IOWA HAWKEYES VS. WISCONSIN BADGERS PICKS, PREDICTIONS, ODDS

Daniel Dobish Sports Betting Expert

6 minute read

The Iowa Hawkeyes (11-3, 1-2 Big Ten) travel to meet the Wisconsin Badgers (11-2, 2-1) at the Kohl Center in Madison, Wisc. on Thursday night for a Big Ten tilt. Tip-off is scheduled for 9:00 p.m. ET, and the game can be viewed on FOX Sports 1.

SCORE PREDICTION

Wisconsin 74, Iowa 70

BEST BETS

Wisconsin -2.5 (-110) at BetMGM

Under 146.5 (-110) at BetMGM

IOWA HAWKEYES VS. WISCONSIN BADGERS PREDICTIONS

The Hawkeyes received a very stern test at home against Maryland last time out Monday, scraping by the Terrapins 80-75 as 9.5-point favorites as the OVER connected. The good news is that the Hawkeyes turned it over just seven times, but Iowa managed to hit 12-of-19 from the free-throw line, good for just 63%, and it allowed Maryland to come in and outrebound them 36-32. However, the Hawkeyes were a solid 49% from the field, with star Keegan Murray leading the way with a 14-of-21 shooting night, racking up 35 points, eight rebounds and three blocked shots, and he also dropped in five triples. The Badgers will obviously need to account for him on every possession.

HC Greg Gard's group is flying high after upsetting Purdue in their place on Monday by a 74-69 score as 13-point underdogs as the OVER cashed. The Badgers didn't necessarily shoot lights out, hitting just 44%, or 27-of-61 from the field, while knocking down just 6-of-24, or 25%, from behind the arc. However, the Badgers also were very disciplined, they rebounded the ball well with 32 boards while taking care of the ball, committing just seven turnovers. Wisconsin also employed some good defensive pressure, as the Boilermakers hit just 41% from the floor, hitting 23-of-56. And Purdue was its own worst enemy at the stripe, hitting just 62%, or 15-of-24 from the free-throw line, while committing 12 turnovers.

IOWA HAWKEYES VS. WISCONSIN BADGERS BETTING ODDS

More Odds | Futures Odds

IOWA HAWKEYES VS. WISCONSIN BADGERS BETTING RESOURCES

• Matchup: Big 10
• Date: Thursday, January 6, 2022
• Venue: Kohl Center
• Location: Madison, Wisconsin
• TV-Time: FS1 - 9:00 p.m. ET

• Injury Report
• Wooden Award Odds
• Conference Futures Market
• Power Rankings

IOWA HAWKEYES BETTING ANALYSIS

Straight Up - SU, Against the Spread - ATS, Over-Under (O/U)

• SU: 11-3
• ATS: 9-5
• O/U: 10-3-1

Iowa's non-cover against Maryland on Monday snapped a 3-0 ATS run. The Hawkeyes find themselves in a strange spot, as they're underdogs for just the third time this season. However, that's quite all right with Iowa, as they're 2-0 ATS as an underdog, while winning one of the games straight up at Virginia on Nov. 29. In the other game, Iowa lost at Purdue on Dec. 3, but easily covering a 14.5-point number in a 77-70 loss as the UNDER cashed.

The Hawkeyes have cashed in seven of the past 10 games overall, while going 6-1 ATS in the past seven games following a straight-up win. However, when the Hawkeyes do not cover last time out, they tend to stack non-covers, going 4-9-1 ATS in the past 14 after a failing to cash last time out.

For totals, the trends are a bit contradictory. The OVER is 12-3-1 in the past 16 games overall for the Hawkeyes. However, the UNDER is 9-1 in the past 10 games on the road, while going 7-1 in the past eight against teams with an overall winning record, and 6-1 in the past seven as an underdog.

WISCONSIN BADGERS BETTING ANALYSIS

Straight Up - SU, Against the Spread - ATS, Over-Under (O/U)

• SU: 11-2
• ATS: 8-5
• O/U: 8-5

Wisconsin is back on the Kohl Center floor, and the last time it faced a Big Ten foe in Madison the Badgers were able to grab the cover. That was a 64-59 win and narrow cover as 4.5-point favorites over Indiana back on Dec. 8. The previous two home appearances were narrow wins over non-conference foes Nicholls and Illinois State. The Badgers were favored by 17 in each of the games, but won by an average of 3.5 PPG in the two outings. Is there trouble in Madison? Well, the upset at Purdue last time indicates no, absolutely not.

The cover as 13-point 'dogs at Purdue slapped the brakes on an 0-3 ATS skid, including an 18-point blowout loss at Ohio State on Dec. 11. The Badgers are 5-2 ATS in the past seven as a favorite, while going 7-3 ATS in the past 10 overall and 7-3 ATS in the past 10 against winning teams, too.

Wisconsin has hit the OVER in four of the past five in Madison, while going 5-2 in the past seven games overall. The OVER is 4-1 in the past five as a favorite, too, while the UNDER is 7-1 in the past eight games against teams with a winning overall record.

Wisconsin has cashed in four of the past five games at Kohl Center in Madison. (AP)

INSIDE THE STATS - IOWA HAWKEYES

• Record: 11-3
• VI Ranking:
• PS/G: 87.4 (2nd)
• PA/G: 70.5 (232nd)
• ORtg: 121.2 (2nd)
• DRtg: 97.8 (193rd)

INSIDE THE STATS - WISCONSIN BADGERS

• Record: 11-2
• VI Ranking:
• PS/G: 70.6 (216th)
• PA/G: 63.6 (77th)
• ORtg: 105.5 (128th)
• DRtg: 95.1 (130th)

KEY PLAYERS TO WATCH

• IOWA: Keegan Murray - F (24.5 PPG, 8.2 RPG, 2.1 BPG, 1.5 SPG)
• IOWA: Kris Murray - F (9.2 PPG, 4.7 RPG, 1.0 APG, 44.4 3P%)
• WIS: Jonathan Davis - G (22.3 PPG, 7.3 RPG, 2.5 APG, 1.5 SPG)
• WIS: Brad Davison - G (14.5 PPG, 4.1 RPG, 1.9 APG, 34.7 3P%)

IOWA HAWKEYES VS. WISCONSIN BADGERS BETTING CONCLUSION

This is going to be an interesting game. While Wisconsin has been scoring the basketball with aplomb lately, that's not their style. They're more of a slower tempo team, while Iowa will be looking to run early and often. The Hawkeyes can score with the best of them, and you know their star Murray can certainly carry them when he is hot. But he'll need help, and Wisconsin's suffocating defense can make even the best players look mortal.

I like what I saw from the Badgers, but it's often difficult for a team to bring tremendous intensity for 40 minutes in back-to-back games. The good news is that they get the Hawkeyes in Madison. If this game were in Iowa City, I'd take the Hawkeyes, and I wouldn't think twice about it. But Wisconsin is tough at home, and they seem to rise to the occasion and play to the level of its competition. In this case, they'll play well, because Iowa is a solid opponent. This is going to be an entertaining and close game, coming down to free throws in the end.

IOWA HAWKEYES VS. WISCONSIN BADGERS BETTING TRENDS

• Iowa is 7-3 ATS in the past 10 games overall.
• Wisconsin is 7-3 ATS in the past 10 games overall.
• Wisconsin is 5-2 ATS in the past seven as a favorite.
• Wisconsin is 7-3 ATS in the past 10 against winning teams.
• The UNDER is 9-1 in the past 10 road games for Iowa.
• The UNDER is 6-1 in the past seven as a 'dog for Iowa.
• The UNDER is 7-1 in the past eight vs. winning teams for Iowa.
• The OVER is 12-3-1 in the past 16 games overall for Iowa.
• The OVER is 5-2 in the past seven overall for Wisconsin.
• The OVER is 4-1 in the past five home games for Wisconsin.
• The OVER is 4-1 in the past five as a favorite for Wisconsin.
• The road team is 2-0-2 ATS in the past four meetings.

Daniel Dobish

Dan is a handicapper and sports betting expert for VegasInsider with years of experience writing for a number of top publications in the industry. More from Daniel Dobish