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Toronto Maple Leafs vs. Tampa Bay Lightning Picks, Predictions, Odds

Daniel Dobish
Daniel Dobish Sports Betting Expert
13 minute read

The Toronto Maple Leafs will face the Tampa Bay Lightning at Amalie Arena in Tampa, Fla. on Friday night for Game 3 of the Eastern Conference Quarterfinals, a best-of-seven series. The series is tied 1-1. Puck drop is scheduled for 7:30 p.m. ET, and the game can be viewed on TBS.

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Score Prediction

Lightning 4, Maple Leafs 3

Best Bet

Lightning -115
Over 6.5 (+100)

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TORONTO MAPLE LEAFS vs. TAMPA BAY LIGHTNING PREDICTIONS

The Maple Leafs opened with a 5-0 victory in Game 1, as Jack Campbell earned his second-ever NHL postseason shutout. But the proud, two-time defending champion Lightning flipped the script, holding on for a 5-3 victory in Game 2 to square the series at 1-1. Andrei Vasilevskiy is now 15-0 with five shutouts in the past two-plus season in the playoffs following a loss. The Lightning just do not lose consecutive games in the postseason.

After the Leafs gained a ton of confidence in Game 1 with the shutout win, all of that was washed away with the Lightning's convincing win in Game 2, wrestling home-ice advantage away in the process. The Leafs, who have not won a playoff series since 2004, now have their work cut out in what is essentially a best-of-five now, with three games in Tampa.

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TORONTO MAPLE LEAFS vs. TAMPA BAY LIGHTNING BETTING ODDS

Maple Leafs -105
Lightning -115
Maple Leafs +1.5 (-275)
Lightning -1.5 (+220)
Over 6.5 (+100)
Under 6.5 (-120)

More Odds | Futures Odds

TORONTO MAPLE LEAFS vs. TAMPA BAY LIGHTNING BETTING RESOURCES

  • Date: Friday, May 6, 2022
  • Matchup: Atlantic vs. Atlantic
  • Venue: Amalie Arena
  • Location: Tampa, Fla.
  • TV-Time: TBS, 7:30 p.m. ET

TORONTO MAPLE LEAFS BETTING ANALYSIS

Straight Up - SU, Against the Spread - ATS, Over-Under (O/U)

  • SU: 55-22-7
  • ATS: 40-44
  • O/U: 46-31-7

The good news is that the Maple Leafs have managed to outscore the Lightning by an 8-5 margin through the first two games. The bad news is that they have coughed up home-ice advantage, and now need to grab a road victory to get it back.

The good news is that Mitchell Marner, who snapped a long postseason slump with a goal in Game 1, hit another score in Game 2, while Auston Matthews picked up two assists in the losing effort after scoring twice in the series opener.

Toronto has picked up 11 wins in the past 16 games against teams with a winning record. That's the good news. The bad news is the Leafs are 3-7 in the past 10 as a road underdog, while going 4-9 in the past 13 playoff games as an 'dog.

For totals, it's all OVER all the time. The Leafs have cashed the OVER at a 21-5-2 clip in the past 28 games on the road, while going 7-1-1 in the past nine as a road 'dog. The OVER is 4-1-1 in the past six as an underdog, too.

TAMPA BAY LIGHTNING BETTING ANALYSIS

Straight Up - SU, Against the Spread - ATS, Over-Under (O/U)

  • SU: 52-24-8
  • ATS: 39-45
  • O/U: 45-37-2

The Lightning have won two straight Stanley Cup championships, and the major reason why is that they do not string losses together in the postseason. The last time the Lightning lost consecutive games in the playoffs was during their stunning first-round sweep exit to the Columbus Blue Jackets April 10-16, 2019. They're 33-14 in 47 postseason games since that sweep.

Tampa has won six of the past eight games overall, while going 57-24 in the past 81 games at home. They're also 45-20 in the past 65 games as a favorite, while going 27-11 in the past 38 in the postseason when favored. They're also 4-1 in the past five during the Quarterfinals Round.

Like the Leafs, it's all about the OVER lately. Tampa has hit the OVER in nine of the past 11 games overall, while going 5-1 in the past six at home, while hitting the OVER in seven of the past eight when favored.

The Leafs and Lightning meet in a pivotal Game 3 as the series shifts to Tampa. (Getty Images)

TORONTO MAPLE LEAFS vs. TAMPA BAY LIGHTNING CONCLUSION

The favorite has split the first two games of this season, while also splitting the OVER-UNDER in those outings. As the series shifts to Tampa, you can expect plenty of goals. The OVER is 5-2 in the past seven meetings at Amalie Arena.

Marner and Matthews are doing their jobs, which is a big difference from past postseasons for the Leafs, but that dynamic duo certainly needs some help. The Lightning gained the split in Toronto with Vasilevskiy yielding a total of eight goals, so the Leafs haven't yet seen his best yet. That's a bad sign, and a huge performance might be just around the corner for the Lightning netminder, perhaps in Game 3. I think we'll still see at least seven goals, so play the OVER, but don't get crazy.

TORONTO MAPLE LEAFS vs. TAMPA BAY LIGHTNING BETTING TRENDS

  • Maple Leafs are 11-5 in the past 16 vs. winning teams.
  • Maple Leafs are 3-7 in the past 10 as a road underdog.
  • Maple Leafs are 4-9 in the past 13 playoff games as a 'dog.
  • Lightning are 6-2 in the past eight games overall.
  • Lightning are 57-24 in the past 81 home games.
  • Lightning are 45-20 in the past 65 as a favorite.
  • Lightning are 27-11 in the past 38 playoff games as a favorite.
  • Lightning are 4-1 in the past five Eastern QF games.
  • OVER is 21-5-2 in the past 28 road games for the Leafs.
  • OVER is 4-1-1 in the past six as an underdog for the Leafs.
  • OVER is 7-1-1 in the past nine as a road 'dog for the Leafs.
  • OVER is 9-2 in the past 11 games overall for the Lightning.
  • OVER is 5-1 in the past six at home for the Lightning.
  • OVER is 7-1 in the past eight as a fave for the Lightning.
  • Maple Leafs are 5-2 in the past seven trips to Tampa.
  • OVER is 4-1 in the past five meetings.
  • OVER is 5-2 in the past seven meetings in Tampa.
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Daniel Dobish

Daniel Dobish

Dan is a handicapper and sports betting expert for VegasInsider with years of experience writing for a number of top publications in the industry. More from Daniel Dobish
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