Last Updated Nov 28, 2022, 8:35 AM

UEFA Champions League Quarterfinals Predictions

Mar. 26, 2021
Toby Maxtone-Smith
Soccer Expert

UEFA Champions League Quarterfinal Preview and Predictions

The UEFA Champions League is down to eight teams and I've started to handicap the upcoming four matches.

Quarterfinal Betting Fixtures

First Legs: Apr. 6, Apr. 7
Second Legs: Apr. 13, Apr. 14

  • Manchester City vs. Borussia Dortmund (Apr. 6, Apr. 14)
  • Real Madrid vs. Liverpool (Apr. 6, Apr. 14)
  • FC Porto vs. Chelsea (Apr. 7, Apr. 13)
  • Bayern Munich vs. Paris Saint-Germain (Apr. 7, Apr. 13)

Champions League Quarterfinal Predictions

Winners (Teams to Advance)

  • Manchester City
  • Paris Saint-Germain
  • Real Madrid
  • Chelsea

The Champions League quarterfinals and semifinals are drawn simultaneously, layining out for each of the eight remaining teams their route to glory.

The three favourites before the draw was made - Manchester City, Bayern Munich and Paris Saint-Germain - were all drawn in the same half of the draw. Only one will make the final.

Man City remain 9/4 favourites with Bayern up next at 7/2 odds.

The big movers in the market are Chelsea, who are now 5/1 third favourites to lift the trophy. They are 6/4 favourites to make the final from their half of the draw.

Future Odds per BetMGM - Subject to Change

Odds To Win 2020-21 UEFA Champions League (5/29/2021)
Team Odds - American Odds - Fractional
Manchester City +225 9/4
Bayern Munich +350 7/2
Chelsea +500 5/1
Liverpool +600 6/1
Paris Saint-Germain +700 7/1
Real Madrid +1000 10/1
Borussia Dortmund +2500 25/1
FC Porto +3300 33/1

How to Bet the Champions League Quarterfinals

Manchester City vs. Borussia Dortmund

Team to Advance Odds

  • Manchester City -500
  • Borussia Dortmund +300

Manchester City have still never made a meaningful charge in the Champions League, and after shock exits to Liverpool, Tottenham and Lyon in the last three years.

With this year's Premier League title already all but sewn up, City will be focusing all their attention on this title.

Pep Guardiola has tended to overthink his tactics ahead of big European games while at City, so even though they are 1/5 to qualify there is still a lingering possibility of a shock.

The big player in this tie will be Erling Haaland, who has 20 goals in 14 Champions League matches.

Otherwise, Dortmund are a fairly conventional German side: great on the break and dodgy in defence.

City should progress, but they are probably too short to back.

Prediction: Manchester City to qualify

Bayern Munich vs. Paris Saint-Germain

Team to Advance Odds

  • Bayern Munich -225
  • Paris Saint-Germain +155

This is probably the pick of the quarterfinals.

It is a repeat of last year’s final, which Bayern won 1-0. But it should not be forgotten what an even game it was; in fact, PSG probably had the better chances, and had Neymar and Kylian Mbappé not had an unusually bad night in front of goal PSG would probably have won the match.

Bayern saw the game out extremely well, but they look a bit too short to progress here, with bookies having them as 4/9 favourites.

PSG’s league form has been patchy under Mauricio Pochettino, but they were extremely impressive against Barcelona, knocking them out 5-2 on aggregate.

Bayern certainly deserve favouritism, but PSG are value.

Prediction: Paris Saint-Germain to qualify

Real Madrid vs. Liverpool

Team to Advance Odds

  • Liverpool -145
  • Real Madrid +105

Real Madrid and Liverpool currently look like slightly worse versions of their Champions League winning sides from three and two years ago respectively.

Real have struggled badly in Europe since Cristiano Ronaldo’s departure, and Liverpool face an uphill battle to even qualify for next year’s competition. This is the only tie where I think bookmakers have the wrong favourite.

Liverpool are 7/10 to qualify, but Real Madrid make much more appeal at 21/20.

The 13-time champions were impressive in their second leg victory over Atalanta. Liverpool breezed past RB Leipzig, but those two wins look like a bit of a blip amid a sea of bad results since December.

Liverpool have a great record in the Champions League, but much of that has to do with the atmosphere at Anfield - both games will be played behind closed doors.

The tie will come too early for most of Liverpool’s long-term absentees and Real should be confident of progression.

Prediction: Real Madrid to qualify

FC Porto vs. Chelsea

Team to Advance Odds

  • Chelsea -275
  • FC Porto +190

Everyone wanted to draw Porto, and Chelsea have certainly ended up with the most favourable quarterfinal draw.

Porto should not be taken lightly. They deserved their win over Juventus, playing with good counter-attacking quality in the first leg and putting in a gutsy defensive effort in the second, led by veteran centre-back Pepe.

But suspensions in the first leg to Mehdi Taremi and Sergio Oliveira will seriously dent their attack.

Chelsea have only conceded twice in 14 games under new manager Thomas Tuchel.

They were extremely impressive in their 3-0 aggregate win over Atlético Madrid - a tie that was probably the hardest they could have been handed in the last 16. They had utter territorial dominance in the first leg and played some great counter-attacking football in the second.

Porto are a similar side to Atléti but just with less quality, so the chances of an upset here seem slim.

Prediction: Chelsea to qualify

Champions League Future Bets

  • Manchester City to win the Champions League at 9/4

Champions League Quarterfinal Bets

  • Real Madrid to qualify at 21/20

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