Last Updated Jan 04, 2023, 6:21 PM

NFL Week 17 Parlay Picks and Predictions

Betting expert Michael Crosson provides his top parlay selections for Week 17 of the NFL season. Odds provided by DraftKings.

ATS Parlay Best Bet

  • Jacksonville Jaguars -4.5 (-110) @ HOU
  • Detroit Lions -6 (-110) vs. CHI

Payout: +264

Jacksonville Jaguars -4.5 (-110) @ HOU

The Jaguars appeared to be down for the count early in the season, as Jacksonville posted losses in six-of-eight matchups out of the gate with Doug Pederson at the helm, which was a bit concerning with five of those losses coming by relatively wide margins of 6+ points.

However, Jacksonville is having an excellent second half of the season, considering the Jaguars are now 5-2 in their last seven games, which in turn, has allowed them to knot things up with the Titans at the top of the AFC South standings prior to this week. And if both squads happen to stay on course, Jacksonville and Tennessee will meet for a winner-take-all matchup for the division crown in Week 18.

The Texans managed to escape with a 19-14 road victory in Tennessee last week, but don’t be fooled by their latest triumph. This Houston squad already asserted itself as the clear-cut, worst team in football several weeks ago, and piling on against the skidding Titans doesn’t change anything.

The first meeting between these teams was an absolute slugfest, as the Texans picked up their first win of the season with a 13-6 road victory over Jacksonville back in Week 5.

However, the Jaguars are a scoring machine now, highlighted by Trevor Lawrence and co. racking up 27+ points in four of their last seven contests. So, there’s a good chance Jacksonville runs away with this matchup against the Texans 30th ranked offensive attack.

Detroit Lions -6 (-110) vs. CHI

Prior to last week, the Lions were widely regarded as one of the hottest teams in football, as Jared Goff and co. entered their previous affair following wins in six of their last seven games, while averaging a lofty 28 PPG on the offensive side of the ball across that stretch, and their only loss coming in a tightly contested matchup against Buffalo.

However, last week in Carolina, the Lions fell behind by 17 points early in the first half, and everything just slowly spiraled out of control on the way to a 37-23 road loss. But fortunately, they return home to face the Bears this Sunday, which should be the perfect get-right spot for them.

The Bears have now lost 11 of their last 12 games, with over half of those losses coming by distant margins of 6+ points, and things are slowly getting worse in Chicago. At one point, this squad was considered a frisky lower-level team, but that was only during a brief stint in which they scored 24+ points in five straight contests.

Justin Fields and co. have cooled off as of late, though. However, that’s the least of Chicago’s concerns moving forward. The Bears enter Week 17 riding an eight-game losing streak, which primarily stems from their defense surrendering a lofty average of 32.6 PPG in those eight contests. And it’s nearly impossible to win games that way, no matter how great your offensive attack is.

So, I’ll back the Lions to get back on track at home against a Bears squad that’s been abysmal on both sides of the ball recently.

OU Parlay Best Bet

  • Browns-Commanders Under 40.5 (-110)
  • Panthers-Buccaneers Under 39.5 (-110)

Payout: +264

Browns-Commanders Under 40.5 (-110)

The Browns’ offense has looked terrible in the waking days of Deshaun Watson Era, considering Cleveland has now generated 13 points or less in four straight games since the four-time Pro-Bowler’s debut. 

But they still managed to come out on top in two of those contests thanks to a significant boost from their defense and special teams in matchups against Houston and Baltimore.

Fortunately, though, they’ll visit the Washington Commanders this week, who’s offense has been terrible pretty much all season. So, the Browns might have a shot at stealing another victory on Sunday afternoon with Carson Wentz set to make his first start for Washington since Week 6.

The Commanders have posted a solid 6-3-1 record in their last nine games, however, any success they’ve experienced is certainly no thanks to their offense, highlighted by Washington tallying 20 points or less in seven of those contests (19.9 PPG).

Their defense continues to dominate, though, considering on the other side of the ball, the Commanders’ defensive unit has surrendered 21 points or less in 10 of their last 11 games, which in turn, has guided Washington’s ailing offense to six victories and a tie during that timeframe.

The Commanders scored less than 20 points in four straight games prior to benching Wentz earlier this season. Which, to the surprise of Ron Rivera, turned out to be consistent regardless of who was under center.

So, I’ll take the under here, as neither of these offensive units have eclipsed the 20-point mark since Week 13, and they probably won’t this week either.

Panthers-Buccaneers Under 39.5 (-110)

The Buccaneers still hold a narrow one-game lead in the NFC South standings, but with a loss to Carolina this Sunday, the Panthers would take the tiebreaker and immediately leapfrog Tampa Bay after beating the Bucs by a score of 21-3 in their first meeting of the season back in Week 7.

The Panthers have posted some monster offensive numbers recently, highlighted by Sam Darnold and co. racking up 30+ points in two of their last three games, resulting in a modest record of 2-1 across their latest stretch.

However, it’s also important to take into account the lack of defensive resistance displayed by the opposition in those matchups, considering the Panthers’ two scoring outbreaks took place against the Lions and Seahawks, a pair of squads that certainly aren’t known for their excellence on the defensive side of the script.

The Buccaneers’ playoff hopes are dangling by a thread heading into Week 17. However, the only reason their playoff hopes are still alive in the first place is because of phenomenal defensive play throughout the season, highlighted by Tampa’s defense ranking Top 10 in the league in scoring at 20.3 points allowed per game.

We’ll probably see the Bucs sneak away with a victory in this contest. But Tom Brady and co. have only topped the 21-point mark three times this season. So, I’ll take the under in what will probably be a two-way defensive battle for the division crown.

Six-Point Teaser

  • San Francisco 49ers -4 (-10) @ LVR
  • Minnesota Vikings +9 (+3) @ GB

Payout: -120

San Francisco 49ers -4 (-10) @ LVR

The Raiders have decided to bench Derek Carr in favor of Jarrett Stidham for the remainder of the season, and following the news, the spread for this matchup immediately shifted four points from Niners -6 to -10. This Raiders squad has several issues, and Carr’s interception problem has certainly been one of them throughout the year. 

However, this is a guy that’s completed 61% of his passes for 235 yards per game and 24 touchdowns this season. And not to mention, his previously established chemistry with Davante Adams was the the driving force behind the Raiders' acquisition of the All-Pro wideout last offseason.

McDaniels has been given countless opportunities to try to kickstart this offense by benching Carr. But does he really think it’s a good idea to trot out Stidham for his first career start against the Niners’ top-ranked defensive unit? 

The Raiders already appear to be searching for an excuse for the home beatdown that’s likely coming this Sunday. And honestly, I can’t blame them. The Niners have now won nine straight games, and they’re averaging over 31 PPG on the offensive side of the ball since handing the keys to Brock Purdy in Week 13. So, I’ll back San Francisco here.

Minnesota Vikings +9 (+3) @ GB

So, if you haven’t already heard, the Vikings pretty much only play close games, highlighted by 11 of Minnesota’s 12 wins coming by relatively slim margins of eight points or less throughout their impressive 12-3 campaign.

However, Green Bay remains the lone exception to that claim, as Minnesota’s Week 1 victory over the Packers came by a score of 23-7, which still marks the Vikings’ only win by multiple possessions on the season.

The Cheeseheads have proclaimed all week that the Pack is Back after stringing together a three-game win streak against the Bears, Rams, and Dolphins. And while, admittedly, their road win over Miami was impressive. I’m still not buying into the Packers just yet, especially as favorites against a 12-win squad.

The Vikings have now scored 27+ points in five of their last seven games, and they’ll probably post a similar scoring output against a Packers defense that’s been shredded for 27+ points in six of their last ten outings.

At the very least, the Vikings should be able to keep this game close, which aligns with their nasty habit of partaking in back-and-forth contests. So, I’ll take the Vikings +9, and hope that Aaron Rodgers doesn’t light up Minnesota’s subpar defense for a million points this Sunday.

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