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Italy vs. Spain Predictions, Odds, Preview


July 5, 2021
by Toby Maxtone-Smith
Soccer Expert

Italy will face Spain in the first semifinal of Euro 2020 at Wembley Stadium from London, England. The match will kick off at 3:00 p.m. ET and will air live on ESPN nationally.

Popular Euro 2020 Betting Resources

Italy vs. Spain Predictions

Italy are worth backing here at 6/4 in the first Euro 2020 semifinal.

There are far fewer holes in their side, despite the absence of Spinazzola. Their run has been largely a triumph of the collective over the individual in any case: they have no true attacking superstar.

Spain are bold enough to make it an interesting game, but look vulnerable at both ends of the pitch.

Lorenzo Insigne has been impressive all tournament and looks a nice bet to score first at +650.

Score Prediction: Italy 2 Spain 1

Best Bets

  • Italy to win +145
  • Italy to advance -145
  • Lorenzo Insigne (Italy) First Goal Scorer (+650)

Italy vs. Spain Betting Resources

  • Matchup: Group A Winner vs. Group E Runner-up
  • Expert Picks: Vegas Insiders
  • Venue: Wembley Stadium
  • Location: London, England
  • Date: Tuesday, July 6, 2021
  • Time: 3:00 p.m. ET
  • TV: ESPN

Betting Odds - Italy vs. Spain

Bookmakers expect a close match but make Italy the +145 favorites to win the match inside 90 minutes.

Spain are +200 and the draw is +220. Italy are -145 to qualify with Spain at +105.

A low-scoring game is expected, with over 2.5 priced at +120 and under 2.5 at -160.

Odds per BetMGM - Subject to Change

Italy Betting Outlook

Italy have been convincing in four of their five games at the tournament so far. The only exception was the extra time win over Austria in the round of 16. They are rightful favorites and have been an extremely enjoyable team to watch all month.

Against Belgium in the quarterfinals they took a 2-0 lead through two excellent goals from Niccolo Barella and Lorenzo Insigne before closing out the game in typically determined fashion after Belgium pulled a goal back thanks to Romelu Lukaku’s penalty.

Italy’s attack is so fluid and versatile, but the injury to left-back Leonardo Spinazzola is a big blow. He has been one of the players of the tournament and the Azzurri’s attack will undoubtedly be weakened by his absence.

Nonetheless, they can still rely on a world-class spine, with two experienced center-backs and a midfield that exerts more control on matches than any other at this tournament.

Jorginho in particular relishes the slower pace of international football and deserves to make the team of the tournament.

Inside the Stats - Group Matches

  • Straight Up: 4-0-1
  • Over-Under: 3-2
  • Both Teams to Score: 2-3
  • Goals For: 11
  • Goals Against: 2
  • Goals Differential: +9

Spain has managed to reach the Euro 2020 semifinals despite only winning one game in regulation of the tournament. (AP)

Spain Betting Outlook

Where Italy have played well in most of their games, Spain have only put in a truly good all-round performance in one of their five matches - the 5-0 win over Slovakia in the final group game.

They have rather stumbled through the knockout stages, winning 5-3 after extra time in a chaotic match against Croatia before needing penalties to beat a Switzerland side that had 10 men for nearly an hour.

Wasteful finishing has been a big problem, with Alvaro Morata and Gerard Moreno both culpable in front of goal.

Spain are creating a lot of chances, but concede a lot as well. And they may find their routes to goal are blocked by Italy’s organized backline.

Inside the Stats - Group Matches

  • Straight Up: 1-0-4
  • Over-Under: 2-3
  • Both Teams to Score: 3-2
  • Goals For: 10
  • Goals Against: 5
  • Goals Differential: +5

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