User ID
Password
  Forgot User ID
or Register Today!
VegasInsider.com
Follow Us on Facebook Follow Us on Twitter Follow Us on Google+ VI Mobile Scores and Betting Odds
Home
NFL
NBA
NHL
MLB
NCAA FB
NCAA BK
Golf
Auto Racing
Horses
More
Betting Tools
 
Joe Nelson - Blogs

Bio Page
BETWEEN THE LINES - SEP. 3

By Joe Nelson
Posted 09/03/2012 at 04:12 PM

Expect a lot of the top college football teams in the polls to be overvalued this season as bookmakers shade the games high. Last season saw unprecedented ATS success for the top teams in the polls but last week USC, LSU, Oklahoma, Oregon, and Georgia all failed against massive spreads. Alabama was the lone top 5 team to cover last week, but they did so against another top 10 team as the top 10 actually went just 2-8 ATS last week counting the spreads in games against FCS teams. Those teams are highly ranked and highly favored for good reasons and there will be great spots to back those teams but blindly playing the top teams won’t likely turn in the great profit that it did last season as adjustments will be made.

               

Every year there are a handful of FBS teams that fall to the lower division FCS teams. The gap seems to be closing every year as there are a lot of quality FCS teams that could play very competitively against many of the FBS schools. While there are still massive blowouts in some of those games (see: Oklahoma State), there were four FCS teams that beat FBS teams outright last week and several that came very close. Pittsburgh losing to Youngstown State, and losing convincingly, was certainly the most noteworthy of those games. When analyzing these early results it is critical to grasp the quality of the FCS foe to determine how meaningful the numbers might be. All FCS foes are not created equal as there is as great of a disparity between those squads as there is at the FBS level. Former FCS team Texas State delivered the biggest upset of the week relative to the spread however, downing Houston 30-13 as nearly five touchdown underdogs.

               

The NFL will open the year with replacement officials and some have theorized that the move could lead to higher scoring. The preseason was higher scoring than usual this season but too much can be read into those numbers as teams are looking to get longer and more involved looks at the back-up QBs brought into camp. Teams are also less likely to show off all defensive packages and reads in the preseason in an era where everything is captured on film and heavily scrutinized. In 2001 the NFL used replacement officials for one week and there was an edge for the home teams but that was a very small sample of games.

               

The defending Super Bowl champion has not won a playoff game the following season since 2005 and the Giants will open the season Wednesday night with a key division game with Dallas. New York has a quality team but like last season they draw one of the toughest schedules in the league. The NFC has now won four of the last five Super Bowls to seemingly take over as the premier conference after a strong run for the AFC earlier in the decade. The NFC team is favored in all four inter-conference games this week and there are also an unusually high number of road favorites with five currently in week 1. There are also five favorites of more than a touchdown in the opening NFL slate. Since 1998 opening week favorites of more than a touchdown are just 18-28-1 and every year some of the consensus preseason projections of who will be the top teams can prove to be quite wrong.

               

The ‘over’ went 11-4-1 in week 1 last season, bucking conventional recent results that suggest that the opening week is lower scoring. Only one game is listed with a total below 40 however (after six games below 40 in week 1 last year), so the oddsmakers are certainly on to this plan. Best of Luck, on to this week’s slate…

BLOG ARCHIVES
08/25/2014 at 01:51 PM
Between the Lines - Aug. 25

08/25/2014 at 01:50 PM
4th Quarter Covers – Preseason Week 3:

08/20/2014 at 06:16 PM
NCAA Playoff Prediction

08/05/2014 at 07:20 PM
Between the Lines - Aug. 5

06/25/2014 at 01:19 PM
MLB Second Half Contenders

04/13/2014 at 12:18 PM
Early Look at the B1G in 2014-15

04/07/2014 at 12:21 PM
NCAA Championship Keys

04/04/2014 at 04:49 PM
NIT Provides Springboard to NCAA Success

03/24/2014 at 05:18 PM
MLB 2014 Win Totals Bets

01/13/2014 at 05:35 PM
Between the Lines - Jan. 13

01/06/2014 at 03:16 PM
Between the Lines - Jan. 6

12/30/2013 at 05:48 PM
Between the Lines - Dec. 30

12/23/2013 at 06:33 PM
Between the Lines - Dec. 23

12/09/2013 at 05:33 PM
Between the Lines - Dec. 9

12/02/2013 at 06:26 PM
Between the Lines - Dec. 2

11/25/2013 at 05:49 PM
Between the Lines - Nov. 25

11/20/2013 at 10:21 AM
Between the Lines - Nov. 18

11/11/2013 at 06:08 PM
Between the Lines - Nov. 11

11/04/2013 at 06:33 PM
Between the Lines - Nov. 4

10/28/2013 at 06:28 PM
Between the Lines - Oct. 28

10/21/2013 at 05:16 PM
Between the Lines - Oct. 21

10/15/2013 at 05:00 PM
Between the Lines: Oct. 14

10/10/2013 at 03:54 PM
Between the Lines - Oct. 7

10/01/2013 at 06:26 PM
Between the Lines - Sep. 30

09/23/2013 at 04:10 PM
Between the Lines - Sep. 23

09/10/2013 at 02:33 PM
Between the Lines - Sep. 9

09/03/2013 at 11:24 AM
Between the Lines - Sep. 2

08/30/2013 at 04:44 PM
Between the Lines - Aug. 26

08/15/2013 at 01:52 PM
Pretender or Contender: Arizona Diamondbacks

08/06/2013 at 05:46 PM
Pretender or Contender: Kansas City Royals

07/26/2013 at 09:29 AM
Pretender of Contender: Baltimore Orioles

07/23/2013 at 03:30 PM
Pretender or Contender: Philadelphia Phillies

07/19/2013 at 11:38 PM
Pretender or Contender: Cleveland Indians

04/12/2013 at 05:18 PM
Hot MLB Starts: AL Pretender or Contender?

03/27/2013 at 01:28 PM
2013 MLB Season Win Total Best Bets

03/14/2013 at 12:11 PM
Big Ten Tournament Snapshot

03/07/2013 at 02:02 PM
NCAA Tournament Long Shots

01/21/2013 at 06:35 PM
Between the Lines - Jan. 21

01/17/2013 at 12:24 PM
Between the Lines - Jan. 14

01/07/2013 at 06:31 PM
Between the Lines - Jan. 7

12/18/2012 at 02:16 PM
Between the Lines - Dec. 17

12/10/2012 at 06:08 PM
Between the Lines - Dec. 10

12/03/2012 at 06:41 PM
Between the Lines - Dec. 3

11/26/2012 at 06:11 PM
Between the Lines - Nov. 26

11/20/2012 at 01:06 PM
Between the Lines - Nov. 19

11/12/2012 at 06:32 PM
Between the Lines - Nov. 12

11/06/2012 at 12:17 PM
Between the Lines - Nov. 5

10/30/2012 at 04:31 PM
Between the Lines - Oct. 29

10/23/2012 at 12:41 PM
Between the Lines - Oct. 22

10/17/2012 at 04:45 PM
Between the Lines - Oct. 15

10/09/2012 at 01:51 PM
Between the Lines - Oct. 8

10/01/2012 at 05:15 PM
Between the Lines - Oct. 1

09/25/2012 at 03:28 PM
Packers/Seahawks

09/24/2012 at 05:42 PM
Between the Lines - Sep. 24

09/19/2012 at 05:52 PM
Between the Lins - Sep. 17

09/10/2012 at 07:10 PM
Between the Lines - Sep. 10

09/03/2012 at 04:12 PM
Between the Lines - Sep. 3

08/28/2012 at 02:28 PM
Between the Lines Aug. 27

08/21/2012 at 04:10 PM
Between the Lines - Aug. 20

08/16/2012 at 04:58 PM
Late Season MLB Sleepers

07/17/2012 at 04:46 PM
Four to Fade: American League

07/15/2012 at 09:04 PM
Four to Fade: National League

07/09/2012 at 05:08 PM
First Half MLB Awards

06/26/2012 at 01:09 PM
Hidden MLB Contenders

06/12/2012 at 04:44 PM
Big XII Football Early Look

05/26/2012 at 12:34 PM
Lucroy All Star Hurdles

05/24/2012 at 10:56 AM
Early Reaction on NFL Win Totals: 'UNDERS'

05/23/2012 at 03:03 PM
Early Reaction on NFL Win Totals: 'OVERS'

05/22/2012 at 03:14 PM
SEC West Football Early Look

05/17/2012 at 04:48 PM
SEC East Football: Early Look

02/28/2012 at 06:05 PM
NCAA Tournament Bid Thieves - Feb. 23

01/28/2012 at 12:56 PM
Between the Lines - Jan. 30

01/16/2012 at 04:19 PM
Between the Lines - Jan. 16

01/10/2012 at 04:42 PM
Between the Lines - Jan. 10

01/03/2012 at 05:28 PM
Between the Lines - Jan. 3

12/27/2011 at 04:13 PM
Between the Lines - Dec. 26

12/14/2011 at 02:42 PM
Between the Lines - Dec. 12

12/06/2011 at 04:55 PM
Between the Lines - Dec. 5

11/14/2011 at 06:14 PM
Between the Lines - Nov. 14

11/10/2011 at 11:11 AM
Between the Lines - Nov. 7

11/02/2011 at 02:38 PM
Between the Lines - Oct. 31

10/10/2011 at 06:58 PM
Between the Lines - Oct. 10

10/04/2011 at 06:17 PM
Between the Lines - Oct. 3

09/27/2011 at 11:21 AM
Between the Lines - Sep. 26

09/19/2011 at 07:11 PM
Between the Lines - Sep. 19

09/12/2011 at 06:31 PM
Between the Lines - Sep. 12

09/05/2011 at 03:29 PM
Cincinnati Bengals Over 5.5

09/05/2011 at 03:29 PM
Cleveland Browns Over 6.5

09/04/2011 at 12:02 PM
Kansas City Chiefs Under 7.5

09/04/2011 at 11:57 AM
Washington Redskins Over 6.5

09/01/2011 at 05:13 PM
Thursday NCAA Trends

09/01/2011 at 01:05 PM
St. Louis Rames Under 7.5

09/01/2011 at 12:59 PM
New York Giants Under 9.5

08/23/2011 at 04:24 PM
Thome's Final Destination?

08/18/2011 at 11:40 AM
Thursday Preseason QB Rotations

08/09/2011 at 02:21 PM
Yankees/Red Sox Race

08/08/2011 at 06:13 PM
White Sox Opportunity

08/04/2011 at 01:14 PM
TIgers Pull Away in AL Central

08/03/2011 at 03:03 PM
Raising Arizona: D-Backs into 1st place

07/29/2011 at 09:28 AM
NFL Free Agent WR Options

07/25/2011 at 04:18 PM
NFC West Schedule Outlook

07/18/2011 at 05:09 PM
NFC East Schedule Outlook

07/13/2011 at 03:37 PM
2011 MLB Free Agent Steals

07/08/2011 at 03:17 PM
Conference USA West Schedule Outlook

07/05/2011 at 04:27 PM
2011 NL All Star Snubs

07/03/2011 at 02:00 PM
2011 AL All Star Snubs

07/01/2011 at 02:30 PM
Early NL MVP Candidates

06/29/2011 at 03:52 PM
Conference USA East Schedule Outlook

06/28/2011 at 05:15 PM
Mountain West Schedule Outlook

06/22/2011 at 03:53 PM
Big East Schedule Outlook

06/21/2011 at 02:55 PM
NL Cy Young Favorites

03/20/2011 at 08:49 PM
Charmed Life for Arizona

03/11/2011 at 02:03 PM
Conference Tournament Reaction

01/17/2011 at 05:33 PM
Between the Lines - Jan. 17

01/13/2011 at 03:46 PM
Between the Lines - Jan. 10

01/06/2011 at 01:29 PM
Between the Lines - Jan. 3

12/27/2010 at 05:04 PM
Between the Lines - Dec. 27

12/21/2010 at 03:26 PM
Between the Lines - Dec. 20

12/14/2010 at 01:07 PM
Between the Lines - Dec. 13

12/06/2010 at 11:03 PM
Between the Lines - Dec. 6

11/30/2010 at 12:52 PM
Between the Lines - Nov. 29

11/23/2010 at 02:47 PM
Between the Lines - Nov. 22

11/16/2010 at 02:23 PM
Between the Lines - Nov. 15

11/08/2010 at 10:47 PM
Between the Lines - Nov. 8

11/02/2010 at 03:13 PM
Between the Lines - Nov. 1

10/26/2010 at 01:24 PM
Between the Lines - Oct. 25

10/19/2010 at 06:40 PM
Between the Lines - Oct. 18

10/12/2010 at 11:04 AM
Between the Lines - Oct. 11

10/05/2010 at 12:42 PM
Between the Lines - Oct. 4

09/28/2010 at 11:57 AM
Between the Lines - Sep. 27

09/20/2010 at 07:15 PM
Between the Lines - Sep. 20

09/14/2010 at 11:43 PM
Between the Lines - Sep. 12

09/07/2010 at 06:29 PM
Between the Lines - Sep. 6

06/10/2010 at 01:17 PM
Upon Further Review...

06/03/2010 at 12:08 PM
Replay Time

04/15/2010 at 03:38 PM
NBA Series Wagers Round 1

03/20/2010 at 11:14 AM
Conference Strength Questions

03/18/2010 at 05:32 PM
Great Start to the NCAA Tournament

01/20/2010 at 03:44 PM
Football Final Four

01/11/2010 at 04:35 PM
Kicking Woes

12/08/2009 at 01:46 PM
BCS Match-Ups

12/02/2009 at 04:20 PM
AFC Playoff Chase

11/27/2009 at 12:20 PM
Between the Lines

11/20/2009 at 05:11 PM
4th and 2, up 6

11/11/2009 at 04:13 PM
Time to Score

10/21/2009 at 05:41 PM
BCS Reaction

10/15/2009 at 01:02 PM
Bronco Boom

09/25/2009 at 01:16 PM
Between the Lines

09/14/2009 at 05:50 PM
Big XII Bust

09/14/2009 at 05:49 PM
Big Ten Disaster?

08/19/2009 at 06:12 PM
Favre Scores for Minnesota

07/30/2009 at 03:28 PM
Time for Replay in Baseball

06/16/2009 at 03:20 PM
Championship Losers

06/10/2009 at 03:33 PM
Home Teams Shine

05/27/2009 at 03:01 PM
All-Star Manny

05/21/2009 at 03:52 PM
NBA Lotto

05/12/2009 at 04:22 PM
Early Big Ten Thoughts

05/07/2009 at 03:54 PM
Another Legend Falls

04/28/2009 at 02:58 PM
18-game NFL Schedule?

04/23/2009 at 02:54 PM
Early Season MLB Surprises

04/14/2009 at 01:44 PM
Early Season AL Thoughts

04/07/2009 at 12:55 PM
What was Izzo thinking?

04/01/2009 at 04:15 PM
West vs. East in the NBA

03/31/2009 at 04:48 PM
End of Madness

03/21/2009 at 11:58 AM
Familiar Upsets

03/12/2009 at 05:10 PM
Early Postseason Surprises

03/11/2009 at 05:31 PM
Impact of Conference Tourney Upsets

03/03/2009 at 12:21 PM
Celebrate Hockey

02/27/2009 at 04:41 PM
Spring Training

02/16/2009 at 03:06 PM
ACC Letdown in March

02/06/2009 at 02:09 PM
Dream Week at the Garden

02/02/2009 at 11:23 AM
Super Joke?

01/27/2009 at 03:43 PM
Best NBA team in '09?

01/23/2009 at 04:50 PM
Between the Lines - Jan. 23

01/19/2009 at 03:36 PM
Super Bowl Long Shot?

01/12/2009 at 05:10 PM
Between the Lines - Jan. 12

01/09/2009 at 06:24 PM
BCS Championship Thoughts

01/07/2009 at 12:35 PM
Between the Lines - Jan. 5

12/30/2008 at 06:51 PM
Between the Lines - Dec. 30

12/21/2008 at 04:11 PM
Between the Lines 12/19

12/15/2008 at 04:07 PM
Between the Lines 12/15

12/08/2008 at 06:06 PM
Between the Lines 12/8

12/03/2008 at 05:14 PM
Feeling Minnesota

12/01/2008 at 06:13 PM
Between the Lines 12/1

11/25/2008 at 01:23 PM
Between the Lines 11/24

11/19/2008 at 12:39 PM
Between the Lines 11/17

11/12/2008 at 03:22 PM
Between the Lines 11/10

11/03/2008 at 06:28 PM
Between the Lines 11/3

10/27/2008 at 06:52 PM
Between the Lines 10/27

10/20/2008 at 06:09 PM
Between the Lines 10/20

10/15/2008 at 01:09 PM
Between the Lines 10/13

10/09/2008 at 04:13 PM
Errors Dominate Dvision Series Games

10/06/2008 at 05:30 PM
Between the Lines 10/6

09/29/2008 at 05:06 PM
Between the Lines 9/29

09/24/2008 at 05:31 PM
Between the Lines 9/22

09/18/2008 at 11:27 PM
Huge Win for the Twins

09/17/2008 at 12:14 PM
Between the Lines

09/13/2008 at 09:57 AM
Big East Victory?

09/07/2008 at 01:04 PM
Puzzling Box Scores

09/02/2008 at 04:56 PM
Redemption for UCLA

08/25/2008 at 06:25 PM
K-Rod to 50

08/19/2008 at 03:23 PM
Opportunity in the AFC?

08/13/2008 at 01:38 PM
Great Playoff Chase Ahead

08/10/2008 at 09:23 PM
No Woods, No Problem

08/04/2008 at 02:51 PM
Manny Mania in LA

07/30/2008 at 03:21 PM
Twins & Cards Keep Fighting

07/18/2008 at 12:02 PM
Royal Birkdale Miracle

07/12/2008 at 11:44 AM
Trouble in Titletown

07/10/2008 at 12:15 PM
NL Central Arms Race

06/25/2008 at 02:09 PM
AL Continues to Shine

06/20/2008 at 05:01 PM
American League Wins Again...

06/10/2008 at 12:26 PM
Huge NBA Finals Spread

06/03/2008 at 01:34 PM
Joba to the Rescue?

05/23/2008 at 02:07 PM
Draft Lottery or League Mockery?

05/15/2008 at 02:36 PM
1st Quarter MLB Outlook

05/12/2008 at 01:17 PM
Pass the Mayo

04/30/2008 at 12:57 PM
NBA Playoff Surprises

04/24/2008 at 01:46 PM
Cheer for the D-League

04/15/2008 at 02:24 PM
4-Way tie in the West?

04/09/2008 at 12:31 PM
Fantastic NCAA Final, MLB Surprises

03/31/2008 at 11:31 AM
Whirlwind Weekend

03/28/2008 at 02:27 PM
Sweet 16

03/24/2008 at 06:29 PM
Weekend Recap

03/20/2008 at 07:18 PM
Thursday Day Games

03/17/2008 at 03:32 PM
Concerns About UCLA

03/12/2008 at 03:21 PM
Bubble Picture

03/10/2008 at 07:18 PM
The Legend Finally Ends

03/03/2008 at 04:39 PM
Early Conference Tournament Edge

02/27/2008 at 02:50 PM
State of Basketball

02/25/2008 at 05:03 PM
#1 Upset Coming, Again?

02/18/2008 at 12:18 PM
Kidd Deal Finally Done?

02/13/2008 at 06:45 PM
Overtime Nightmare

02/07/2008 at 04:30 PM
Devils and Badgers Earn Big Road Wins

02/04/2008 at 01:25 PM
Super Bowl for the Ages

01/31/2008 at 02:28 PM
#2 Falls + NBA Trade Rumors

01/30/2008 at 12:46 PM
Stealing an Ace

01/29/2008 at 02:25 PM
UConn on a Roll, Hornets Keep Winning

01/28/2008 at 01:43 PM
Big East Displays Dominance

01/24/2008 at 02:13 PM
The Diminishing Weight of Retiring Numbers

01/21/2008 at 12:00 PM
Championship Recap

01/16/2008 at 02:41 PM
The Beginning of the End for Dallas?

01/14/2008 at 05:09 PM
Peyton Back to Normal?

01/04/2008 at 02:23 PM
Big Ten vs. the SEC

01/03/2008 at 10:28 AM
The Decline of the Sooners

01/02/2008 at 10:41 AM
New Year's Day - just not what it used to be.

12/21/2007 at 08:00 PM
Between the Lines 12/21...

12/17/2007 at 03:40 PM
Between the Lines 12/17

12/03/2007 at 05:37 PM
Between the Lines 12/3

11/29/2007 at 06:56 PM
Between the Lines...11/26

11/12/2007 at 06:12 PM
Between the Lines... 11/12

11/03/2007 at 11:30 AM
Between the Lines 10/29

10/26/2007 at 01:30 PM
Between the Lines 10/22

10/19/2007 at 12:07 PM
Between the Lines 10/15...

10/12/2007 at 01:38 PM
Between the Lines 10/8...

10/05/2007 at 06:49 PM
Between the Lines 10/1

09/26/2007 at 02:28 PM
Between the Lines 9/24

09/21/2007 at 01:15 PM
Between the Lines 9/17

09/13/2007 at 11:50 AM
Between the Lines 9/10

09/05/2007 at 03:13 PM
9/3 Between the Lines...

08/23/2007 at 05:05 PM
Draft Day for the rest of us.

08/15/2007 at 04:24 PM
NL Central Heats Up?

08/08/2007 at 06:00 PM
756, finally.