Jan. 14, 2022
The NFL Wild Card begins on Saturday, January 15 and concludes on Monday, January 17 as Michael Crosson gives us his best prop bets to consider for all of the weekend action!
Joe Burrow (CIN/QB) Over 261.5 Passing Yards (-115)
After posting a strong rookie campaign, Bengals’ QB Joe Burrow stumbled out to a slightly underwhelming start to this season, considering the second-year signal-caller threw for just 213.3 YPG and turned the ball over four times during the first three weeks of the year.
Burrow has been phenomenal since Week 4 though, considering the LSU product threw for 260+ YDS in 9-of-15 contests following his somewhat lackluster three-game stretch – highlighted by 300-yard performances in four of his last five matchups.
I’ll take Burrow’s passing yards over here, as Cincy’s sophomore signal-caller should have a big day at home against a Raiders squad that surrendered 355 passing yards to Justin Herbert and the Chargers in a must-win Week 18 affair.
Josh Allen (BUF/QB) Over 45.5 Rushing Yards (-110)
Over the last few seasons, the Bills elected to prioritize the health of superstar QB Josh Allen by significantly cutting back on his designed runs during the early part of the year, as Buffalo’s signal-caller rushed for 45+ YDS just three times across Weeks 1 through 13 (6.2 ATT/PG, 35.2 YPG).
Buffalo’s offense played with a visible sense of urgency down the homestretch though, considering Allen rushed for 68.2 YPG on 9.4 carries per game across the last five weeks of the season – racking up 60+ YDS in four of those affairs.
I’ll take Allen’s rushing over here, as Buffalo’s signal-caller rushed 12 times for 64 YDS during his team’s 33-21 victory over New England back in Week 16 – and he’ll likely improvise through the ground game even more in Saturday night’s highly anticipated rubber match.
Jalen Hurts (PHI/QB) Over 45.5 Rushing Yards (-110)
After opening the season with a discouraging 2-5 SU and 3-4 ATS skid, people were quickly left wondering whether Philadelphia made the right decision to cut ties with Doug Pederson and Carson Wentz – as the Eagles scored 22 PTS or less in five of their first seven contests (22.7 PPG).
Philadelphia quickly found its offensive identity through the run game though, as the Eagles racked up 28.5 PPG across Weeks 8 through 18 – highlighted by their top-ranked rushing attack averaging 189.8 YPG on the ground during that timeframe.
I’ll back Hurts’ rushing over here, as Philadelphia’s signal-caller certainly utilizes his legs when necessary, considering Hurts averaged 52.3 YPG on 9.3 carries per game during the regular season, while tallying 60+ YDS on the ground in seven of those affairs – and we’ll likely get all the tricks in the book from Philly in Sunday’s tough matchup against the defending champs.
George Kittle (SFO/TE) – Over 4.5 Catches (-110)
The Niners struggled through the first half of the season due to a constant rotation of health issues, and All-Pro TE George Kittle was no exception, considering Kittle missed four weeks with a calf injury prior to Week 9 – and averaged just 56.8 YPG on 4.8 receptions per game across the four matchups that he participated in during that span.
I’ll back him to catch five passes on Wild Card Weekend though, as Kittle quickly settled into a rhythm in the second half, as the All-Pro hauled in five or more receptions in six-of-nine games while averaging 75.9 YPG to close the regular season – and Kyle Shanahan will likely prioritize his touches in a tough road matchup against Dallas.
Diontae Johnson (PIT/WR) – Over 61.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
After averaging a solid 76.2 YPG on 6.2 receptions per game across Weeks 1 through 14, Steelers’ wideout Diontae Johnson had a relatively uneventful final few weeks of the regular season – considering Johnson averaged just 42.7 YPG on 6.5 catches per game across his last four appearances.
I’ll take his receiving yards over on Sunday night though, as the Chiefs should win this matchup by a comfortable margin – likely resulting in Ben Roethlisberger and Johnson linking up for a handful of chunk plays in garbage time.
Zach Ertz (ARI/TE) – Over 5.5 Receptions (+105)
After being acquired by Arizona in Week 6, it took a little while for Zach Ertz to develop chemistry within his new offensive scheme, as the former Eagle averaged just 45.3 YPG on 3.5 receptions per game across his first four appearances with the Cardinals.Ertz has been instrumental to the Cardinals’ offensive attack since Week 11 though, considering the three-time Pro-Bowler averaged 56.2 YPG on six catches per game across his last seven outings.
So, I’ll back him to catch six passes at plus odds on Monday night, as Ertz closed out the regular season with 6+ REC in four straight games – and he’ll likely continue to serve as Kyler’s safety valve for the length of his tenure in Arizona.