Last Updated Nov 24, 2022, 11:49 AM
NFL Week 11 Parlay Picks and Predictions
Sports Betting Expert
Betting expert Michael Crosson provides his top parlay selections for Week 11 of the NFL season. Odds provided by DraftKings.
ATS Parlay Best Bet
- Philadelphia Eagles -7 (-110) @ IND
- Cincinnati Bengals -4 (-110) @ PIT
Philadelphia Eagles -7 at IND
The Eagles have arguably been the best team in football through the first 10 weeks of the season, as Philly racked up 27.3 PPG and allowed just 18.6 PPG across an impressive 8-1 run to open the year, which ranks Top 7 in the league in both departments.
However, some chatter always remained regarding their underwhelming strength of schedule thus far, and last week’s performance against Washington didn’t exactly help their case, as the Eagles scored just 21 PPG on 264 YDS and turned the ball over four times in a head-scratching 32-21 home loss to the Commanders this past Monday, which appears to be an outlier after turning the ball over just three times across their first eight contests of the season.
The Colts, on the other hand, have been an absolute disaster on the offensive side of the ball so far this season, as Indy averaged just 16.5 PPG and turned the ball over a whopping 17 times across their first nine games of the year, quickly resulting in the benching of QB Matt Ryan and the firing of head coach Frank Reich.
However, interim head coach Jeff Saturday appeared to provide a spark for this squad in Week 10, as the Colts went back to Ryan under center in their latest affair, and it worked out beautifully, as Indy tallied 25 PTS on 415 total yards in a road win over the Raiders this past Sunday.
I’ll back Philly here, though, as I’m still not ready to buy into this Colts squad after seeing them score 20 PTS or less in eight-of-nine games to open the year, especially heading into a matchup against an Eagles squad that ranks third in the league in scoring and fourth in total offense.
Cincinnati Bengals -4 at PIT
The Bengals stumbled out to a lackluster 2-3 start to the season, which was an incredibly out of character run for this squad, as their defense allowed just 17.8 PPG and forced eight turnovers across their first five games of the year, which wasn’t quite enough to carry an offense averaging just 21.6 PPG during that span.
However, Cincy’s offense has certainly pulled its weight since that stretch, as Joe Burrow and co. enter Sunday following performances of 30+ PTS in three of their last four games, resulting in a solid record of 3-1 during that span.
I’ll back Cincy here, as the Bengals’ offense clearly lacks weaponry in the absence of their top WR Ja’Marr Chase, however, I think we’ll see them gain enough traction to run away with a road win over a Steelers squad that’s scored 20 PTS or less in eight straight games.
ML Parlay Best Bet
- Dallas Cowboys ML (-120) @ MIN
- Washington Commanders ML (-165) @ HOU
Dallas Cowboys ML at MIN
Minnesota has played an impressive brand of football through the first 10 weeks of the season, as the Vikings racked up 25.1 PPG and allowed just 21.2 PPG across an 8-1 start to the year, which was seemingly validated by a thrilling road win over the Bills in their latest affair (W, 33-30).
Dallas, on the other hand, rode quite the rollercoaster through the first half of season, as the Cowboys scored 21.4 PPG and allowed just 15.8 PPG across a 4-1 run in their five games started by backup QB Cooper Rush, opposed to generating 26 PPG and allowing just 21.3 PPG across a 2-2 split with Dak Prescott under center.
I’ll back Dallas here, as three of the Vikings’ wins have come in contests in which they trailed by double-digits in the fourth quarter, which speaks volumes about this squad’s resiliency, however, I think we’ll see their luck run out against a Cowboys defense that’s surrendered 19 PTS or less in six-of-nine matchups this season (18.2 PPG).
Washington Commanders ML at HOU
The Eagles appeared to be an unstoppable force through the first half of the season, which left some people speculating whether Philly had a legitimate shot at running the table for a perfect 17-0 campaign.
However, those conversations came to an abrupt halt in Week 10, as the Eagles posted a head-scratching 32-21 home loss to Washington this past Monday, and now all the Philly praise is on hold until further notice. And rightfully so, as not only did the Commanders hand them their first loss of the season, they made it look pretty easy too. So, where’s the respect for Washington?
The Commanders are now 4-1 in their last five games, while defensively, they smothered their opponents to 17 PPG across that window. And it’s not like they’ve been facing a bunch of scrubs, as Washington’s last five matchups came against the Vikings, Packers, Colts, Bears, and Eagles.
I’ll back Washington here, as the Texans might just be the worst team in the NFL, highlighted by Houston scoring 16.6 PPG and allowing 23 PPG across a miserable 1-7-1 skid to open the season, which ranks 28th and 20th in the league respectively. And while Washington isn’t exactly the cream of the crop in the NFC, you’re getting solid value on the moneyline with a very confident Commanders squad in this matchup.
- Buffalo Bills -2 (-6) vs. CLE
- Raiders-Broncos Under 47.5 (OU 41.5)
Buffalo Bills -2 vs. CLE
The Bills are one of the best teams in the NFL, and there’s nothing that can convince me otherwise, however, they certainly haven’t played like it the last couple weeks, as Buffalo followed up an impressive 6-1 start to the season with back-to-back losses to the Jets and Vikings, while turning the ball over six times across their latest two affairs.
Despite their latest struggles, the Bills still rank second in the league in scoring on both sides of the ball (27.8 OPPG, 16.8 DPPG), but regardless of how many points you score or allow, it’s incredibly difficult to win in this league when you fail to protect the football, and this high-powered Buffalo squad ranking dead-last in giveaways per game is a glaring example of that.
I’ll back Buffalo to get back on track here, as given their frustrating recent state of affairs, Josh Allen and co. might break the scoreboard in Sunday’s matchup against a Browns defensive unit that’s allowed 30+ PTS in three of their last five games (28.6 PPG). And I doubt we'll see Cleveland's offense put up much of a fight after scoring 20 PTS or less in three of their last four outings.
Raiders-Broncos Under 47.5
The Raiders and Broncos lit up the scoreboard for 55 total points in their first meeting of the season back in Week 4, as Derek Carr and co. escaped with their first victory of the year behind an impressive 32-point performance against one of the top defenses in the league, while the Broncos brought up the rear in garbage time for a final score of 32-23.
However, the high-scoring nature of their previous meeting is still an outlier on both of these squads resumes, considering the Broncos have scored 21 PTS or less in five straight contests since that matchup, while this supposedly loaded Raiders’ offense has now scored 20 PTS or less in three of their last five outings (21.4 PPG).
I’ll take an adjusted under here, as Russell Wilson and co. look like deer in headlights every trip down to the redzone, and it’s such a shame, because their defense has absolutely dominated all season, highlighted by Denver ranking first in both points allowed and yards allowed per play (16.6 PPG, 4.6 YPP). But unfortunately, great defense is easily negated by poor offense, and that’s exactly what we’ve seen with the Broncos currently averaging just 14.6 PPG.