as well on the total.
But when you have a team like Buffalo who you know is going to be the default pick for many on Monday night simply based on team records and having their starting QB, the fact that an opening number of -2.5 on Buffalo never came close to going up to -3 with (likely) majority support is rather telling.
Oddsmakers clearly never wanted to hang a +3 on San Fran up there fearing a wave of 49ers money and it came anyways without even reaching that key number.
It's alright to like the 49ers side using that line move as support, but tough to confidently back them now at a far worse price, with no real opportunity to buy a half-point to artificially get a +3 ticket on San Francisco in hand. Remember, it's the 49ers who are the more desperate team in needing every win they could get right now, and there is always the possibility of Buffalo peaking ahead to that showdown with the undefeated Steelers next week.
Makes this side an easy one to pass on all the way around now, instead looking to go the live betting route in taking points with probably either side if the game flow feels right to do so. It's been three straight ATS wins for Buffalo these past three weeks – but they've also been outgained in total yards in three of their last four, the lone outlier being the win over Seattle where Buffalo had one more total yard.
If they get outgained by this mash group of 49ers on offense, chances are that early San Francisco money is going to be smiling come Tuesday morning. Let's not forget that Buffalo is also on a 1-4 ATS run against a team with a losing record, and 0-3-1 ATS in their last four appearances on MNF too.
- LB Matt Milano: Pectoral - Questionable
- TE Tyler Kroft: Quarantine - Questionable
- T Cody Ford: Ankle - Out
- WR John Brown: Ankle - Out
- RB Tevin Coleman: Knee - Probable
- WR Deebo Samuel: Hamstring - Probable
- LB Demetrius Flannigan-Fowles: Hamstring - Questionable
- OL Tom Compton: Concussion - Questionable
- CB Jamar Taylor: Knee - Out
- CB K'Waun Williams: Suspension - Out
2020 Monday Night Football (MNF) Betting Results
Straight Up (SU), Against the Spread (ATS)
- Home-Away: 4-8 SU, 7-5 ATS
- Favorites-Underdogs: 8-4 SU, 5-7 ATS
- Over-Under: 5-7
|2020 Monday Night Football Betting Results|
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