Last Updated Sep 09, 2021, 2:00 PM

Steelers vs. Bills Predictions, Odds, Picks

Sept. 12, 2021
Jonathan Willis
VI Betting Expert

Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Buffalo Bills Predictions

Score Prediction - Bills 24 Steelers 20

The Buffalo Bills have been one of the trendiest teams this offseason. After making it to the AFC Championship Game last year, the Bills have been seen as the most likely team to knock off the Kansas City Chiefs in the conference. However, a lot of that optimism rests on the shoulders of Josh Allen, who is coming off a career year in 2020.

Allen was a middling quarterback through his first two seasons in the NFL. He posted a QBR below 50 in 2018 and 2019 before his breakout 2020 campaign. Elite receiver Stefon Diggs certainly helped Allen post those numbers, and he has other solid wide outs in Emmanuel Sanders, Cole Beasley, and Gabriel Davis. Still, it’s a bit head-scratching to see so many analysts putting Allen among the NFL’s elite at the position after just one good season.

Pittsburgh has a defense that can slow down this offense. Cam Heyward, T.J. Watt, and Minkah Fitzpatrick are all elite players, and the addition of Joe Schobert gives the Steelers a sure tackler alongside the young and talented Devin Bush. Melvin Ingram III will be used as a situational pass rusher that can frustrate Allen, but these cornerbacks are susceptible to deep balls.

The big question surrounding the Steelers revolves around how much gas Ben Roethlisberger has left in the tank. Roethlisberger has long been one of the league’s better quarterbacks, but the 39-year-old only played two games in 2019 due to injury and averaged just 6.3 YPA last year. Pittsburgh has some good targets in Chase Claypool and JuJu Smith-Schuster, but Roethlisberger is in the down slope of his career.

Mike Tomlin will want to run the ball to help out Big Ben, so rookie Najee Harris is likely to see a heavy workload in his NFL debut. The Bills have two beefy defensive tackles in Ed Oliver and Star Lotulelei, but the ends are undersized and can be exploited.

Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Buffalo Bills Best Bets

  • Pittsburgh +6.5

Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Buffalo Bills Game Odds

  • Pittsburgh +225
  • Buffalo -275
  • Pittsburgh (+6.5) -110
  • Buffalo (-6.5) -110
  • Over 48.5 -110
  • Under 48.5 -110

Odds Provided by BetMGM - Subject to Change

Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Buffalo Bills Betting Resources

  • Venue: Highmark Stadium
  • Location: Buffalo, New York
  • TV-Time: CBS - 1:00 p.m. ET

Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Buffalo Bills Betting Analysis

This game should go under the total as Pittsburgh will likely have a run-heavy gameplan, and Allen won’t have the same success he did in 2020. The Steelers will stay within striking distance and won’t let the Bills put them away, but they won’t be able to pull off the upset in front of a raucous crowd.

Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Buffalo Bills Betting Trends

  • Pittsburgh has gone OVER the point total in four straight games.
  • Buffalo has won seven straight home opening games.
  • The point total has gone UNDER in four of the last five games between both teams.
  • Pittsburgh has covered the spread in nine of its last 10 games when playing during the daytime on a Sunday.

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