Posted 01/07/2019 at 04:40 PM
Backing the more experienced quarterback netted a 4-0 ATS result in the wild card round last week though with some unusual quirky results. The Chargers posted just 3.7 yards per play winning in Baltimore with 243 total yards. Statistically it was a similar game to the Bills/Jaguars result last season though with more scoring as four field goals in the game came on drives of 16 or fewer yards. If quarterback experience dictates the results this week that means fading the AFC’s top seed as the least experienced quarterback remaining is the likely MVP leading the Chiefs in Patrick Mahomes. The biggest disparity in playoff experience at quarterback is actually the Chargers/Patriots games as Tom Brady has played 17 more playoff games than Philip Rivers, though Rivers has the third most playoff games under his belt in the remaining field.
The Bears/Eagles game will go down an infamy for the double-ding kick finish and the box score provided many bizarre anomalies. Chicago had more yards, more yards per play, more rushing yards, more yards per rush, more passing yards, more yards per attempt, a better QB Rating, and two fewer turnovers. No touchdowns in three red zone trips, suspect clock management, a few costly penalties along with one of the more unusual officiating decisions in recent history, and the final missed field goal were factors in a painful Bears loss. Since 1990 postseason road teams with a -2 or worse turnover margin are now 5-83 S/U with the Eagles adding to the win column Sunday.
Underdogs are now on a 14-1 playoff run since the start of last season’s playoffs. The lone cover by a favorite came in the divisional round by the Patriots hosting the Titans, who had won as a massive underdog in Kansas City in the wild card round. New England is 13-2 S/U and 9-5-1 in their opening playoff games in the Bill Belichick era including winning seven straight divisional round games with only one missed cover in that span. New England has hosted a divisional round game as a top two AFC seed now in nine consecutive seasons but none of those games were against the Chargers. The Patriots won in San Diego in the divisional round in the 2006-07 season and beat the Chargers in the AFC Championship in the 2007-08 season.
The Cowboys and Seahawks already have an infamous playoff game in their histories but Saturday’s result will be long remembered in gambling circles. With kicker Sebastian Janikowski injured Seattle didn’t kick a field goal on 4th down trailing by 10 and then after getting the touchdown went for two without a proven kicker, getting the conversion and ultimately covering the spread for many, though the number fluctuated from +2½ down to +1 and back up to close at +3. Those on the ‘under’ may have had the more painful result with that game the only wild card game going ‘over’ with 22 4th quarter points. Best of Luck and on to this week’s slate…