Last Updated Dec 22, 2021, 10:36 AM

Kansas City Chiefs vs. Los Angeles Chargers Predictions, Odds, Picks

Dec. 16, 2021
Dan Dobish
VI Betting Expert
VegasInsider.com

The Kansas City Chiefs (9-4) travel to meet the Los Angeles Chargers (8-5) at SoFi Stadium in Week 15 for Thursday Night Football. Kickoff is scheduled for 8:20 p.m. ET, and the game can be viewed on FOX and NFL Network.

Score Prediction

Chargers 27, Chiefs 23

Best Bets

Chargers +145 ML at WynnBet

Chargers +3.5 (-110) at Treasure Island

Under 51.5 (-110) at PointsBet

1st H Under 24.5 (-110)

Kansas City Chiefs vs. Los Angeles Chargers Predictions

The Chiefs head out to the coast for this titanic battle in the AFC West. If anybody is going to derail their run to another division title, it's the Chargers. The Chiefs have rattled off six consecutive victories, and appear to be peaking at just the right time. The defense, which was basically unwatchable and not of NFL caliber earlier in the season, has really buckled down of late. In fact, the Chiefs have allowed exactly nine points in each of the past three games, and an average of just 10.8 PPG across the six-game win streak.

The Bolts have been doing some heavy lifting of their own lately on offense, averaging 39.0 PPG across the past two victories against the New York Giants and Cincinnati Bengals on the road in Week 13. But to be the champs, you have to beat the champs. They already did that earlier in the season, taking a 30-24 decision at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium in Week 3, winning outright as a 6.5-point underdog. So if they were to win Thursday's game, the Chargers would hold the tiebreaker with the Chiefs by virtue of a season sweep, so this is a giant game for HC Brandon Staley's group. The Chargers are positioned well, but can they get over the hump? We've seen the Chargers get into close games, but come up just short in the end.

Kansas City Chiefs vs. Los Angeles Chargers Betting Odds

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Kansas City Chiefs vs. Los Angeles Chargers Betting Resources

  • Matchup: AFC West
  • Date: Thursday, December 16, 2021
  • Venue: SoFi Stadium
  • Location: Inglewood, California
  • TV-Time: FOX/NFLN - 8:20 p.m. ET

Kansas City Chiefs Betting Analysis

Straight Up - SU, Against the Spread - ATS, Over-Under (O/U)

  • SU: 9-4
  • ATS: 6-7
  • O/U: 6-7
  • ATS - Home: 3-5
  • ATS - Away: 3-2

The Chiefs roll into SoFi having covered a season-high four straight games. In fact, prior to the cover streak which started in Week 10 at Las Vegas, the Chiefs hadn't covered in consecutive outings at any point this season. They were 2-7 ATS heading into that Sunday night affair against the Raiders before re-discovering the offense. In fact, the Raiders have been a good luck charm for the Chiefs, as Kansas City thumped them 48-9 last weekend at Arrowhead. Do yourselves a favor and don't hold a pregame rally on their logo. The Raiders chose to stomp on the KC logo at midfield before the game and it didn't go over well.

The Chiefs are also 4-0 ATS in the past four as a favorite, and 4-0 ATS in the past four following a straight-up win. But dominance against the number isn't anything new for the Chiefs, as they're a whopping 22-10-1 ATS in the previous 33 games inside the division, although one of those non-covers was obviously in Week 3 at home against the Bolts.

As far as the total, there is something about Thursday which gets the Chiefs going. The OVER is 4-1 in the previous five appearances by the team on Thursday, while the remainder of the trends point to the UNDER. The UNDER is 6-2 in Kansas City's past eight games overall, 6-2 in the past eight as a favorite and 4-1 in the previous five tries against teams with a winning overall record.

Los Angeles Chargers Betting Analysis

Straight Up - SU, Against the Spread - ATS, Over-Under (O/U)

  • SU: 8-5
  • ATS: 7-6
  • O/U: 6-7
  • ATS - Home: 3-4
  • ATS - Away: 4-2

The Chargers have managed to limit the mistakes in recent weekends, pounding the Bengals and Giants by an average winning margin of 17.5 PPG. Not that he needed it, but QB Justin Herbert has found a new toy in WR Jalen Guyton, who has two long scoring touchdowns in the past two games. He is a nice downfield threat with WRs Keenan Allen and Mike Williams giving the second-year quarterback quite the cadre of receivers. The emergence of a third threat has the offense flying, and the OVER is 2-0 in the past two, and 3-1 in the past four outings.

The Bolts are looking to tie a season high when they covered three consecutive games from Week 3-5, kicking off the run with an outright win in Kansas City as a near-touchdown 'dog.

The defense has been a little bit better lately, although the Chargers are still the only team in the NFL to average at least 25.8 PPG and allow at least 25.8 PPG this season. You'd think that would lead to plenty of OVER results, and lately, you'd be right. The OVER is 5-2 across the past seven games overall, while going 4-1 across the past five games at home. The OVER is also 8-3 in L.A.'s past 11 games against a team with an overall winning record. However, the UNDER is 4-1 in the past five inside the division, including the first meeting with the Chiefs in Week 3. The UNDER (55) just barely hit, with a total of 54 points on the board, but it counts just the same.

Inside the Stats - Kansas City Chiefs

  • Record: 9-4
  • Division Standing: 3-1
  • Points Scored: 351
  • Points Allowed: 268
  • PS/G: 27.0
  • PA/G: 20.6

Inside the Stats - Los Angeles Chargers

  • Record: 8-5
  • Division Standing: 2-1
  • Points Scored: 351
  • Points Allowed: 336
  • PS/G: 27.0
  • PA/G: 25.8

Key Players to Watch

  • KNC: Tyreek Hill - WR (90 catches, 1,030 yards, 8 TDs)
  • KNC: Patrick Mahomes - QB (329/502, 3,642 yards, 27 TD, 12 INT)
  • LAC: Austin Ekeler - RB (219 touches, 1,265 total yards, 16 total TDs)
  • LAC: Justin Herbert - QB (338/504, 3,822 yards, 30 TD, 11 INT)

Kansas City Chiefs vs. Los Angeles Chargers Betting Conclusion

The Chiefs have re-discovered their championship form, last tasting defeat way back on Oct. 24 when there were still colored leaves on the trees. It would be easy to pick Kansas City to win a seventh consecutive game, and cover a fifth in a row, but you can't discount what the Chargers have been doing, too. Sure, beating the Giants is no major feat, especially with QB Mike Glennon at the helm right now. But they went into Cincinnati and mostly shut down a powerful offense, similar to the one which will be across the field from them on Thursday night. And in this Thursday games, it's typically much better to be on your home field rather than having to travel on a short week.

We saw Minnesota fire out of the chute last week before Pittsburgh finally found its sea legs in the second half. But it was too little, too late. The previous two Thursday results can mostly be discounted from this theory, because the home team each time was the New Orleans Saints, with a third-string quarterback at the helm. But in Week 10 we saw the Miami Dolphins stun the Baltimore Ravens in South Florida. In Week 9 we saw the Indianapolis Colts rout the New York Jets at home. It's good to be home on these short weeks, and the Chargers have already shown they can beat this Chiefs team. I like the underdog to win straight up, with a slight lean to the UNDER.

Kansas City Chiefs vs. Los Angeles Chargers Betting Trends

  • The Chiefs are 4-0 ATS in the past four games overall.
  • The Chiefs are 22-10-1 ATS in the past 33 divisional games.
  • The Chiefs are 8-3-1 ATS in the past 12 games in December.
  • The Chargers are 5-0 ATS in the past five games in December.
  • The Chargers are 5-2 ATS in the past seven against winning teams.
  • The Chargers are 4-1 ATS in the past five as an underdog.
  • The UNDER is 6-2 in the past eight games for the Chiefs.
  • The UNDER is 4-1 in the past five divisional games for the Chargers.
  • The Chiefs are 0-3-1 ATS in the past four games vs. the Chargers.


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