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Last Updated Apr 05, 2022, 01:28 AM

Toronto Maple Leafs vs. Tampa Bay Lightning Picks, Predictions, Odds

The Toronto Maple Leafs (44-19-5) will meet the Tampa Bay Lightning (41-19-5) at Amalie Arena in Tampa, Fla. on Monday night in an Atlantic Division clash. Puck drop is scheduled for 7:00 p.m. ET, and the game can be viewed on NHL Network.

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Score Prediction

Lightning 3, Maple Leafs 2

Best Bet

Lightning -128

TORONTO MAPLE LEAFS vs. TAMPA BAY LIGHTNING PREDICTIONS

The Maple Leafs have registered four consecutive victories, and the wins haven't been cheapies. Toronto has recorded wins against the playoff-bound Florida Panthers and Boston Bruins, as well as the playoff-hopeful Winnipeg Jets and struggling Philadelphia Flyers. During the impressive four-game run the Leafs have scored at least five goals, going for 6.0 GPG during the span. Toronto is working on a streak of 14 straight games with two or more goals dating back to March 2, a stunning home loss to the Buffalo Sabres.

The Lightning were tripped up 5-4 at home in a shootout against the Montreal Canadiens on Saturday, the second end of a back-to-back set at home. Tampa Bay still hasn't lost in regulation in the past five games (4-0-1) since a 3-2 loss in Boston. The team's last setback at home was March 19 against the New York Rangers. After a power outage in the goal department, the Lightning has averaged 4.3 GPG across the past four outings, scoring at least four goals in each of the contests.

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TORONTO MAPLE LEAFS vs. TAMPA BAY LIGHTNING BETTING ODDS

Maple Leafs +112
Lightning -128
Maple Leafs +1.5 (-213)
Lightning -1.5 (+190)
Over 6.5 (-105)
Under 6.5 (-102)

More Odds | Futures Odds

TORONTO MAPLE LEAFS vs. TAMPA BAY LIGHTNING BETTING RESOURCES

  • Date: Monday, April 4, 2022
  • Matchup: Atlantic vs. Atlantic
  • Venue: Amalie Arena
  • Location: Tampa, Fla.
  • TV-Time: NHL Network, 7:30 p.m. ET

TORONTO MAPLE LEAFS BETTING ANALYSIS

Straight Up - SU, Against the Spread - ATS, Over-Under (O/U)

  • SU: 44-19-5
  • ATS: 30-38
  • O/U: 38-27-3

The Maple Leafs are facing the Lightning for the first time since dropping a 5-3 decision on home ice to the Lightning on Dec. 9 as the OVER connected. The Leafs did record a 2-1 overtime victory on Nov. 4 in Tampa behind Jack Campbell, as William Nylander took advantage of a slashing call on Victor Hedman for the power-play goal and game winner.

The Leafs have registered five wins in the past six games against teams with a winning overall record, while going 5-1 in the past six on a day of rest, too. Toronto has picked up 14 victories in the past 20 inside the Atlantic Division, while going 23-8 in the past 31 Eastern Conference tilts. However, the Leafs are 1-4 in the past five as a road 'dog.

For totals, it's all about the OVER for Toronto lately. The OVER is 31-12-3 in the past 46 games overall, while going 11-5-2 in the past 18 games against Eastern Conference teams. The OVER is 20-6-1 in the past 27 games on the road, while going 4-0 in the past four as a road 'dog. The OVER is also 8-3-1 in the past 12 games inside the Atlantic Division, while going 7-0 in the past seven games on a Monday, for whatever that's worth.

TAMPA BAY LIGHTNING BETTING ANALYSIS

Straight Up - SU, Against the Spread - ATS, Over-Under (O/U)

  • SU: 43-18-7
  • ATS: 31-37
  • O/U: 34-32-2

The Lightning are looking to get back into the win column after a 5-4 shootout loss to the Habs. They're actually 1-3-1 in the past five games against teams from north of the border dating back to March 1.

Tampa has won four of the past five games overall, while going 38-14 in the past 52 games as a favorite. The Lightning have managed 51 of the past 72 games at Amalie, while going 62-20 in the past 82 in the Atlantic Division. Surprisingly, though, the Lightning are just 1-7 in the past eight against teams with a winning percentage of .600 or higher.

In terms of the total, the UNDER has hit in nine of the past 12 games overall, while going 7-3 in the past 10 as a favorite. The UNDER is also 6-2-1 in the past nine against Eastern Conference foes. The OVER is 5-2-1 in the past eight games at home, however.

The road team has won the first two meetings this season between the Lightning and Leafs. (AP)

TORONTO MAPLE LEAFS vs. TAMPA BAY LIGHTNING BETTING CONCLUSION

The road team has ended with six victories in the past eight meetings in this series, including both games so far this season. The UNDER is 9-4 in the past 13 meetings at Amalie Arena, too, including that 2-1 overtime win by the Leafs, as Campbell outdueled Andrei Vasilevskiy. Campbell, 25-9-4 with a 2.66 GAA and .914 SV% with four shutouts looks to take care of the Lightning in this Atlantic Division showdown. They'll also face each other in this same building on April 21, too.

Both teams enter with 93 points apiece with just 14 games remaining in the Atlantic Division. In fact, if the season ended today, these teams would face each other.

The Leafs and Lightning have each been rolling along lately, and a first-round playoff series between these two teams would be epic. Look for a tight game in Tampa on Monday, with the home side coming out on top, perhaps in overtime or even a shootout.

TORONTO MAPLE LEAFS vs. TAMPA BAY LIGHTNING BETTING TRENDS

  • Maple Leafs are 5-1 in the past six vs. winning teams.
  • Maple Leafs are 14-6 in the past 20 vs. Atlantic Division teams.
  • Maple Leafs are 23-8 in the past 31 vs. Eastern Conference teams.
  • Maple Leafs are 1-4 in the past five as a road underdog.
  • Lightning are 4-1 in the past five games overall.
  • Lightning are 38-14 in the past 52 as a favorite.
  • OVER is 20-6-1 in the past 27 road games for the Maple Leafs.
  • OVER is 31-12-3 in the past 46 games overall for the Maple Leafs.
  • OVER is 13-5-3 in the past 21 vs. winning teams for the Maple Leafs.
  • OVER is 4-1 in the past five as an underdog for the Maple Leafs.
  • OVER is 11-5-2 in the past 18 vs. Eastern Conference teams for the Maple Leafs.
  • UNDER is 9-3 in the past 12 games overall for the Lightning.
  • UNDER is 6-2-1 in the past nine vs. Eastern Conference teams for the Lightning.
  • OVER is 5-2-1 in the past eight home games for the Lightning.
  • UNDER is 7-3 in the past 10 as a favorite for the Lightning.
  • The road team is 6-2 in the past eight meetings.
  • The UNDER is 9-4 in the past 13 meetings in Tampa.

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