Last Updated Sep 11, 2022, 12:32 PM

New England Patriots vs. Miami Dolphins Picks, Predictions, Odds

Week 1 of the NFL season will resume on Sunday afternoon with an AFC East battle between the New England Patriots and Miami Dolphins. Coverage begins from Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens at 1:00 p.m. ET on CBS.

NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS vs. MIAMI DOLPHINS BETTING PREDICTION

The Dolphins and Patriots met up in Weeks 1 and 18 last season, and Miami took both contests, marking the first time the Fins have swept New England since 2017. In their first matchup, the Patriots outgained Miami by 125 yards, however, two turnovers and pair of missed field goals led to the Dolphins escaping with an ugly 17-16 victory in Week 1. The Dolphins also won a rather meaningless matchup against New England in Week 18, as Miami had already been eliminated from playoff contention with an 8-8 record; while the Patriots had already locked up a Wild Card spot at 10-6.

The Dolphins have tons to feel confident about heading into the season, as they went 8-5 with Tua Tagovailoa under-center last year, compared to 1-3 without him; and the addition of All-Pro WR Tyreek Hill should improve Miami’s offense by leaps and bounds. However, I like the Patriots in this spot, as aside from their pair of victories over New England, the Dolphins’ other seven wins came against a lackluster group of opponents in the Texans, Giants, Panthers, Saints, Ravens, and Jets (2) last season; so, I’m still not quite sold on this Miami squad.

Score Prediction: Patriots 24, Dolphins 20
Best Bet: Patriots ML (+150)

NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS vs. MIAMI DOLPHINS BETTING ODDS

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NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS vs. MIAMI DOLPHINS BETTING RESOURCES

Date: Sunday, Sept. 11, 2022
Matchup: AFC East
Venue: Hard Rock Stadium
Location: Miami Gardens, Florida
Time-TV: CBS, 1:00 p.m. ET

NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS BETTING ANALYSIS

The Patriots finished second in the AFC East with a record of 10-7 last season, earning the second Wild Card spot in the conference and a playoff rematch against the division champs in Buffalo; however, the Bills quickly asserted a 27-3 lead in the first half of their rubber match, and New England simply couldn’t stop the bleeding (L, 47-17).

The end result was ultimately disappointing, but overall, the Patriots still played very well in Mac Jones’ rookie campaign under-center, as the Patriots’ offense finished the year ranked 7th in scoring and 10th in yardage per play in his first NFL season (26.6 PPG, 5.7 YPP).

However, New England’s identity truly resides with its defense under head coach Bill Belichick, as the Patriots also ranked 3rd in points allowed and 7th total yardage allowed last season (19.4 PPG, 320 YPG); which should almost always keep them in the playoff hunt.

The Dolphins are 6-0 SU in their last six home games. (Getty Images)

MIAMI DOLPHINS BETTING ANALYSIS

The Dolphins finished third in the AFC East with a record of 9-8 last season, falling just half-a-game short of Pittsburgh for the final Wild Card spot in the conference (9-7-1); however, Miami didn’t have its sights set on the playoffs for most of the year, as the Dolphins stumbled out to a miserable 1-7 start, which was followed by an impressive 8-1 run to close the season.

Miami boasts great upside heading into the season, considering the Dolphins went 8-5 with starting QB Tua Tagovailoa under center last year, and 1-4 without him. However, Tua’s status probably didn’t sway last year’s results very much, as Miami posted losses in matchups against the Bills, Buccaneers, Colts, and Raiders in his absence; and wins over the Panthers, Giants, Saints, and Jets (2) in his presence.

The Dolphins were borderline top ten in the league defensively last season, as the Dolphins finished the year 15th in points allowed and 10th in yardage allowed per play (21.9 PPG, 5.3 YPP), while also forcing 1.5 turnovers per game; however, it’s tough to hold down the fort behind an offense that ranks 22nd in scoring and 29th in yardage per play (20.1 PPG, 4.8 YPP). Miami’s offense should be much better with Tua back at full strength and the addition of Hill, though.

NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS vs. MIAMI DOLPHINS BETTING TRENDS

  • The Patriots are 1-4 ATS in their last five games.
  • The Dolphins are 7-2 ATS in their last nine games.
  • The total has gone UNDER in seven of Miami's last ten games.
  • The total has gone OVER in four of New England's last five games.
  • The Patriots are 1-4 ATS in their last five games against Miami.
  • The total has gone UNDER in nine of New England's last 13 road games.
  • The total has gone UNDER in six of Miami's last nine games against New England.
  • The Dolphins are 6-0 SU in their last six home games.
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