UFC Fight Night Garbrandt vs. Font Predictions

VegasInsider Staff Sports Betting Expert

4 minute read

May. 21, 2021

by Adam Lykkesteen
UFC Expert
VegasInsider.com

Former UFC Bantamweight champion Cody Garbrandt takes on surging contender Rob Font in the main event of UFC Vegas 27, this weekend.

Rob Font comes into this fight on a 3-fight win streak, most recently scoring a performance-of-the-night finish over former title contender Marlon Moraes.

On the other side we have Cody Garbrandt, who is looking to chain a win streak together after going on a 3-fight skid from 2017 to 2019.

Along with the main card, UFC Vegas 27 has a few other intriguing matchups lined up, including a Women’s Strawweight bout between Yan Xiaonan (6-0 in the UFC) and former champion Carla Esparza, as well as a MIddleweight bout between ranked contender Jack Hermansson and Edmen Shahbazyan.

Let us go over the fights and pinpoint the best betting opportunities for the card.

UFC VEGAS 27 MAIN EVENT BEST BETS

CODY GARBRANDT VS. ROB FONT

This is another super fun fight in one of the UFC’s most stacked divisions at the moment.

A win for either fighter most likely means a shot at the number one contender spot, against the winner of Sandhagen vs. Dillashaw.

CRUNCHING THE NUMBERS

Both fighters are predominantly strikers, which means that the 6-inch reach advantage for Rob Font is going to be very significant here. Just going by statistics alone, fighters with a 6-inch reach advantage have won around 62% of the time in the last few years.

Then you filter out the fights where both guys have less than 5 UFC fights, and you get a win rate of 65%. Now throw in the wider strike differential on the side of the guy who already has the reach advantage, and you get a chance of winning of 70%.

Looking into the Garbrandt side, he’s a guy who is in the post-title era of his career.

Historically, that era usually entails more losses than wins.

At the current price of -110, I think the value is all over Font.

The KO prop for Font could hold value as well, but it’s quite tough to remain profitable in the long run by picking the specific method of victories. Therefore, I think the straight pick is better.

Rob Font has won three straight fights including six of his last eight fights, five of which ended before the final bell. (AP)

UFC VEGAS 27 MAIN EVENT BEST BET: Rob Font def. Cody Garbrandt.

UFC VEGAS 27 Co-MAIN EVENT BEST BETS

YAN XIAONAN VS. CARLA ESPARZA

This happens to be one of those cards where there are good betting spots in the main event fights.

The co-main event takes place in the Women’s Strawweight division between Yan Xiaonan and Carla Esparza.

A win for either fighter means a step closer to the title. For Xiaonan a title shot could be next if she wins in dominant fashion.

CRUNCHING THE NUMBERS

Before we get into the hard statistics, I think it's worth noting that Xiaonan has passed the test that Esparza brings multiple times in her UFC career. Esparza is a grappler that goes for control time to win decisions, with a negative strike differential on the feet. This description also befalls Claudia Gadelha and Kailin Curran, both of whom Xiaonan beat unanimously.

Now, let’s look at some statistics.

What stood out to me the most about this fight was the difference in strike differentials between these two fighters.

Xiaonan has one of the widest strike differentials in the entire UFC, landing almost 3 for every one strike she absorbs. Esparza has a negative strike differential, meaning she absorbs more than she lands.

Even if we assume this fight hits the ground, there’s still a huge statistical advantage for Xiaonan. In fact, her advantages win her this fight 66% of the time, according to the statistics.

With her current odds of -125, I think there’s tremendous value on Xiaonan’s side in this fight. As we touched on earlier, she’s passed this test before, and I think that confidence is a big plus for her going into this fight. As with the main event, we have a fighter in this matchup that is a former champion.

Statistically, ex-champions tend to decline and lose more fights than they win after their reign is over. As it so happens, Esparza is coming into this fight on a 5-fight win streak, but half of those were split decisions, and Xiaonan always puts her stamp on rounds. She’s won all her UFC fights unanimously.

UFC VEGAS 27 Co-MAIN EVENT BEST BET: Yan Xiaonan def. Carla Esparza.

VegasInsider Staff

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