SEC Video Picks - Week 7
Week 7 College Football Free Picks
VegasInsider.com College Football expert Kevin Davis provides his weekly Best Bets for this weekend’s college football slate.
Davis is locked and loaded with four selections for Saturday, Oct. 16, 2020.
Week 7 Matchups
Underdog Best Bet
Boston College at Virginia Tech
Boston College Moneyline +360
While it is easy to think that Navy will only beat East Carolina by a touchdown or less, it is important to remember that East Carolina by far is a much weaker team than Navy's previous four opponents.
The defense of the Pirates is currently giving up 4.77 yards per rush and I believe the unit is going to have a tough time against the complicated Navy triple-option offense which is primarily a run based offense.
Just like last week's favorite in Marshall, I expect Navy to post a wire-to-wire victory over ECU.
Up until this year, I would have been hard pressed to bet most SEC games to go over a 54.5 point total. Unlike the Big 12 or Pac-12, the SEC is known as a defensively minded conference where teams run pro-style offenses.
However, this season has been wild and it's largely due to coaching changes and teams being underprepared due to the schedule. Expecting more SEC shootouts is a reality in 2020.
Last week, Alabama beat Ole Miss 63-48 and that game was not an outlier as many other SEC games have been high-scoring as well.
I think Saturday’s game between Texas A&M and Mississippi State will fit into the 'shootout' criteria in Week 7.
Mississippi State has a new head coach Mike Leach, who has implemented a new pass-heavy air raid offense. While Leach and the Bulldogs have a great offense this year, their defense is rather lousy.
In their first game Mississippi State beat defending national champion LSU 44-34. In their second and third games, the offense fell flat scoring only 14 points against Arkansas and two points against Kentucky.
I believe that the Bulldogs' offense is only going to get better as the season progresses and that is why this Saturday is going to be the only time where the total is set at lower than 60 points for a Miss State game.
On the other side of the field is a Texas A&M defense, which gave up 38 points to Florida in their last game, and 52 points to Alabama in their previous game. I think the offensive talent is there for both Texas A&M and Mississippi State to combine for over 54.5 points in this game.
Clemson is perennially one of the best teams in all of college football while Georgia Tech after years of mediocrity is starting to put together a competitive football team. Regardless of who Clemson plays, they usually will score between 38 and 45 points on a weekly basis.
While Clemson is certainly capable of scoring more points, their tendency is to play more conservatively when they have a big lead. This is because as a perennial playoff contender, Clemson does not need to pad their resume by running up the score. That is why I am betting that they will go under their team total of 45 points.
Besides Clemson being likely to not run the score against Georgia Tech, I think the Yellow Jackets defense will be able to hold Clemson to fewer than 45 points as well.
Georgia Tech was able to hold Florida State to 13 points, Syracuse to 37 points, and Louisville to 27 points.
Only against UCF did Georgia Tech give up more than 45 points when they lost 49-21, but that was only because UCF likes to run up the score to pad their statistics as a group of five school.
I think based on Georgia Tech’s defense and Clemson’s coaching tendencies; Clemson will score fewer than 45 points on Saturday.