UFC 258 Usman vs Burns Betting Odds

• February 4, 2021
• By Adam Lykkesteen
• Vegasinsider.com

The second UFC pay-per-view of the year is upon us, when the world’s biggest MMA promotion returns to the UFC Apex facility in Las Vegas, Nevada on February 13th, 2021.

UFC 258 is headlined by former teammates turned rivals, Kamaru Usman and Gilbert Burns, who will fight for the welterweight title in the main event.

We are going to take a closer look at the betting lines for the UFC 258 card, while previewing how the lines have moved since opening.

UFC 258: Usman vs. Burns Odds & Analysis

• Date: Saturday, Feb. 13, 2021
• TV-Time: ESPN/ESPN+, 7:00 p.m. ET
• Venue: UFC Apex
• Location: Las Vegas, Nevada, United States

Unbeaten UFC welterweight champion Kamaru Usman defends his title against former teammate Gilbert Burns in the main event of UFC 258. Since joining the UFC, Usman has amassed a 12-0 record under the UFC mantle, with notable wins over Tyron Woodley, Colby Covington, and Jorge Masvidal.

Challenging for the title will be Gilbert ‘Durinho’ Burns. The challenger had a strong 2020 where he successfully extended his win streak to 6 beating renowned UFC veteran Demian Maia and former UFC champion Tyron Woodley from post to pillar in his last fight (May 30th, 2020).

Up until 2019, Burns fought and competed in the UFC lightweight division. However, after careful consideration, he made the jump up to welterweight and has never looked back. Kamaru Burns is currently unbeaten at 170 lbs at 4-0. Can he stop Kamaru Usman?

UFC 258: Usman vs. Burns Odds Comparison

Usman vs. Burns - Money Line Odds (2/13/21)

Fighters Kamaru Usman -275 -286 -278 -280 Gilbert Burns +225 +230 +220 +215

UFC 258: Usman vs. Burns Betting Odds

When this line was brought out in late 2020, Usman was the favorite at around -222.

However sharp bettors were quick to bet Usman up to around -278.

As a result, the value on Burns has been steadily increasing as we approach the main event.

UFC 258: Usman vs. Burns Total Rounds

While most betting shops are offering 1.5 Rounds for this heavyweight clash, BetMGM is providing four different options with adjusted money for the five-round fight.

• Over 1.5 (-450) Under 1.5 (+340)
• Over 2.5 (-275) Under 2.5 (+210)
• Over 3.5 (-200) Under 2.5 (+165)
• Over 4.5 (-150) Under 4.5 (+125)

UFC 258: Usman vs. Burns Betting Props

Odds Subject to Change - per BetMGM

WILL THE FIGHT GO THE DISTANCE?

• Yes -140
• No +115

METHOD OF VICTORY (5-WAY)

• Gilbert Burns by KO/TKO, DQ or Submission +360
• Gilbert Burns by Decision +650
• Tie/Technical Tie +5000
• Kamaru Usman by KO/TKO, DQ or Submission +200
• Kamaru Usman by Decision +135

ROUND BETTING

• Gilbert Burns in round 1 +900
• Gilbert Burns in round 2 +1200
• Gilbert Burns in round 3 +2000
• Gilbert Burns in round 4 +3000
• Gilbert Burns in round 5 +3000
• Gilbert Burns On points +650

• Kamaru Usman in round 1 +600
• Kamaru Usman in round 2 +800
• Kamaru Usman in round 3 +1300
• Kamaru Usman in round 4 +1800
• Kamaru Usman in round 5 +2500
• Kamaru Usman On points +135

HOW WILL THE FIGHT FINISH?

• KO/TKO/DQ +160
• Submission +600
• Decision -140

ROUND AND METHOD OF VICTORY

• G. Burns by KO/TKO/DQ in Round 1 +1600
• G. Burns by Submission in Round 1 +1600
• G. Burns by KO/TKO/DQ in Round 2 +2200
• G. Burns by Submission in Round 2 +2200
• G. Burns by KO/TKO/DQ in Round 3 +3300
• G. Burns by Submission in Round 3 +3300
• G. Burns by KO/TKO/DQ in Round 4 +5000
• G. Burns by Submission in Round 4 +5000
• G. Burns by KO/TKO/DQ in Round 5 +8000
• G. Burns by Submission in Round 5 +8000

• K. Usman by KO/TKO/DQ in Round 1 +700
• K. Usman by Submission in Round 1 +3300
• K. Usman by KO/TKO/DQ in Round 2 +900
• K. Usman by Submission in Round 2 +4000
• K. Usman by KO/TKO/DQ in Round 3 +1400
• K. Usman by Submission in Round 3 +5000
• K. Usman by KO/TKO/DQ in Round 4 +2000
• K. Usman by Submission in Round 4 +8000
• K. Usman by KO/TKO/DQ in Round 5 +2800
• K. Usman by Submission in Round 5 +10000

UFC 258: Usman vs. Burns Prop Betting

Looking at the prop betting lines for this fight, I think there are some interesting plays that may hold some value.

First of all, we know from history that in title fights, if the challenger wins, it is usually inside the distance. At the same time, the champion tends to get it done on the scorecards more often than not. In 2020 champions had an unusually dominant year. Not a single titleholder lost their belt in 14 title bouts. 9 of those 14 times, the champion retained his/her belt going the distance (including one draw). The betting line for Usman by decision currently sits at +135, while the betting line for Burns to win via finish sits at +360 on BetMGM.

If you foresee a champion-change this weekend, you could take it a step further, and go with a first-round KO for the challenger. It might sound like a long-shot at first, but knowing that the vast majority of finishes happen in the first round, could change your mind. The betting line for Gilbert Burns to win in round 1 is +900 on BetMGM. In fact, history shows that the chance of a finish happening decreases the longer the fight continues, perhaps why we rarely see finishes in the championship rounds.

UFC 258: Usman vs. Burns Betting Analysis

Kamaru Usman is undoubtedly the rightful favorite here. 12-0 in the UFC, along with 2 title defenses as the welterweight champion. Gilbert Burns does pose a bit of an interesting challenge to the champion's skill set, however, as he is a very sharp submission artist, unlike anyone Usman has ever faced before, except for Demian Maia.

Looking at betting value for this fight, I think it's all on the champion. Despite being unbeaten in the world's top MMA promotion, Usman has been outshined as of late by unbeaten fighters such as Israel Adesanya and Khabib Nurmagomedov, yet Usman's fighting abilities can't be overstated. He is an extremely powerful wrestler and has good power in his hands too.

Personally, I think -275 is the best value we are going to be able to get on Usman for a long time, and I think that Burns' renowned 6-fight win streak is adding value to champion in this title bout. 5-inch reach advantage and 2-inch height advantage tells me that Usman will control the distance on the feet, like he so often does. In his bout against Colby Covington, we saw that Usman is comfortable fighting on the feet, so I think he'll be able to run through Burns if the fight takes place there.

UFC 258: Usman vs. Burns Prediction

This fight is interesting for a number of reasons, one of them being the fact that we get to see how dominant Usman really is. If he passes the test here with flying colors, there might not be a welterweight out there that can defeat him. However, given the circumstances of this matchup and the history, Burns and Usman have, 'Durinho' could turn out to be the toughest test of Usman's career, due to his grappling abilities.

That being said, I would not be shocked if we end up seeing another dominant Usman performance on Saturday night. While Gilbert Burns is a tremendous competitor, his career just doesn't spell championship level to me when looking back at it. With three losses in the UFC, including one via KO against Dan Hooker, Burns isn't exactly what I'd call a consistent fighter. Sure, he's on a 6-fight win streak, but the opponents he's faced simply haven't been top-contender level.

With Usman's aforementioned reach and height advantages, I simply see the champion controlling the range on the feet, and dictating where the fight takes place. For me, it seems that Burns' only key to victory is a submission, but Usman could easily keep this fight on the feet and outstrike the Brazilian all night long if he so chooses to.

Usman is just on a different level than these guys, and I think he will showcase that this Saturday when he fights his former teammate in the main event of UFC 258. I predict Usman to beat Burns. It'll most likely be on points, but a finish isn't outside the realm of possibility either.

UFC 258: Usman vs. Burns Fight Card

Along with the main event, the UFC has officially announced 11 other bouts but the card is expected to have up to 12 fights on the UFC 258 event from Las Vegas, Nevada.

Listed below are the "opening odds" on those fights per the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook.

Check out these numbers, then the updated odds to see where the money is going.

Women's Flyweight: Maycee Barber (+100) vs. Alexa Grasso (-120)

Middleweight: Kelvin Gastelum (-225) vs. Ian Heinisch (+190)

Middleweight: Maki Pitolo (+145) vs. Julian Marquez (-175)

Lightweight: Bobby Green (-275) vs. Jim Miller (+210)

Middleweight: Rodolfo Vieira (-375) vs. Anthony Hernandez (+300)

Middleweight: Belal Muhammad (-400) vs. Dhiego Lima (+320)

Welterweight: Polyana Viana (+130) vs. Mallory Martin (-155)

Women's Strawweight: Andre Ewell (+130) vs. Chris Gutiérrez (-155)

Catchweight (140 lb): Ricky Simon (-250) vs. Brian Kelleher (+200)

Featherweight: Gabriel Green (-135) vs. Phil Rowe (+110)

Welterweight: Gillian Robertson (+115) vs. Miranda Maverick (-140)

Odds & Card Subject to Change - Updated 2.11.21