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2021 Wimbledon Picks and Predictions

 


June 26, 2021
by Thom Cunningham
VI Betting Expert
VegasInsider.com

The third tennis major is finally here, after missing 2020 due to COVID-19 we finally return to the England Lawn Tennis Club for Wimbledon. The turn around from clay court season to grass is typically short, but even shorter this season with only a handful of precursor tournaments.

Some notable names have already dropped out due to injury concerns, but the draw is set and the odds are in. Let's check out the 2021 Wimbledon field and go through players to consider backing before the tournament begins on Monday, June 28.

2021 Wimbledon
Picks & Predictions

With the lack of grass court precursor tournaments, the sample size for recent results is small at best. In the short amount of time grass season has been in play, a few standouts have emerged while a few favorites have fallen.

There's always past Wimbledon results to go off of, but it's difficult to relate the form for some players in terms of a two year difference. Still, there are some past results to consider such as Serena's success at the Lawn Club. Also worth noting is the country this tournament takes place in, as players such as Johanna Konta thrive in Great Britain.

There are also very talented players returning for the first time, such as Nick Kyrgios. The field for both men and women is a bit chaotic in terms of pinning down a winner. It's never a bad idea to take a few heavy favorites to win the event, especially struggling ones, while single betting the underdog they face in a hedge situation.

Tennis Major Betting Resources
2021 Wimbledon

  • Date: Monday, June 28, 2021
  • Venue: All England Lawn Tennis and Croquet Club
  • Location: London, England
  • Surface: Grass
  • TV: NBC, NBCSN, Peacock TV, Tennis Channel
  • Betting Odds

Serena Williams has reached four of the last five Wimbledon finals, winning two of those four but losing the last two. (AP)

2021 Wimbledon
Betting Odds

2021 Wimbledon Men's Contenders

  • Novak Djokovic 5/6
  • Daniil Medvedev 7/1
  • Stefanos Tsitsipas 8/1
  • Roger Federer 10/1
  • Matteo Berrettini 11/1
  • Alexander Zverev 16/1
  • More Players
  • (Odds Subject to Change)

2021 Wimbledon Women's Contenders

  • Serena Williams 6/1
  • Ashleigh Barty 13/2
  • Aryna Sabalenka 10/1
  • Petra Kvitova 14/1
  • Garbine Muguruza 14/1
  • Iga Swiatek 14/1
  • More Players
  • (Odds Subject to Change)

Contenders to Back
2021 Wimbledon

Novak Djokovic (5/6) & Daniil Medvedev (6/1)

It's unwise to consider any player to win a major not named Roger Federer, Rafael Nadal and Novak Djokovic. Outside of Andy Murray, these are the only three men to win Wimbledon over the last 17 years. Almost two decades later the men's draw is waiting for Father Time to finally win.

Considering Djokovic has already won two majors this season, it's hard not to have a stake on him to win a third. Even at 5/6, his odds are almost a sure lock to win, but Father Time will catch up at some point. Medvedev at 6/1 is a fine favorite to take, but his odds may actually become more valuable if he faces Federer in the bottom half of the bracket.

It's not worth the risk to wait, as Federer is no lock to reach the fourth round or quarterfinals. Grab the two best players in the tournament, as it's highly unlikely Djokovic doesn't win.

Serena Williams (6/1) & Petra Kvitova (14/1)

In recent tournaments, Serena has been a favorite to fade. This tournament she is a take, easily the most successful Wimbledon player in the field - which includes recent results. Serena has reached the Wimbledon final in four of her last five attempts, including two victories. It's unwise to enter this event without having anything on one of the sport's GOATs.

Her form in Paris was also impressive, adding conviction to winning a major this season rather than losing it. Her draw is quite simple if she can get past the Angelique Kerber/Sara Tormo bracket. Above Serena lies Coco Gauff, Elina Svitolina, Belinda Bencic and Bianca Andreescu. Outside of Bencic, all those players named have struggled mightily on grass this season (again, short sample size).

Camila Giorgi is capable of a run, as shown in her most recent grass event but did withdraw. All in all, Serena has a pretty easy quarter to get through and historic success here. Don't overthink it and make sure you have something on her for Monday. Petra Kvitova is also in terrific form, and plays almost unbeatable tennis on a grass surface. She has lost the first set a lot however, so be mindful of her singles match odds in the set market if worried (and take the underdog).

She has a few difficult Americans in her way, but clear sailing if she can get past Sloane Stephens early and possibly Jessica Pegula down the road.

Mid-Range Value
2021 Wimbledon

Matteo Berrettini (11/1) & Alex Zverev (12/1)

Alexander Zverev continues to knock on the front door of a majors victory, but it seems likely another year or so (or until the big three retire). His adversary Tsitsipas was able to reach the French Open final over him, so the chip on Zverev's shoulder is still very strong in big events.

Matteo Berrettini is a terrific sleeper to reach a deep round in this event, and could even reach the finals if the cards fall his way. Barring a miraculous Kei Nishikori run, he should be able to beat John Isner or Casper Ruud to reach the quarterfinal round. From there who knows, but the bottom half of the Wimbledon bracket is the more uncertain of the two.

He could potentially face Zverev, but if he gets into the semifinal he could then face the leftover of a gauntlet. Below Berrettini and Zverev's bracket are Federer, Cam Norrie, Pablo Carreno Busta, Sam Querrey, Marin Cilic and Daniil Medvedev. The more difficult road to the semifinal in the bottom bracket is the fourth quarter as opposed to the third.

Berrettini just won a grass court tournament, and reached the quarterfinal round of Roland Garros before losing to eventual champion Djokovic.

Anett Kontaveit (33/1) & Victoria Azarenka (40/1)

Victoria Azarenka is a veteran of the sport and never a bad back especially at the kind odds given. She has seen some recent success on the grass surface, and hasn't had to push her body too hard recently - so stamina shouldn't be a huge concern. She has a somewhat kind bracket too, until she runs into our other best mid-range bet in Anett Kontaveit.

It seems very likely the winner of this hypothetical match will go far in this tournament, clearly the two best players in their bottom quarter. The first quarter is strong on the women's side, but with Ashleigh Barty's injury woes its wise to take advantage of skilled players in Barty's quarter with kind odds.

Both these players fit that bill, as Kontaveit has been on a solid stretch in recent matches as well. Her 6-3, 6-3 win over Andreescu was impressive but her final match on Saturday against Jelena Ostapenko will dictate whether her grass surface run is realistic at the Lawn Club on Monday.

Long Shot Picks
2021 Wimbledon

Jannik Sinner (80/1) & Cam Norrie (100/1)

Cam Norrie was able to take Berrettini to the limit in their grass court final match, and considering the 2021 form Norrie has been in it's wise to sprinkle some change on his very kind 100/1 odds. Oddsmakers are probably gearing those odds towards the fact he might face Federer early in the tournament - a match Norrie can absolutely win.

Perhaps oddsmakers aren't keen on him escaping a first round upset against Lucas Pouille either. Regardless 100/1 is too good to pass for the season Norrie has had. Jannik Sinner is still a few years out of a major victory, but he has won multiple ATP tournaments already and is still very young.

He put on a great performance at Roland Garros but ran into Nadal early. Sinner's road is a bit difficult, possibly facing Andrey Rublev and Diego Schwartzman. However, Sinner can win those matches and seems poised enough to make a deep run with a young body that should have better stamina than most other players.

Johanna Konta (66/1) & Katerina Siniakova (200/1)

Konta's success at Wimbledon is well-documented, although she is very inconsistent. To be frank, her 66/1 odds should be closer to 75/1 to even 100/1. She has seen early exits here, but overall her success in her home country is something oddsmakers are taking into account. She also played very well during her run in Birmingham, a place she is very cozy in as the Lawn Club is no different.

Siniakova's odds are the opposite, as she should see something closer to 50/1. Take advantage of her 200/1 odds, especially if she can upset Konta early. Barty will run into these two as well, but Barty has withdrew two times over her last three matches. Also, Siniakova is on a current run in Germany that includes wins over Jessica Pegula and Sara Sorribes Tormo and has won nine of her last 11 matches.

Prop Picks
2021 Wimbledon

Kvitova Reaches Round 4 (6/4)

As stated earlier, the concern here are the pair of possible Americans Kvitova might have to face. However, her loss to Kerber during this past week's grass tournament should add some fire to her game this coming week. Again, Kvitova has been losing the first set often - so hedging the underdog in that market is always an option.

The second round isn't too much a concern for Kvitova as much as the first and third rounds are. She should reach the fourth round regardless who she has to face, head and heels better than any of the other players in that group of the field. If her Wimbledon form mirrors anything close to her form in Germany.

2021 Wimbledon Favorites to Fade

Stefanos Tsitsipas (8/1)

Despite a run at Roland Garros, bettors might want to fade the Greek sensation. Two recent reasons to consider fading Sitty are his stamina and his 2021 grass results. The sample size is small, but he has lost three of his last five grass matches. He has also failed to go past the Round of 16 in any grass tournament in his career. All this added with his deep run at Roland Garros, its tough to back him running through the finish line in London.

Ashleigh Barty (13/2)

Although Barty is a threat to win any major event, she is hurt. She has quit two of her last three matches overall, not a great sign to make a deep run in this difficult event. Stay clear of Barty, as her injury can flare up at any moment of the tournament. If the event was shorter, such as a 250 series event or an entry field of 32 players, then maybe consider. There's too many players and rounds to consider her short odds for the lack of conviction in her injury status entering.

2021 Wimbledon Notable Withdrawals

  • Naomi Osaka
  • Rafael Nadal
  • Dominic Thiem
  • Milos Raonic
  • Simona Halep

  
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