Tampa Bay Lightning vs. Toronto Maple Leafs Picks, Predictions, Odds

Daniel Dobish Sports Betting Expert

13 minute read

The Tampa Bay Lightning and the Toronto Maple Leafs meet at Scotiabank Arena in Toronto, Ont. on Wednesday night for Game 2 of the Eastern Conference Quarterfinals, a best-of-seven series. Puck drop is scheduled for 7:30 p.m. ET, and the game can be viewed on ESPN2.

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Score Prediction

Lightning 3, Maple Leafs 2

Best Bet

Lightning +100
Under 6.5 (-123)

TAMPA BAY LIGHTNING vs. TORONTO MAPLE LEAFS PREDICTIONS

The two-time defending Stanley Cup champion Lightning were punched in the mouth, literally, in Game 1. In today's game, Kyle Clifford would be considered an enforcer, and his boarding incident against Ross Colton gave TBL an early five-minute power-play opportunity. Clifford was given a five-minute major and 10-minute game misconduct and subsequent hearing with the player safety board. Clifford was suspended for one game for the incident, harkening back to the days of Nazem Kadri. Tampa was unable to convert on the five-minute gift, however.

Later, the Leafs showed uncharacteristic toughness late in the game, responding to shenanigans by veteran agitator Corey Perry. Several fights, rough stuff and blood occurred midway through the third period, as these teams officially settled into playoff mode. Will it be a long battle, or a short skirmish? That's up to Tampa in Game 2.

One interesting stat of note for bettors is this - Lightning goaltender Andrei Vasilevskiy is 14-0-0 with a .966 SV% and five shutouts across the past two seasons of playoffs when bouncing back from a playoff loss. Can the Leafs turn that trend around, too?

Updated on 04/25/2024

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TAMPA BAY LIGHTNING vs. TORONTO MAPLE LEAFS BETTING ODDS

Lightning +115
Maple Leafs -120
Lightning +1.5 (-222)
Maple Leafs -1.5 (+198)
Over 6.5 (+102)
Under 6.5 (-105)

More Odds | Futures Odds

TAMPA BAY LIGHTNING vs. TORONTO MAPLE LEAFS BETTING RESOURCES

• Date: Wednesday, May 4, 2022
• Matchup: Atlantic vs. Atlantic
• Venue: Scotiabank Arena
• Location: Toronto, Ont.
• TV-Time: ESPN2, 7:30 p.m. ET

TAMPA BAY LIGHTNING BETTING ANALYSIS

Straight Up - SU, Against the Spread - ATS, Over-Under (O/U)

• SU: 51-24-8
• ATS: 38-45
• O/U: 44-37-2

The Lightning suffered their worst-ever playoff loss, a 5-0 setback in Game 1. But, as a veteran group, this team also knows whether you lose 10-0, 5-0 or 1-0, a loss is still just one loss, and they'll respond in kind with a fresh slate in Game 2. As mentioned above, Vasilevskiy has rebounded rather nicely in the past two seasons following a playoff loss, and if that continues and the Lightning can forge a split in the first two games, Tampa's Game 1 failure will mostly be washed away.

The blanking was rather surprising, however, as the offense had scored 48 total goals in the final nine regular-season games, including an 8-1 thrashing of the Leafs at Amalie Arena on April 21. But the playoffs, literally, are a new season, and the Lightning offense was completely shut down by Jack Campbell in Game 1.

TORONTO MAPLE LEAFS BETTING ANALYSIS

Straight Up - SU, Against the Spread - ATS, Over-Under (O/U)

• SU: 55-21-7
• ATS: 40-43
• O/U: 45-31-7

The Maple Leafs haven't advanced past the first round since 2004, but their Game 1 dominant performance has certainly given fans hope that this might be the year. There are even some people dusting off those Stanley Cup parade plans, which haven't been needed since 1967. But before Biz Nasty and others get you pumped up, be a little more realistic. This is still a team which has been an abject failure in the postseason for the better part of the past two decades, and one Game 1 victory shouldn't change your perspective.

Anyway, still be cautious betting, and don't discount Tampa Bay's recent postseason success. If anybody is going to know how to bounce back, it's Tampa, and if anybody is going to know how to fall back into bad habits, it's Toronto, unfortunately.

TAMPA BAY LIGHTNING vs. TORONTO MAPLE LEAFS CONCLUSION

The Lightning still have nothing to lose in this series, and nothing changed after Game 1. This is a team which has fresh hardware in its trophy case, and fans have been able to rejoice via social media, e-mail, etc. talking about championships. The last time the Leafs won the Stanley Cup, fans would send messages by carrier pigeon and Morse Code.

Perhaps this is a new Leafs team, though. Auston Matthews, who has been criticized for failing to score when it matters most, banged home a power-play goal and another score late. Mitchell Marner came through with a score in the second period of Game 1 to snap a goal drought. Maybe this Toronto team is turning over, pun totally intended, a new leaf.

Still, the money should be on the Lightning until the Maple Leafs prove they are for real - again. The latter did a good job in Game 1, but we'll find out a lot about Toronto in Game 2, and it should be the usual postseason story.

TAMPA BAY LIGHTNING vs. TORONTO MAPLE LEAFS BETTING TRENDS

• Lightning are 5-2 in the past seven games overall.
• Lightning are 4-11 in the past 15 vs. winning teams.
• Lightning are 1-5 in the past six as an underdog.
• Lightning are 1-5 in the past six as a road 'dog.
• Lightning are 4-2 in the past six Eastern QF games.
• Maple Leafs are 49-17 in the past 66 as a favorite.
• Maple Leafs are 39-15 in the past 55 home games.
• OVER is 8-2 in the past 10 games for the Lightning.
• OVER is 4-2 in the past six road games for the Lightning.
• OVER is 38-16-7 in the past 61 for the Maple Leafs.
• OVER is 32-15-6 in the past 53 as a favorite for the Maple Leafs.
• Lightning is 7-4 in the past 11 meetings in Toronto.

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Daniel Dobish

Dan is a handicapper and sports betting expert for VegasInsider with years of experience writing for a number of top publications in the industry. More from Daniel Dobish