UFC Fight Night: Santos vs. Walker Predictions, Picks, Odds
UFC Vegas 38 Betting Preview & Predictions
UFC Vegas 38 goes down this weekend in the UFC Apex in Las Vegas, Nevada. The event is headlined by Thiago Santos and Johnny Walker who will battle it out in a Light Heavyweight bout. The event also features appearances from other notable names such as Kevin Holland, Niko Price, and Aspen Ladd.
Let’s go through the most intriguing matchups and predict some winners for Saturday's event.
UFC Vegas 38 Bouts & Odds
Main Card
- Lt. Heavyweight: Thiago Santos (-175) vs. Johnny Walker (+145)
- Middleweight: Kevin Holland (-145) vs. Kyle Daukaus (+120)
- Welterweight: Alex Oliveira (+130) vs. Niko Price (-155)
- Middleweight: Misha Cirkunov (+140) vs. Krzystof Jotko (-165)
- Wo. Bantamweight: Aspen Ladd (-250) vs. Macy Chiasson (+200)
Prelims
- Lightweight: Joe Solecki (-140) vs. Jared Gordon (+115)
- Wo. Flyweight: Antonina Shevchenko (+180) vs. Casey O'Neill (-225)
- Wo. Bantamweight: Bethe Correia (+310) vs. Karol Rosa (-400)
- Lightweight: Jamie Mullarkey (+135) vs. Devonte Smith (-165)
- Featherweight: Douglas Silva de Andrade (-250) vs. Gaetano Pirrello (+200)
- Bantamweight: Alejandro Perez (-225) vs. Johnny Eduardo (+190)
Thiago Santos vs. Johnny Walker
UFC Vegas 38 Main Event Betting Analysis
Two finishers lock horns this weekend. Santos is a grizzled veteran whose claim to fame is his find-ending ability. He has a finish rate of 75% with 15 of his wins coming by way of knockout. The 37-year-old Brazilian is a former title-challenger at Light Heavyweight, but is coming into this weekend’s fight on a three-fight skid. It has been two-years since Santos saw his hand raised in the octagon.
Walker, 29, was once seen as the guy to dethrone Jon Jones. The legendary start to his UFC career, fuelled by a vicious three-fight win streak, would elevate his hype beyond the stars. A run in with seasoned contender Corey Anderson would serve as a reality-check for Walker however, losing via knockout two minutes into round one.
UFC Vegas 38: Santos vs. Walker tale of the tape
| Tale of the tape: Santos vs. Walker (10/3/21) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Santos vs. Walker Best Bet
Walker’s age advantage is big in this matchup. Santos hasn't looked like himself in recent outings, making me doubt whether he still has the fire to compete at the highest level. Injuries have also been the Achilles heel for Santos ever since his close bout against Jon Jones saw him tear the four main ligaments of his knee.
Walker’s change in gym affiliation has not riped fruit yet. Even though Walker won his last outing, the performance he gave us wasn't without it’s question marks. Walker being the underdog is not surprising based on his recent form, but I still get the feeling that Walker (being only 29) has many wins ahead of him while Santos (being almost 38) has his best days behind him.
In a situation where a declining fighter faces an ascending fighter, I see it playing out one way. Also consider Walker to win via KO when prop markets are open.
Best Bet: Walker ML +145
Kevin Holland vs. Kyle Daukaus
UFC Vegas 38 Co-Main Event Betting Analysis
This match is a striker versus grappler. UFC star-in-the-making Holland got his big break in 2020 with five wins in five bouts. Holland’s hype was buzzing in December 2020, and closed out the year with a first-round destruction of UFC veteran Jacare Souza, followed by a social media call-out of Derek Brunson.
In March Holland would get his wish fulfilled. The fight turned out horribly for the youngster, as we saw Holland getting completely shut out on the ground for five rounds against Derek Brunson.
The weak link would be further exploited for Holland in his next short-notice outing against Marvin Vettori, as he saw a similar fate in that fight. UFC newcomer Kyle Daukaus got his contract after a win on DWCS.
Since then, Daukaus has had three outings with mixed results. The 28-year old is 1-2 in the UFC. He holds eight wins by submission and two by decision. He has yet to win a fight via knockout.
UFC Vegas 38: Holland vs. Daukaus tale of the tape
| Tale of the tape: Holland vs. Daukaus (10/2/21) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Holland vs. Daukaus Best Bet
Daukaus is one of the new-generation grapplers who believes he can win solely through ground work. While it may work in the lower leagues, a certain level of striking is required to compete with the best - and yes, I do believe Holland is one of the better fighters in the Middleweight division.
Holland’s inability to wrestle was exposed in his last two outings, so much so that matching him up against Daukaus seems like a tongue-in-cheek message from the UFC. He needs to develop grappling skills.
Holland’s recent decision to train wrestling with Daniel Cormier has to pay off for him in this fight though, otherwise I can’t see how he keeps his job in the UFC long term.
That said, his skill level on the feet is in the stratosphere compared to Daukaus, meaning that as long as Holland stops the majority of the takedowns, he should win this fight handily. Now throw in a five-inch reach advantage for Holland and we have a lean.
Best Bet: Holland ML -145
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