Last Updated Sep 29, 2022, 10:59 PM

Miami Dolphins vs. Cincinnati Bengals Picks, Predictions, Odds

Week 4 of the NFL season will begin on Thursday night with a heavyweight AFC clash between the Miami Dolphins and Cincinnati Bengals. Coverage begins from Paycor Stadium at 8:15 p.m. ET on Amazon Prime TV.


The Bengals stumbled out to a surprisingly slow start following their impressive trip to last year’s Super Bowl, as Joe Burrow and co. posted a pair of head-scratching losses to the Steelers and Cowboys in their first two matchups of the season, while averaging just 18.5 PPG and turning the ball over five times across those two contests. However, Cincinnati bounced back in Week 3, as the Bengals cruised to an easy 27-12 victory over the Jets this past Sunday.

The Dolphins, on the other hand, are off to a red-hot start to the year, as Miami currently stands as the lone undefeated squad in the AFC after posting an impressive trio of wins over the Patriots, Ravens and Bills to open the season, while racking up 27.7 PPG on 355 YPG across those three contests.

I’ll back Miami here, as Cincy’s o-line successfully held down the fort in the Meadowlands this past Sunday, as Burrow went down for just two sacks during a double-digit victory over the Jets in Week 3, however, the Bengals surrendered 13 sacks in their two games prior to that, and I expect those o-line struggles to return against a tough Dolphins’ defense that’s allowed 19 PTS or less in two-of-three matchups to open the season.

Score Prediction: Dolphins 24, Bengals 20
Best Bet: Dolphins ML (+165)


More Odds | Super Bowl Odds | Expert Picks


Date: Thursday, Sept. 29, 2022
Matchup: AFC East vs. AFC North
Venue: Paycor Stadium
Location: Cincinnati, Ohio
Time-TV: Amazon Prime TV, 8:15 p.m. ET


The Dolphins finished third in the AFC East with a record of 9-8 last season, falling just half-a-game short of Pittsburgh for the final Wild Card spot in the conference (9-7-1). However, Miami wasn’t considered a serious playoff contender for most of the year, as the Dolphins opened with a miserable 1-7 skid, which was followed by a impressive 8-1 run to close the season.

Miami had lots to feel good about heading into the season, as the Dolphins chalked up last year’s campaign to going 8-5 with QB Tua Tagovailoa under center, and 1-4 without him. However, Tua’s status didn’t appear to have much bearing in last year’s results, as Miami posted losses in matchups against the Bills, Buccaneers, Colts, and Raiders in his absence; and wins over the Panthers, Giants, Saints, and Jets (2) in his presence.

The Dolphins’ defense was borderline top ten in the league last year, as Miami surrendered 21.9 PPG on 337 YPG and 1.5 turnovers per game. However, it’s tough to string together wins when your offense is averaging just 20 PPG on the other side of the ball, which is roughly what Miami averaged last season.

The Dolphins are are 11-1 SU in their last 12 games. (Getty Images)


The Bengals posted an incredibly disappointing start after coming just three points shy of winning last year’s Super Bowl, as the reigning AFC Champs lost their first two matchups of the season against the Steelers and Cowboys, making Cincinnati just the sixth team in the Super Bowl era to start 0-2 immediately following a trip to the big game.

There wasn’t much to feel good about in Cincy’s defeats either, as the Bengals turned the ball over five times and shanked a game-winning 29-yard field goal against Pittsburgh in Week 1 (L, 23-20), and then followed that up with an ugly loss to Cooper Rush and the Cowboys in Week 2 (L, 20-17).

However, Cincy finally got back on track in Week 3, as the Bengals jumped out to a 7-0 lead on their opening drive of last week’s contest against the Jets, and never trailed en route to a comfortable 15-point victory this past Sunday.


  • The Dolphins are are 5-1 ATS in their last six games.
  • The Bengals are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games.
  • The total has gone UNDER in nine of Miami's last 13 games.
  • The total has gone UNDER in eight straight Bengals' games.
  • The Dolphins are are 11-1 SU in their last 12 games.
  • The total has gone UNDER in six of Cincinnati's last seven games against Miami.
  • The Dolphins are 11-4 ATS in their last 15 games against Cincinnati.
  • The Bengals are 4-1 ATS in their last five home games.
  • The Dolphins are 14-4 SU in their last 18 games against Cincinnati.
  • The total has gone UNDER in four of Miami's last five road games.
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