Shooting Blanks
November 6, 2009 By Kevin Rogers VegasInsider.com
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Through the first ten days of the NBA season, several teams are displaying prevalent shooting trends. How does that translate into playing totals going forward? Which categories are the most relevant when pertaining to totals?
The five worst shooting teams from the floor have been solid 'unders' play so far, despite three of those clubs owning a .500 record or better. The Bobcats have scored 80 points or less in three of their first five games, while shooting a miserable 36% from the field. In one of the games in which Larry Brown's team tallied more than 80 points, it was a double-overtime victory against the Knicks in which Charlotte put up 102. However, the Bobcats had 82 points at the end of regulation. Charlotte finally put up a solid shooting effort on Friday in a 103-83 thrashing of Atlanta, hitting 47% of its shots from the field, including 11 three-pointers.
The Bucks are without their top scorer Michael Redd for the next two weeks, as he aggravated a knee injury that caused him to miss the final two months of last season. With that being said, Milwaukee has still struggled from the floor, making 40% of its shots through four games. The Bucks have finished 'under' the total in each game, with their highest output being 96 points in a home win over the Pistons.
Worst FG% Shooting Teams
Team
Field Goal %
Over/Under
Charlotte
38.3%
2-3
Milwaukee
40.4%
0-4
Chicago
40.8%
1-4
New Jersey
41.5%
2-4
Dallas
41.6%
1-4
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The only winless team in the league continues to have problems putting the ball in the basket. New Jersey is 0-6 out of the gate, and it's not getting better as leading scorer Devin Harris is out with a strained groin. The Nets are shooting 40% from the floor, and 26% from beyond the arc. However, New Jersey has hit the 'over' twice, once at Washington, and at home against Denver.
A surprising team on this list is the Mavericks, who are hitting just 41.6% of their shots from the field. Dallas has won three of its first five games, but have nailed the 'under' four times. In actuality, the 'under' should be perfect with the Mavs if they hit a couple of free throws down the stretch at New Orleans on Wednesday. Instead, Peja Stojakovic drilled a three-pointer to force overtime, costing 'under' backers a chance to cash.
Worst 3-PT FG% Shooting Teams
Team
3-PT FG %
Over/Under
Chicago
23%
1-4
New Jersey
27%
2-4
Minnesota
27%
1-5
Indiana
27%
1-4
Charlotte
28%
2-3
Teams that have problems from beyond the arc have been solid 'under' plays, and to no one's surprise, three of the teams that shot poorly from inside the arc are on this list. The two newcomers to this story are the Pacers and Timberwolves, who are each shooting a shade above 25% from the three-point line. Indiana and Minnesota have combined to hit nine of eleven 'unders' through the first ten days.
What about getting to the line? How much does that affect total plays? For the top four teams in this category, it means more 'overs' than 'unders.' The undefeated Nuggets lead the league in most trips to the charity stripe through five games, averaging 35.3 free throws. That has translated into three 'overs,' with one of the three 'unders' coming at Indiana, as the total closed at 224.
Most FT Attempts
Team
FT Attempts
Over/Under
Denver
35.3
3-3
Toronto
34.0
3-2
Detroit
31.3
2-4
Memphis
31.2
4-2
Philadelphia
30.6
2-3
The Raptors are a close second in this department, as Toronto averages 34 free-throw attempts a game. The Raps have turned into a strong 'over' club, cashing three of four times. That number may be a bit skewed, as Toronto attempted 47 foul shots in Wednesday's victory over Detroit.
There is still plenty of time for things to improve for some of these poor shooting clubs, and maybe it's just early-season rust. However, keep an eye on these teams' totals coming down if they keep having problems hitting their shots going forward.