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2020 United States Presidential Election Odds

 

This year has been a particularly wild one. It seems like everyone's pissed off and for good reason. But one way or another, most of us Americans feel like everything will come to a head on November 3.

Naturally, though betting on politics is illegal in the US, online sportsbooks around the world are already taking lines on who's winning the election. So while traditional political betting can't be found stateside – see below for what contests you can enter – everyone's wondering: what are President Trump's odds to win? Keep reading for the current 2020 election odds, analysis that goes beyond the polls, and who are the favorites to win.

2020 Presidential Odds
The abrasive tone in the first debate by U.S. President Donald Trump was reflected in polls and betting markets. (AP)

2020 Presidential Odds: Key Info

  • Election Date: November 3, 2020
  • Democrat Candidate: Joe Biden
  • Republican Candidate: Donald J. Trump

Odds to Win 2020 US Presidential Election

Presidential Election Futures
Odds To Win 2020 US Presidential Election (11/3/2020)
Candidate American Fractional Decimal
Joe Biden -200 1/2 1.5
Donald Trump +175 7/4 2.75

Updated Mon, Oct. 19th, 12:45 PM ET - Consensus Odds Provided by VI - Subject to Change

Handicapping the Polls for the Presidency

The 2020 U.S. Presidential election is less than two months away, and Democratic candidate Joe Biden has increased his lead in the polls and various sportsbooks abroad. And some believe that online betting markets are better to forecast who will win on November 3.

The former Vice President is listed around as a -130 favorite with international oddsmakers, including bet365 and William Hill. And who could blame them? Biden has held substantial poll numbers over President Donald Trump the past two months, mainly due to COVID-19 cases rising across the country.

Despite relatively strong Biden election odds, they could be the highwater mark for him before the November election. One the other hand, the president still has plenty of time to right the ship, with Trump betting odds at +105. Granted, this is not quite as attractive a play for a sitting president. But to improve his chances, the president will need to see the economy bounce back and job numbers, after the latest surge in coronavirus cases.

Of course, there were many folks who thought Bernie Sanders might claim the Dem ticket early on in the primary. And during the presidential debates for the Democrat candidate, things seemed on the up and up for Sanders. Many so-called Bernie Bros felt 2020 would make up for 2016. Unfortunately for the presidential nominee hopeful, Biden shored up his lead on Super Tuesday, particularly in North Carolina. Biden went on to win South Carolina, West Virginia, and by mid-March, had an insurmountable lead across the US.

And while there has been publicity for Kanye West after announcing his candidacy, we’re going to say the 200/1 longshot is not going to be a factor. Besides, West seems to have some things he needs to sort out. Andrew Cuomo, for his part, was also briefly considered, at least on some long-shot odds, but the Governor of NY seems content to stay in Albany for the time being.

How Does the US Presidential Election Work?

The United States uses Electoral Colleges to determine the president and vice president. The candidate with 270 Electoral College votes takes the presidency. Each state is assigned a set of votes based on the number of representatives in the House of Representatives, with two more added for the senators each state has in Congress. The candidate with the most votes for a particular state will take all of the Electoral College votes (Nebraska and Maine dole out their Electoral votes based on the proportion of the popular vote each candidate gets) to reach that magic number of 270. But just because you win the presidency doesn’t mean you won the nation’s popular vote.

There have been five instances when the winner hasn’t had more votes by the people. While three of those instances happened during the 1800s (John Quincy Adams, Rutherford B. Hayes, and Benjamin Harrison), we’ve seen it happen in two of the last four presidential elections: George W. Bush in 2000 and Donald Trump in 2016 won against Al Gore and Hillary Clinton, respectively.

And before you ask, yes, global bookmakers offer bets on different party combinations for the Electoral College and popular vote.

U.S. Presidential Election - Swing State Odds

According to many political pundits and news mediums in the United States, the 2020 U.S. Presidential Election between Donald Trump and Joe Biden will be determined by eight critical battlegrounds, which is often called the 'swing states' race.

Those states have been determined below:

U.S. Election - Swing States

  • Arizona
  • Florida
  • Georgia
  • Michigan
  • Minnesota
  • North Carolina
  • Pennsylvania
  • Wisconsin

The roadmap ahead for Trump and Biden is clear – win the swing states and you’ll win the election.

Listed below are the consensus betting odds from legal sportsbooks that are offering markets on who will win the Electoral Votes for each swing state.

Swing State Odds - Democrats vs. Republicans

Swing State Odds
Odds To Win 2020 Swing State Electoral Votes (11/3/2020)
Party Arizona Florida Georgia Michigan
Biden -149 -133 +146 -368
Trump +128 +115 -167 +303
Party Minnesota North Carolina Pennsylvania Wisconsin
Biden -405 -126 -279 -289
Trump +333 +109 +237 +243

Looking above the "Consensus Odds" for the eight states, you can see that Joe Biden is favored in seven races and he's a minus-250 favorite or greater in four of the races, which means he has an implied probability of 71.43% to win those electoral bids.

Updated Mon, Oct. 19th, 12:45 PM ET - Consensus Odds Provided by VI - Subject to Change

Odds to Win 2020 Popular Vote/Electoral College Vote

Odds Subject to Change - Updated Mon, Oct. 19th, 12:45 PM ET

Popular Vote/Electoral College Futures
Party Odds To Win 2020 U.S. Presidential Election Popular Vote/Electoral College (11/3/2020)
Popular Vote/Electoral College American Fractional Decimal
Democrat/Republican +250 5/2 3.5
Republican/Democrat +4200 42/1 43.0
Republican/Republican +700 7/1 8.0
Democrat/Democrat -225 4/9 1.44

How to Bet on Political Odds

Betting on political elections is no different than a typical sports wager. You have your typical money-line or fractional bet. Totals players can get their fix with how many Electoral College votes each candidate wins in the election.

Again, Americans are not legally allowed to bet on politics in the US. That said, one well-known sportsbook, DraftKings, has found a fun way to offer action while following regulations: Pools.

DraftKings Presidential Debate Pool

Players at DraftKings Sportsbook can join the Free $50k Pool: First Presidential Debate now and pick the props you think will win in the debate between Trump and Biden on Tuesday, September 29, at 9:00 PM Eastern. By offering a free-to-enter pool, players can see how their predictions will pan out. The winner of the pool will snag, as you might imagine, the $50k prize.

Beyond the first debate, there's also the DraftKings Sportsbook Presidential Election pool. This one has double the prize, so a total prize pool of $100k! Similar to the debate pool, there are a bunch of props you can choose from. Pick the right answers and you could win the "full monty."

This is definitely unusual in the US. While some regulators may cry foul at a sportsbook offering real money for anything politics related, DraftKings is toeing the line to offer fans a secure, legal way to make the debate a bit more exciting (though we're not sure if 2020 needs any more excitement). In any case, rest assured that the DraftKings $50k Presidential Debate Pool is 100% legal.

If you're new to DraftKings Sportsbook, sign up today and claim a $1000 signup bonus! While this is only for new customers (21+ for the sportsbook, 18+ for the DraftKings DFS and the Debate Pool), anyone of legal betting age can join the Debate Pool, so head over to DraftKings to check it out.

Join the Pool
T&Cs Apply, 21+, only in NJ/PA/WV/IN/IA/CO/IL

Handicapping the Odds for the Democratic Vice Presidential Nominee

Kamala Harris, the junior senator from California, has emerged as the Democratic VP candidate. Before her nomination, William Hill had her as the -175 favorite (bet $175 to win $100) to join Joe Biden’s ticket. Seems they picked right; makes sense for such a storied sportsbook.

Former National Security Advisor Susan Rice (+250) climbed up the chart as a second option as Biden’s running mate. Her background in foreign policy and familiarity with the former VP during the Obama administration certainly lent credence to her chances. Of course, now we know Harris cinched the pick.

Odds to Win 2020 Democratic VP Nomination

Democratic Vice Presidential Nomination Futures
Odds To Win Democratic Vice President Nominee (11/3/2020)
Candidate American Fractional Decimal
Kamala Harris -175 4/7 1.57
Susan Rice +333 10/3 4.33
Karen Bass +1200 12/1 13.0
Tammy Duckworth +1200 12/1 13.0
Elizabeth Warren +1400 14/1 15.0
Michelle Obama +2500 25/1 26.0

Global Sportsbooks Offering US Election Odds

Legal sportsbooks in the United States do not offer odds on the 2020 United States Presidential Election, or any other political election. This is because betting on politics in the US is prohibited by law. That said, some familiar US sportsbooks with a presence in other countries offer election betting markets overseas.

PointsBet's US Election Odds

First up, PointsBet offers their Australian customers some impressive lines on the US Election. Ignoring all of the candidates included just to offer options, PointsBet AU has odds in line with some other sportsbooks, as you'll see. Note, PointsBet displays their lines in decimal odds.

  • Joe Biden: 1.45
  • Donald Trump: 2.75

The global sportsbook also has odds, albeit long shot choices, on the two Vice Presidential candidates.

  • Mike Pence: 201.00
  • Kamala Harris: 301.00
2020 Presidential Odds
Most pundits believe Mike Pence won the first Vice Presidential debate and the oddsmakers agree. (AP)

Unlike much of the media, PointsBet is putting equal chances for both candidates. In addition to the straight outcome, PointsBet is taking wagers on a handful of US Election prop bets:

  • Winning Party
  • Gender of the Next President
  • Popular Vote Winner
  • Electoral College Votes
  • Vote Percentage

Guess we'll have to wait and see what happens in November.

PointsBet US Election Odds

Betfair Exchange Odds for the US Election

Another possibly familiar name, Betfair runs a betting exchange, which is a bit like taking betting and tossing it down to Wall Street. Unlike running 50/50 odds, Betfair Exchange has Biden as a slight favorite to win, though if Trump wins the payout will be slightly better. Like PointsBet, Betfair shows decimal odds and offers most of the same props beyond the outright winner.

  • Joe Biden: 1.36
  • Donald Trump: 3.00
Betfair US Election Odds

Unibet US Presidential Election Odds

Betting fans in New Jersey, Pennsylvania, or Indiana should know Unibet by now, which globally is a huge online sportsbook brand. Americans living on the Canadian border may also have some past experience with Unibet, as they offer typical American odds for our northern neighbors. Unibet is putting Biden and Trump at even odds right now, so they don't seem to have any clearer picture on who will win than most Americans.

  • Joe Biden: -225
  • Donald Trump: +185

Note, Unibet Canada is only taking wagers on the outright winner, so there are no props for the US Election in the "Cold America".

Unibet US Election Odds

Other US Election Global Odds

Two other major betting shops – bet365 and William Hill – that operate in the United States and overseas are offering plenty of opportunities for bettors in those regions.

Fractional Odds

  • Joe Biden 1/2
  • Donald Trump 7/4

American Odds

  • Joe Biden -200
  • Donald Trump +175

Odds Subject to Change - Updated Mon, Oct. 19th, 12:45 PM ET

US Presidential Odds FAQ

Can I bet on the US presidential election? Where?

At this time, it is illegal to bet on politics in the United States. So, short answer, no. However, DraftKings is running free-to-play pools to guess the outcomes of the 2020 US election prop bets. Plus, the DraftKings Presidential Election Pool has a $100,000 prize pool! Check it out today!

How do I bet on the 2020 election?

Again, you can't, not legally anyway. Some offshore bookmakers offer lines, but we absolutely do not recommend that. There's much more risk involved, and you can't be certain you'll receive any winnings or be able to withdraw your money. If you want to get in on the action, try out DraftKings Election Pool!

What kind of election prop bets are there?

The most straightforward political prop bet for the US election is simply 'Who will win the 2020 US presidential election?'. Odds are then presented; currently, Trump is at +175 and Biden is at -200. This makes Trump the underdog, and for you, that means if you bet $100 on Trump winning, and he does, you win $175 (on top of your initial stake of $100).


  
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