Last Updated Aug 30, 2021, 14:04 PM
UFC on FOX 29 Best Bets
The Octagon lands in Glendale on Saturday night for UFC on FOX 29. The Ultimate Fighting Championship is bringing a 14-fight card, with the first five scraps airing on UFC FightPass.
The prelims on FOX start at 6:00 p.m. Eastern, featuring four fights. Then the main card gets going at 8:00 p.m. Eastern.
The headliner is a key lightweight tussle between fifth-ranked Dustin ‘Diamond’ Poirier and sixth-ranked Justin ‘The Highlight’ Gaethje. As of Friday night, most books had Poirier (22-5-1 MMA, 14-4-1 UFC) installed as a -130 favorite with Gaethje at +110 on the comeback. The total is 1.5 rounds (‘over’ -160, ‘under’ +140).
Since losing by first-round knockout to Conor McGregor at UFC 178 on Sept. 27 of 2014, Poirier has moved up to the lightweight division and compiled a 6-1-1 record. The Lafayette, LA., product has been training with American Top Team in South Florida since 2012.
Poirier’s only defeat at 155 pounds came in a first-round KO loss to Michael Johnson after he had ripped off four straight wins – three by first-round finishes – to start his tenure at lightweight. His most notable career victories have come over former lightweight champ Anthony ‘Showtime’ Pettis (third-round TKO), Jim Miller, Bobby Green, Joseph Duffy, Yancy Medeiros and current featherweight kingpin Max Holloway (by first-round submission).
Gaethje (18-1 MMA, 1-1 UFC), a 29-year-old from Arizona who will be fighting at home, is off the first loss of his distinguished career. His Octagon debut came on July 7 of 2017 when Gaethje and Johnson waged the Fight of the Year in Las Vegas. Gaethje garnered Performance of the Night honors when he scored a KO with only 12 seconds left in the second round.
Gaethje was in another back-and-forth firefight his last time out at UFC 218 in Detroit. With 61 seconds left in the third and final round, ‘The Highlight’ tasted defeat for the first time in his MMA career when he was knocked out by Eddie Alvarez by a huge knee and subsequent punches.
In the co-main event, former interim welterweight champ Carlos ‘The Natural Born Killer’ Condit heads to the Octagon knowing he must get his hand raised if he ever wants to make another push toward a belt. Condit, who is still only 33 years of age but has been through wars galore during his storied career, finds himself as a huge underdog to Alex ‘Cowboy’ Oliveira, who accepted the fight on just two weeks of notice when Matt Brown tore his ACL and had to pull out.
Oliveira was a -200 ‘chalk’ at most spots Friday night. Condit was the +185 underdog, while the total was 2.5 rounds (‘over’ -175, ‘under’ +155).
Let’s get to my picks….
UFC on FOX 29 Best Bets
1-Poirier to beat Gaethje as a -120 favorite ([...]) for three units.
2-One Unit on Poirier-Gaethje UNDER 1.5 rounds for a +145 payout ([...]).
3-One-half unit on Condit-Oliveira UNDER 2.5 rounds for a +160 return ([...]).
4-Two Units on Israel Adesanya to beat Marvin Vettori inside the distance for a +115 return.
5-One Unit on Tim ‘The Barbarian’ Boetsch at +215 odds to beat Antonio Carlos Junior. Boetsch is 3-1 in his past four fight, cashing underdog tickets in wins over Johny Hendricks (+150), Rafael Natal (+130) and Josh Samman (+210).
6-One-half unit on Boetsch-Junior Under 1.5 rounds for a +130 payout (SportsInt.).
7-Ricky Rainey at +160 odds for one-half unit to defeat Muslim Salikhov.
Follow Brian Edwards' sports gambling opinions on Twitter at @vegasbedwards.