Last Updated Nov 05, 2021, 5:00 PM
Green Bay Packers vs. Kansas City Chiefs Predictions, Odds, Picks
VI Betting Expert
The Green Bay Packers (7-1) and the Kansas City Chiefs (4-4) square off in an interesting AFC-NFC game at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium. Kickoff is scheduled for 4:25 p.m. ET and the game can be viewed on FOX.
Packers 25, Chiefs 22
Packers +7 (-110)
Green Bay Packers vs. Kansas City Chiefs Predictions
The big news for this game is obviously the health of Packers QB Aaron Rodgers. Early in the week, Rodgers reportedly tested positive for COVID-19, and it turns out he is among a handful of unvaccinated players. As such, he must be sidelined for at least 10 days. This means QB Jordan Love, drafted to be the successor to Rodgers at some point, will make his first NFL start.
The line changed dramatically upon the news of the Rodgers absence, originally opening with the Packers catching three. It quickly moved to a pick ‘em, and in some instances with Green Bay even as a slight favorite. After the Rodgers news, however, the Packers have been catching anywhere from a flat seven to seven and a hook, depending on the shop.
I think it’s a bit of an overreaction. We saw just last Sunday that a backup quarterback, who has had little or no action in recent times, can come right in and do the job. Dallas Cowboys QB Cooper Rush threw for over 300 yards and two touchdowns at Minnesota in a win Sunday night in Week 8. Love, like Rush, has been in the team’s system, and he actually might be even more prepared than Rush. He has had a full week to receive first-team reps, and he will be facing a Chiefs pass defense which has been downright brutal at times this season.
Green Bay Packers vs. Kansas City Chiefs Betting Odds
Green Bay Packers vs. Kansas City Chiefs Betting Resources
- Matchup: NFC North vs. AFC West
- Date: Sunday, November 7, 2021
- Venue: GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
- Location: Kansas City, Missouri
- TV-Time: FOX - 4:25 p.m. ET
Green Bay Packers Betting Analysis
Straight Up - SU, Against the Spread - ATS, Over-Under (O/U)
- SU: 7-1
- ATS: 7-1
- O/U: 2-6
- ATS - Home: 3-0
- ATS - Away: 4-1
The Packers enter on a seven-game win and cover streak, including a 24-21 win as 6.5-point underdogs over the previously unbeaten Arizona Cardinals last Thursday night. But all trends are essentially meaningless with Love in, and Rodgers out. Well, all except for maybe one.
The Packers come in on a 5-0 UNDER run, allowing 21, 10, 14, 22 and 17 across the past five games. The defense has been phenomenal, and might not be talked about enough when discussing the success of the Packers. Usually it’s Rodgers and the offense getting the glory. Even with Rodgers, this offense has produced 24, 24, 24, 25 and 27 across the past five games.
While the UNDER trend is an interesting one, and some figure Love could struggle in his first NFL start, those previous five games were against the Pittsburgh Steelers, Cincinnati Bengals, Chicago Bears, Washington Football Team and Arizona Cardinals. Each of those teams rank in the top half of the NFL in terms of defense. The Chiefs, not so much, so OVER might be a value play here, especially with movement way down from as high as 55.5 to 48.
Kansas City Chiefs Betting Analysis
Straight Up - SU, Against the Spread - ATS, Over-Under (O/U)
- SU: 4-4
- ATS: 2-6
- O/U: 4-4
- ATS - Home: 0-4
- ATS - Away: 2-2
The Chiefs didn’t lost their second game until Week 17 last season, and that was because they rested key players with the top seed in the AFC sewn up. This season hasn’t been nearly as successful.
Kansas City has alternated wins and losses in each of its past six games, and it is actually 3-4 SU across the past seven, and just 2-6 ATS this season. Like the Pack, the Chiefs have been on an UNDER run, going 3-0 over the past three. That’s because QB Patrick Mahomes and the offense have had a bit of a power outage, going for just 20, 3, 31 and 20. The 31-point spurt was against the Washington Football Team, a common opponent with the Packers. Both teams won and covered in an UNDER result vs. WAS.
While the offense has struggled a bit lately, including an uninspiring 20-17 win on Monday night against the lowly and extremely banged up New York Giants, the offense is still averaging 412.9 total yards per game to check in fourth. And the offense has 26.0 PPG to rank 10th, it just hasn’t happened a lot lately.
The approach of the offense has had to change a bit once RB Clyde Edwards-Helaire went down, and he is out indefinitely. RBs Darrel Williams and Derrick Gore showed some signs of life against the Giants, so perhaps things are looking up in that department.
It’s the defense which has really struggled, allowing an un-championship-like 391.5 total yards per game, struggling the most against the pass. The Chiefs are yielding 269.8 yards per game through the air, culminating in 27.5 PPG, which ranks 25th in the NFL.
Inside the Stats - Green Bay Packers
- Record: 7-1
- Division Standing: 2-0
- Points Scored: 192
- Points Allowed: 167
- PS/G: 24.0
- PA/G: 20.9
Inside the Stats - Kansas City Chiefs
- Record: 4-4
- Division Standing: 0-1
- Points Scored: 208
- Points Allowed: 220
- PS/G: 26.0
- PA/G: 27.5
Key Players to Watch
- GNB: Jordan Love - QB (5/7, 68 yards, 0 TD 0 INT)
- GNB: Davante Adams - WR (52 catches, 744 yards, 3 TD)
- KNC: Patrick Mahomes - QB (216/325, 2,368 yards, 19 TD, 10 INT)
- KNC: Tyreek Hill - WR (64 catches, 735 yards, 6 TD)
Green Bay Packers vs. Kansas City Chiefs Betting Conclusion
The Packers might be missing Rodgers, but that doesn’t mean this team doesn’t have the tools to overcome his brief absence and get it done against the Chiefs. This Kansas City defense is awful, and it’s a perfect opponent, even in a hostile environment, for a young quarterback to make his first pro start. The Kansas City pass rush can be stout, but the back end of the defense will allow for Love to make throws down the field to WR MDavante Adams and company.
It will be interesting to see if the Chiefs take the air out of the football and keep it on the ground with Williams and Gore. Kansas City needs to find a way to keep its defense off the field as much as possible.
If you’re expecting Mahomes and company to snap out of their funk, it might not happen this week. Green Bay ranks sixth in the NFL against the pass, and this defense is yielding just 331.8 total yards per game.
Green Bay Packers vs. Kansas City Chiefs Betting Trends
- Green Bay has covered the spread in seven straight games overall.
- Green Bay has covered the spread in four consecutive road outings.
- Green Bay has cashed in four of the past five as an underdog.
- Kansas City has covered in just four of the past 18 games as a favorite.
- Kansas City has cashed in just one of the past five against winning teams.
- The UNDER has connected in five straight for Green Bay.
- The UNDER is 5-1 in the past six for Kansas City following a SU loss.