Last Updated Nov 12, 2022, 6:16 PM

TNF Falcons vs. Panthers Player Prop Best Bet

Prop betting expert Stuart Durst is back on the gridiron to give out his top play in Thursday night's primetime matchup between the Atlanta Falcons and Carolina Panthers. Check out his prediction below, along with other VI Expert Picks!

Falcons vs. Panthers Player Prop Pick

  • Kyle Pitts (ATL) Over 59.5 Receiving Yards (+300)

Kyle Pitts (ATL) Over 59.5 Receiving Yards

While I was making my personal lines for this game on monday, I had receiver Drake London at 39 & Kyle Pitts at 45. While London dropped exactly there, Pitts was actually under him at 37 receiving yards. The biggest concern at this point to me is actually going to be the weather conditions, which are seemingly trending towards some windy conditions. While rain affects both the offense and defense fairly equally, wind severely hampers the quarterbacks ability to get the ball to the receiver. While we don't fully know the forecast yet, it will be something we need to monitor over the course of the week. 

While Pitts at his regular number is definitely a solid bet, I like the opportunity to get exposure to him while lowering my risk. At the end of the day, Atlanta is a running team and back-to-back first round offensive picks seemingly aren't going to change that. Despite the fact that they are a rushing team, we are finally seeing them devote more looks towards Kyle Pitts. Pitts actually isn't even having a terrible season for a tight end, but the insane expectations coming out of the draft have given a sour taste to many fantasy owners/bettors. 

Mariota said in an interview this week that, "I can do a better job of giving Kyle more opportunities with the ball" and I think the general sports community will agree with that sentiment. Kyle Pitts just saw 197 air yards in Week 9, the most air yards a tight end has seen in a game this season last week, lets hope we get more of that going forward. Mariota may overthrow all the deep balls, but giving the athletic monster more opportunities is a huge net positive.

The good news here is that we’ve seen the usage increase over his last three weeks. He’s seen 5,7, and 9 targets in those games, and cleared 80 yards against the Panthers just two weeks ago. While I’m not anticipating quite the same high flying game environment, it is good to see him succeed against the team he’s facing off against on Thursday night. Neither of these two teams are very good, but a competitive game script should be good for this prop. The Falcons will run the ball plenty, especially if the conditions are bad, but that should open a couple deep shot opportunities that they will need to be able to take advantage of. This is a good way to attack the skill position players while still limiting risk incase of a very slow rainy game situation. 

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