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Total Talk - Week 11
November 17, 2012
By Chris David
VegasInsider.com
Week 10 Recap
The ‘over’ produced an 8-6 ledger last week and once again, total players were helped with some late bursts, which of course created bad beats. For those you who had the ‘under’ in the Detroit-Minnesota and Dallas-Philadelphia matchups, we apologize. The two games saw 42 and 44 points posted in the second-half, including 32 and 27 respectively in the final quarter. On the season, the ‘over’ stands at 75-71-1.
Under the Lights – Literally!
This past Thursday, we thought the Buffalo-Miami game had a good chance to go ‘over’ after the Bills built a 13-7 lead over the Dolphins in the first quarter. The game was still on a good pace at halftime (19-7) but only seven points were scored in the second-half and the combined 33 points fell ‘under’ the closing number of 45 ½. Including this outcome, the ‘under’ has now gone 23-9 (72%) this season in primetime games. Looking at the games this Sunday (Pittsburgh-Baltimore) and Monday (San Francisco-Chicago), it’s safe to say that it would be surprising to see shootouts, especially when two of the four teams will be starting backup quarterbacks. Sometimes it’s better to roll with the trend than try to buck it!
Line Moves
The smart and public money went 2-0 last week with their early bets, both tickets coming in the SNF and MNF matchups. (**) Quarterback injuries have certainly helped this week’s moves, which have all gone down. Does nobody like to bet ‘over’ tickets anymore?
Here are the early moves at CRIS:
** Philadelphia at Washington: Line opened 46 and dropped to 44 ½
Arizona at Atlanta: Line opened 45 ½ and dropped to 44
Jacksonville at Houston: Line opened at 42 ½ and dropped to 40 ½
San Diego at Denver: Line opened at 50 ½ and dropped to 48 ½
** Baltimore at Pittsburgh : Line opened at 45 ½ and dropped to 40
Divisional Rematches
On the season, when opponents meet in their second divisional game, the ‘over’ has gone 5-2 (71%) in these contests. Last week, gamblers following the trend watched the Bills and Patriots play to another shootout. They also got lucky with the Detroit-Minnesota game (see above). This Sunday, there are three rematches on tap and two of them watched the ‘under’ cash in the first go ‘round.
Tampa Bay at Carolina: The Buccaneers defeated the Panthers 16-10 in Week 1 and the closing total of 45 ½ was never threatened. We fast forward 10 weeks and the total is higher (48) for the rematch, but why? For starters, Tampa Bay has watched the ‘over’ cash in six straight games and it’s getting scores from all over. In last week’s 34-24 victory over San Diego, the Bucs got a pick-six and a blocked punt return. Carolina has been held to 14 or less in five of its nine games, which should make you a little hesitant to back the ‘over.’ However, the Bucs defense (401 YPG) is the second-worst in the league and it’s banged-up with injuries too. If Cam Newton can’t produce against this unit, then Carolina has big problems.
Jacksonville at Houston: This number has dropped (see above) and you can understand why when you look at the style of Houston. The Texans’ defense is the second-best in the league and the offense grinds you down, which was clearly shown in Houston’s 27-7 win over Jacksonville in Week 2. It’s hard to argue for the Jaguars offense but they’ve played better on the road, averaging 20.8 points per game. Getting to that number won’t be easy but the Texans could be looking ahead to their Thanksgiving Day battle at Detroit. Including this year’s meeting, the ‘under’ has cashed in three straight between these teams.
San Diego at Denver: The Broncos have been great bets for the betting public lately (4-0 SU/ATS) and the ‘over’ has gone 3-1 in this span. The team hasn’t been held under 31 points during this span, and that includes their 35-24 road win over San Diego on MNF in Week 6. The number of points was a little misleading since turnovers created some short tracks and three touchdowns as well. The Chargers are one tough team to figure out and once again, they’ll probably be the best team not to make the playoffs. As much as you want to rip Phillip Rivers (and he deserves it), this guy puts up big numbers in Colorado. Since taking over in 2006, the Chargers have scored 35, 41, 38, 32, 33 and 29 points with Rivers under center. The Bolts are 5-1 in those games and the one loss came by one point.
Something has to give!
The total on the Patriots-Colts opened at 53 ½ and was pushed up to 54. New England has seen the ‘over’ cash in seven straight games. Meanwhile, Indianapolis has watched the ‘under’ go 6-2-1 on the season and that includes four consecutive ‘under’ tickets. A large reason for the low-scoring affairs is the Colts defense, which has given up 13, 13, 20 and 10 the past four weeks. Let’s be clear that those numbers came against two rookie QBs (Browns, Dolphins) and two inconsistent offenses in the Titans and Jaguars. Outside of a game against Green Bay in Week 5, the Colts haven’t come close to facing an attack similar to the Patriots. The Packers put up 27 points in that contest and you figure New England will at least get to that number. However, if Indianapolis has any realistic shot to win this game then you would expect them to milk the clock with rookie QB Andrew Luck. While we agree with most pundits that Luck is going to be great, he’s had trouble with tossing interceptions (7) on the road and those are daggers for ‘over’ bets.
Fearless Predictions
If it wasn’t for Seattle’s prolific offense, we would’ve had the sweep. Still, we’ll take the profits ($190) and look to build on the positive bankroll ($180). As always, Press, Pass or Fade but in the end - Good Luck!
Best Over: Tampa Bay-Carolina 48
Best Under: Baltimore-Pittsburgh 40
Best Team Total: Over Chargers 20 1/2
Three-Team Total Teaser (9-Point, +100):
Over 39 Tampa Bay-Carolina
Over 43 ½ Green Bay-Detroit
Under 48 N.Y. Jets-St. Louis
Chris David can be reached at cdavid@vegasinsider.com
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