Last Updated Nov 05, 2021, 11:00 PM

Atlanta Falcons vs. New Orleans Saints Predictions, Odds, Picks

Nov. 7, 2021
Jonathan Willis
VI Betting Expert

NFC South rivals hit the gridiron on Sunday afternoon with the New Orleans Saints hosting the Atlanta Falcons. Kick off is scheduled for 1:00 p.m. ET and will air on FOX from Caesars Superdome in New Orleans, Louisiana.

Score Prediction

Saints 20, Falcons 16

Best Bets


Falcons +6

Atlanta Falcons vs. New Orleans Saints Predictions

The New Orleans Saints lost starting quarterback Jameis Winston for the season last week. Winston suffered a torn ACL in a win over his former team, as Trevor Siemian helped the Saints hold on for the victory. Siemian is expected to be the starting quarterback against the Atlanta Falcons on Sunday although Taysom Hill is supposed to play after being placed in the concussion protocol almost a month ago.

This should be a low scoring game. New Orleans has a very good defense, but there are plenty of reasons to worry about the Saints’ offense. Siemian had played in just one game since 2017 before last week, and he was largely lackluster in two years as a starter with the Denver Broncos.

Atlanta Falcons vs. New Orleans Saints Betting Odds

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Atlanta Falcons vs. New Orleans Saints Betting Resources

  • Matchup: NFC South
  • Date: Sunday, November 7, 2021
  • Venue: Caesars Superdome
  • Location: New Orleans, Louisiana
  • TV-Time: FOX - 1:00 p.m. ET

Atlanta Falcons Betting Analysis

Straight Up - SU, Against the Spread - ATS, Over-Under (O/U)

  • SU: 3-4
  • ATS: 3-4
  • O/U: 4-3
  • ATS - Home: 1-3
  • ATS - Away: 2-1

Calvin Ridley has played just one game over the last month, and he might be away from the team for a prolonged period. Ridley took to social media to say that he was stepping away from the Falcons for at least a couple more weeks for his mental health, depriving Atlanta of its top receiver against the Saints.

The Falcons only have two real offensive weapons. Tight end Kyle Pitts is the team’s leading receiver with 33 receptions for 484 yards and a touchdown, and Cordarrelle Patterson is the leading rusher and the second-leading receiver. That has led to Matt Ryan posting his worst numbers in years, as he is missing Julio Jones and Ridley.

Atlanta ranks 26th in scoring defense, but the Falcons have not been that bad in terms of total defense. They are surrendering just 5.6 yards per play, and they have a couple playmakers on the defensive line. They struggle at getting to the quarterback though, ranking 30th in sack rate.

New Orleans Saints Betting Analysis

Straight Up - SU, Against the Spread - ATS, Over-Under (O/U)

  • SU: 5-2
  • ATS: 4-3
  • O/U: 3-4
  • ATS - Home: 2-1
  • ATS - Away: 2-2

Alvin Kamara hasn’t been an effective runner this season. Kamara averaged at least 4.6 YPC in each of his first four years with New Orleans, but he is averaging just 3.6 YPC in 2021. His receiving numbers have taken a dip too, as he has just 28 receptions for 256 yards and four touchdowns.

The Saints dealt for Mark Ingram II last week, but Ingram had just six carries for 27 yards in his first game back in the Big Easy. They have manufactured a ground game with plenty of runs for Winston and Hill, but Siemian isn’t the same type of mobile threat.

That underscores a bigger problem with the Saints. This passing game has not been nearly as proficient without the retired Drew Brees. New Orleans is averaging just 180.9 YPG through the air, leading to this team ranking 29th in total offense. Siemian averaged just 5.5 YPA in the win over Tampa Bay last week, so this offense probably won’t improve much.

New Orleans is now winning games with its defense. The Saints rank fourth in scoring defense and 10th in total defense. Their front seven has been one of the best in the NFL, allowing just 3.5 YPC, and they have been a ball hawking secondary. Marshon Lattimore is shining once again, but there hasn’t been a solid cornerback on the other side of him.

Inside the Stats - Atlanta Falcons

  • Record: 3-4
  • Division Standing: 4th - NFC South
  • Points Scored: 149
  • Points Allowed: 195
  • PS/G: 21.1 (21st)
  • PA/G: 27.9 (26th)

Inside the Stats - New Orleans Saints

  • Record: 5-2
  • Division Standing: 2nd - NFC South
  • Points Scored: 176
  • Points Allowed: 128
  • PS/G: 25.1 (14th)
  • PA/G: 18.3 (4th)

Key Players to Watch

  • ATL: Matt Ryan - QB (186/271, 1,814 yards, 13 TD, 6 INT)
  • ATL: Kyle Pitts - TE (33 catches, 484 yards, TD)
  • NOR: Alvin Kamara - RB (133 carries, 480 yards, 6 Total TDs)
  • NOR: Trevor Siemian - QB (16/29, 159 yards, TD)

Atlanta Falcons vs. New Orleans Saints Betting Conclusion

The under is the best bet in this game. New Orleans has had a hard time moving the ball this season, while the Saints’ defense has played great. They will do enough to win the game and move to 6-2, but it’s going to be difficult for New Orleans to cover the number.

Atlanta Falcons vs. New Orleans Saints Betting Trends

  • The point total has gone UNDER in seven of the last eight meetings.
  • New Orleans has won six of its last seven games when facing Atlanta.
  • New Orleans has seen the underdog cover the spread in seven of its last eight games.
  • New Orleans has covered the spread in three straight games when facing Atlanta.

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