Last Updated Jun 14, 2022, 11:49 AM

UFC 256 Figueiredo vs Moreno Picks, Predictions

UFC 256 Trends | UFC 256 Odds

  • Date: Saturday, Dec 12, 2020
  • Venue: UFC Apex
  • Location: Las Vegas, Nevada
  • Expected Fights: 10
  • Championship Bouts: 1
  • TV/Time: ESPN, ESPN+, ESPN PPV 6:00 p.m. ET

UFC 256
Main Card Picks

Flyweight Championship
Deiveson Figueiredo vs. Brandon Moreno

Deiveson Figueriedo is poised to make the shortest turnaround by a champion in UFC history. After submitting Alex Perez in less than two minutes in the UFC 255 headliner on Nov. 21, Figueriedo will defend his flyweight title against Brandon Moreno on Saturday in the UFC 256 main event.

As of Friday afternoon, most books had Figueriedo (20-1 MMA, 9-1 UFC) installed as a -330 favorite with a total of 2.5 rounds (‘under’ -120, ‘over’ +100). The odds for Figueriedo to win inside the distance were -140.


The 32-year-old Brazilian is a black belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu. He has nine knockout wins and eight submission victories on his resume. Figueriedo has won five consecutive fights since taking his lone career defeat by unanimous decision against Jussier Formiga on March 23 of 2019. He’s finished three of his last four opponents in the first round.

Figueriedo is defending his belt for the second time. He won the strap with a first-round submission (rear-naked choke) of Joseph Benavidez on July 19.

Moreno (18-5-1 MMA, 7-2-1 UFC) is a 27-year-old Mexican fighter who is 4-0-1 in his last five scraps. He has 10 career wins by submission, three via knockout and five by decision. Moreno has never been finished.

Moreno was on the same Nov. 21 card as Figueriedo, garnering a first-round KO victory over Brandon Royval with one second remaining in the opening frame.

Despite the quick turnaround, both fighters hit their marks at Friday morning weigh-ins.

UFC 256 Predictions
Figueiredo vs. Moreno

There’s a first time for everything. In this instance, I’m referencing Moreno getting finished. Give me two units on Figueriedo to win inside the distance at the -140 price. Let’s also get one unit on ‘under’ 2.5 at a -120 price.

Flyweight Championship
Tony Ferguson vs. Charles Oliveira

In the co-main event slot, third-ranked lightweight Tony ‘El Cucuy’ Ferguson will face seventh-ranked Charles ‘Do Bronx’ Oliveira. As of late Friday afternoon, most shops had Ferguson listed as a -165 favorite with Oliveira at +145 on the comeback. The total was 2.5 rounds (‘under’ -160, ‘over’ +140).

Ferguson (25-4 MMA, 15-2 UFC) tasted defeat for the first time in eight years and saw his 12-fight winning streak snapped in a fifth-round KO loss to Justin Gaethje on May 9 at UFC 249 in Jacksonville. The last time that the 36-year-old Ferguson was in bounce-back mode off a UD loss to Michael Johnson, he finished Mike Rio with a D’Arce choke in less than two minutes.

Oliveira (MMA, UFC) has the most submission wins in UFC history (14), the most Performance of the Night bonuses (10) in UFC history and the highest finishes-per-win-percentage in UFC history (93.75%). The 31-year-old Brazilian has won seven consecutive fights, winning each one by finish with only one making the third round.

Oliveira has bagged six POTN bonuses during his seven-fight winning streak. He’s off a third-round submission win over Kevin Lee at UFC Brasilia on March 14.

UFC 256 Predictions
Ferguson vs. Oliveira

This is a really tough call here. Oliveira has a sick submission game, but Ferguson has only been submitted once in his career and that was more than 11 years ago. How will Ferguson respond after taking the worst (and only) beating of his career vs. Gaethje? Will Ferguson’s 2.5-inch reach advantage be a factor when the fight is standing? I’ll pass on this one.

UFC 256
Bonus Picks

-- I like Kevin Holland to beat Ronaldo ‘Jacare’ Souza as an even-money underdog in a middleweight showdown on the main card.

Let’s go with three units on Holland, who is 4-0 with three finishes since May 16. The 28-year-old Holland is 20-5 overall and 8-2 in the UFC. The 6-foot-3 Holland’s 81-inch reach gives him an enormous nine-inch reach advantage. The 41-year-old Souza has lost back-to-back fights and is 2-4 in his last six Octagon appearances.

-- Let’s go with one-half unit on Cub Swanson as a +140 underdog to defeat Daniel Pineda , who is 27-13-0-2 overall and 3-2 in the UFC.

Swanson ended his four-fight losing streak with a UD victory over Kron Gracie his last time out. Swanson is 26-11 overall and 11-7 in the UFC. He owns notable scalps over the likes of Doo Ho Choi, Jeremy Stephens, Dennis Siver, Dustin Poirier and Oliveira.

UFC 256 Fight Card - Opening Odds

Listed below are the "Opening Odds" per the Las Vegas Westgate SuperBook.

You can follow the line movements up until each bout in our UFC Betting Odds.

Main Card (10:00 p.m. ET)

  • Flyweight: Deiveson Figueiredo (-280) vs. Brandon Moreno (+240)
  • Lightweight: Tony Ferguson (-155) vs. Charles Oliveira (+135)
  • Lightweight: Renato Moicano (+110) vs. Rafael Fiziev (-130)
  • Middleweight: Kevin Holland (-135) vs. Ronaldo Souza (+115)
  • Heavyweight: Junior dos Santos (+290) vs. Ciryl Gane (-350)

Prelims (8:00 p.m. ET)

  • Featherweight: Cub Swanson (+110) vs. Daniel Pineda (-130)
  • Women's Strawweight: Mackenzie Dern (+170) vs. Virna Jandiroba (+150)
  • Featherweight: Gavin Tucker (-105) vs. Billy Quarantillo (-115)
  • Women's Strawweight: Tecia Torres (-500) vs. Sam Hughes (+400)

Early Prelims (7:00 p.m. ET)

  • Featherweight: Chase Hooper (-280) vs. Peter Barrett (+240)

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