Get a sneak peek of the future VI! Try it now
Advertisement
Be Social
VegasInsider.com on Youtube Bet Now
 

College Football Weekly Free Picks

 

SEC Video Picks - Week 7

Week 7 College Football Free Picks

VegasInsider.com College Football expert Kevin Davis provides his weekly Best Bets for this weekend’s college football slate.

Davis is locked and loaded with four selections for Saturday, Oct. 16, 2020.

Week 7 Matchups

  • Navy at East Carolina (ESPN2, 12:00 p.m. ET)
  • Clemson at Georgia Tech (ABC, 12:00 p.m. ET)
  • Texas A&M at Mississippi State (ESPN, 4:00 p.m. ET)
  • Boston College at Virginia Tech (ACC, 8:00 p.m. ET)

Underdog Best Bet

Boston College at Virginia Tech

Boston College Moneyline +360
Boston College +12.5

Since the 2020 college football season started, I have been backing moneyline underdogs and most of them have been winning. For the last five weeks, four of my five underdogs of the week have won outright including Boston College last week.

This week after beating Pittsburgh outright as a +210 moneyline underdogs, Boston College is an underdog yet again at Virginia Tech.

V-Tech currently is ranked, just like Pittsburgh once was earlier this season. I think as a defensively minded team, Boston College could win in an upset again. That is why I am backing Boston College to beat Virginia Tech outright as +360 moneyline underdogs.

Boston College for the past few years has had a relatively below average football program as they typically win only six to seven games. They have been consistently mediocre and this year they have a new head coach in Jeff Hafley and the school has surprisingly gotten off to a hot start.

The Eagles beat Duke in their first game 26-6 as four-point underdogs, lost to North Carolina by only four points despite being 14.5 point underdogs, and then beat Pittsburgh last week as six-point underdogs.

The Virginia Tech offense currently is third among all FBS teams in rushing yards per attempt with an average of 6.46 yards per rush. I believe BC can contain Tech as their rushing defense gives up only 3.67 rushing yards per rush.

I believe the game will be very tight and I'm backing Boston College both on the money-line and as a double-digit underdog.

Favorite Best Bet

Navy at East Carolina

Navy -2.5
Navy -11.5 Alternate Spread (+245)

East Carolina has started off the season 1-2 while Navy has started the season off 2-2. While on paper it appears that both teams are equal in talent, I believe that Navy is much more talented than East Carolina.

Navy consistently is one of the best teams in the American Athletic Conference (AAC), while ECU is consistently one of the worst. I do not think that much has changed this year and that is why I am backing the Navy -2.5 point spread at -115 odds, and the -11.5 alternate point spread at +245 odds.

Navy has been one of the least consistent teams in college football this season, which is very uncommon for a school that has posted 11 win seasons twice over the last five years.

In their two losses they lost 55-3 to BYU, and 40-7 against Air Force. In their two wins they beat both Tulane and Temple by a field goal or less.

Advertisement

While it is easy to think that Navy will only beat East Carolina by a touchdown or less, it is important to remember that East Carolina by far is a much weaker team than Navy's previous four opponents.

The defense of the Pirates is currently giving up 4.77 yards per rush and I believe the unit is going to have a tough time against the complicated Navy triple-option offense which is primarily a run based offense.

Just like last week's favorite in Marshall, I expect Navy to post a wire-to-wire victory over ECU.

Over-Under Best Bet

Texas A&M at Mississippi State

Over 54.5

Up until this year, I would have been hard pressed to bet most SEC games to go over a 54.5 point total. Unlike the Big 12 or Pac-12, the SEC is known as a defensively minded conference where teams run pro-style offenses.

However, this season has been wild and it's largely due to coaching changes and teams being underprepared due to the schedule. Expecting more SEC shootouts is a reality in 2020.

Last week, Alabama beat Ole Miss 63-48 and that game was not an outlier as many other SEC games have been high-scoring as well.

I think Saturday’s game between Texas A&M and Mississippi State will fit into the 'shootout' criteria in Week 7.

Mississippi State has a new head coach Mike Leach, who has implemented a new pass-heavy air raid offense. While Leach and the Bulldogs have a great offense this year, their defense is rather lousy.

In their first game Mississippi State beat defending national champion LSU 44-34. In their second and third games, the offense fell flat scoring only 14 points against Arkansas and two points against Kentucky.

I believe that the Bulldogs' offense is only going to get better as the season progresses and that is why this Saturday is going to be the only time where the total is set at lower than 60 points for a Miss State game.

On the other side of the field is a Texas A&M defense, which gave up 38 points to Florida in their last game, and 52 points to Alabama in their previous game. I think the offensive talent is there for both Texas A&M and Mississippi State to combine for over 54.5 points in this game.

Team Total Best Bet

Clemson at Georgia Tech

Clemson Team Total - Under 45

Clemson is perennially one of the best teams in all of college football while Georgia Tech after years of mediocrity is starting to put together a competitive football team. Regardless of who Clemson plays, they usually will score between 38 and 45 points on a weekly basis.

While Clemson is certainly capable of scoring more points, their tendency is to play more conservatively when they have a big lead. This is because as a perennial playoff contender, Clemson does not need to pad their resume by running up the score. That is why I am betting that they will go under their team total of 45 points.

Besides Clemson being likely to not run the score against Georgia Tech, I think the Yellow Jackets defense will be able to hold Clemson to fewer than 45 points as well.

Georgia Tech was able to hold Florida State to 13 points, Syracuse to 37 points, and Louisville to 27 points.

Only against UCF did Georgia Tech give up more than 45 points when they lost 49-21, but that was only because UCF likes to run up the score to pad their statistics as a group of five school.

I think based on Georgia Tech’s defense and Clemson’s coaching tendencies; Clemson will score fewer than 45 points on Saturday.

Best Bet Tracker

  • Boston College Moneyline +360
  • Boston College +12.5
  • Navy -2.5
  • Navy -11.5 Alternate Spread (+245)
  • Texas A&M/Mississippi State Over 54.5
  • Clemson Team Total Under 45

  
corner graphic
Advertisement