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UFC 263: Adesanya vs Vettori 2 Picks, Predictions

 

June 8, 2021
by Adam Lykkesteen
UFC Expert
VegasInsider.com


UFC 263 Odds Analysis

UFC 263: Adesanya vs. Vettori 2 Predictions

UFC 263 Betting Resources

UFC 263 Main Card Best Bets

The UFC 263 card is stacked with betting opportunites.

You may find value in the two champions competing in the main -and co-main events since champions tend to get their hand raised 7 out of 10 times.

The first best bet for me would be the Adesanya by decision prop since that's how the champ won the first fight against Marvin Vettori.

Furthermore, I think we've got some great betting value on Nate Diaz this weekend, as most bookies have him at around odds +400.

Odds +400 is way too good an opportunity to pass, since Diaz is the more experienced fighter with a wider strike differential, compared to Leon Edwards.

Let's pick Nate Diaz H2H (+400) for our second best bet.

Additional bouts with some value include Hakeem Dawodu vs. Mosvar Evloev and Chase Hooper vs. Steven Peterson.

Hooper is an extremely young guy who has the name recognition to attract some casual money. I don't think his skills are sufficient to give him a winning UFC record, however, and for that reason, I think fading him is valuable.

Dawodu is another guy who is a valuable underdog, currently priced around +200. He faces unbeaten Movsar Evloev this Saturday.

Hakeem has had more fights and wins for the UFC, and Evloev had a very tough last fight against an over-the-hill Nik Lentz.

Evloev's unbeaten record is yet again affecting his betting line, and I think we can take advantage of that.

Let's take Hakeem Dawodu H2H (+200) for our third best bet.


UFC 263 Main Card PREDICTIONS

Israel Adesanya vs. Marvin Vettori 2

Adesanya vs. Vettori 2 goes down this Saturday, in the main event of UFC 263.

Israel comes into this fight off his first career loss against Light Heavyweight champion Jan Blachowicz. Marvin Vettori is riding on a 5-fight win streak.

Adesanya has his usual reach advantage, this time of 6-inches while being significantly taller than the Italian, which is big.

I think the champion keeps this fight on the feet and picks Vettori apart with his long strikes and leg kicks. Vettori might get him down once or twice, but he needs a lot of control time to win since he doesn't tend to do that much damage on the feet.

Vettori has also never knocked anybody out in his UFC career, in spite of his impressive physique, which is worrisome against a seasoned striker like Adesanya.

Prediction: Israel Adesanya def. Marvin Vettori by decision.

Deiveson Figueiredo vs. Brandon Moreno 2

Deiveson Figueiredo is the defending UFC Flyweight champion, with two title defenses. Brandon Moreno is the no. 1 ranked Flyweight.

The flyweight champion faces Brandon Moreno once more in the co-main event of UFC 263. While the first fight ended in a draw, both fighters have made it clear that they plan to go out and give their all to get their hand raised this time.

Deiveson Figueiredo is a powerhouse for the division, with incredible finishing ability anywhere the fight can go. Moreno is more of a technical striker, with an unreal chin.

Personally, I believe Figueiredo won the first fight in spite of the point deduction, which means that he should have won comfortably in either scenario, if you ask me.

Moreno was mostly eating big shots and getting desperate takedowns to survive the onslaught of Figueiredo. His biggest moment came in the fourth round, where he hurt the champion. Other than that, Figueiredo dictated the dance.

I think Deiveson puts a stamp on it this time around. Moreno has heart and determination, but Figueiredo just controlled the action up until the illegal groin strike, which took some wind out of his sails, motivation-wise.

As stated earlier, Moreno is extremely tough. Let’s also not forget that this is the flyweigt division, where fights tend to go the distance more often than not.

Prediction: Deiveson Figueiredo def. Brandon Moreno by decision.

LEON EDWARDS VS. NATE DIAZ

Leon ‘Rocky’ Edwards finally gets his big money fight this Saturday against UFC superstar Nate Diaz. Edwards is ranked no. 3 in the UFC Welterweight division. Diaz is currently unranked.

Leon is on an 8-fight win streak coming into this fight, while Diaz lost his last outing to Jorge Masvidal.

This fight is great for Leon Edwards, because he finally gets to go against a big name fighter, and while people think it's going to be a cakewalk for ‘Rocky’ this Saturday, I think we might get a closer fight than most will expect.

Diaz is incredibly game, and has immense pressure inside the octagon. He is also good in the clinch, and his grappling game is dangerous to say the least.

Standing, his boxing has held up against the likes of Masvidal and Conor McGregor, so its fair to say Diaz is quite a well-rounded fighter.

Edwards has struggled with the likes of Donald Cerrone before, and actually dropped two rounds in that fight to ‘Cowboy’. However, styles make fights and every fight between two men will always be different.

My point is that Edwards is being built up as this unbeatable technical mastermind, when in reality he’s just a great fighter.

Edwards will probably run away with this one, but I want to say that I think it will be far closer than everyone thinks.

Diaz has issues with his scar tissue, but this fight will probably end up on the ground, allowing both fighters to make it to the final buzzer.

Prediction: Leon Edwards def. Nate Diaz by decision.

BELAL MUHAMMAD VS. DEMIAN MAIA

Belal Muhammad is ranked no. 12 in the UFC Welterweight division, whereas Maia is ranked no. 9. Maia lost his last fight by KO to Gilbert Burns, and Muhammad suffered an eye poke in his last outing against Leon Edwards, resulting in the fight being scored a no-contest.

When looking at this matchup, it's impossible to overlook the huge gap in age between these two. At 32-years of age, Belal is more than a decade younger than the 43-year old veteran Demian Maia.

Maia is a legend of MMA, and perhaps a future hall of famer, but he is a one-trick pony against a well-rounded fighter like Muhammad.

To make matters worse, Muhammad has never been submitted in his MMA career, which means Maia will have to be the first to do what twenty two people haven’t done.

Either way, Maia’s chances are slim here.

Belal also lands significantly more shots on the feet, and is just light years ahead of Maia from a distance.

I would be very surprised if Belal doesn’t win this inside the distance, against the old and withered Maia.

Prediction: Belal Muhammad def. Demian Maia inside the distance.

JAMAHAL HILL VS. PAUL CRAIG

Light heavyweights take the stage to kick off the UFC 263 main card.

Jamahal Hill is ranked no. 15 in the UFC Light Heavyweight division, while Craig is ranked just above his opponent, at no. 14.

Jamahal Hill is currently unbeaten as a pro, at 8-0, (2-0 in the UFC with one no-contest), while his opponent, Paul Craig, is coming into this fight on two finishes.

These fights are always great from a fan’s point of view, because Hill’s stock won't go through the floorboards if he loses, due to his age, and Craig’s career will skyrocket if he wins. It’s a great opportunity for both men.

That said, Hill has the attributes of someone Craig is likely to lose to, if you ask me.

Craig has shown inability to deal with early pressure, and usually folds under those circumstances (3 of his 4 losses have come by KO in round 1).

Hill, on the other hand, is very tall with long arms, and has that explosive power to put Craig in danger right from the get-go.

It is, however, tough to know exactly how good Hill is given that he is so inexperienced in the cage, but I think his power on the feet is going to be enough to carry him across the finish line. He won't do it without being put in a few bad positions, though.

Prediction: Jamahal Hill def. Paul Craig via round 1 knockout.

UFC 263 Betting Odds

Along with the main event, there are 13 other expected bouts for Saturday's card in the desert.

Listed below are all of the fights and the latest odds per BetMGM.

UFC 263 Main Card

  • Flyweight Championship - Deiveson Figueiredo (-250) vs. Brandon Moreno (+200)
  • Welterweight Bout - Leon Edwards (-450) vs. Nate Diaz (+340)
  • Welterweight Bout - Demian Maia (+200) vs. Belal Muhammad (-250)
  • Light Heavyweight Bout - Paul Craig (+240) vs. Jamahal Hill (-300)

UFC 263 Preliminary Card

  • Lightweight Bout - Drew Dober (-140) vs. Brad Riddell (+115)
  • Light Heavyweight Bout - Eryk Anders (-145) vs. Darren Stewart (+120)
  • Women's Flyweight Bout - Lauren Murphy (+115) vs. Joanne Calderwood (-140)
  • Featherweight Bout - Movsar Evloev (-250) vs. Hakeem Dawodu (+200)

UFC 263 Early Preliminary Card

  • Women's Bantamweight Bout - Pannie Kianzad (-225) vs. Alexis Davis (+180)
  • Lightweight Bout - Frank Camacho (+165) vs. Matt Frevola (-200)
  • Featherweight Bout - Chase Hooper (+115) vs. Steven Peterson (-140)
  • Lightweight Bout - Fares Ziam (-115) vs. Luigi Vendramini (-105)
  • Heavyweight Bout - Carlos Felipe (-200) vs. Jake Collier (+165)

Bouts & Odds Subject to Change

  
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