NBA Finals Free Picks, Predictions, Odds

Expert Free Picks

Our NBA Free Picks are back for NBA Finals! VegasInsider betting experts will be breaking down the latest odds, as well as providing their top predictions and best bets for every matchup throughout this year's championship series between the Boston Celtics and Dallas Mavericks.

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NBA Finals Expert Free Picks for Friday, June 14

Our VI basketball betting experts have compiled their NBA picks for Friday, June 14 and they're focusing on Game 4 of the Finals:

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Mavericks vs Celtics Free Picks

Dallas Mavericks +1 (-110)

Boston held on in a tense finish to Game 3 in Dallas, taking a commanding 3-0 series lead and all but confirming the franchise's 18th championship.

Teams up 3-0 in a best-of-seven NBA playoff series have eventually closed out the series 156 times in 156 tries including 14 times in the NBA Finals, though last year the Celtics came relatively close to becoming the outlier, forcing a Game 7 vs. Miami in the Eastern Conference Finals after falling behind 3-0.

This year's conference finals featured two 3-0 leads and the team down 0-3, covered in both Game 4s while NBA Finals hosts down 0-3 have gone 3-2 ATS in Game 4 since 1996.

Teams down 0-3 in the conference finals are on an 8-4 ATS run since 2005 while conference semifinalists down 0-3 have gone 5-3-1 ATS since 2012 as there is some historical support for Dallas in Game 4, even with the likely insurmountable odds to win the series. Luka Doncic has been incredibly productive in this series for Dallas, but he was 11-27 shooting in Game 3 with only one 3-point make.

Kyrie Irving did score 35 but Dallas didn't get the balanced scoring around the roster as they did in Game 2 when five players reached double-figures. Boston made 17 3-point shots in Game 3 but still saw a 21-point lead trimmed to one-point in the 4th quarter and Joe Mazzulla's inexperience at this stage has still shown up at times.

A few close officiating decisions went Boston's way in Game 3 and the past two games have been very competitive despite seven-point final margins. One should not expect to see Kristaps Porzingis again in this series after his status was less clear for Game 3 yet the Game 4 line is reduced compared to Game 3 for Dallas.

One can expect a few things go in favor of the Mavericks on Friday night if the team shows up with more consistent energy and can spread the ball more effectively. Dallas still has potential advantages with Daniel Gafford and Dereck Lively inside while Dallas is likely to get more from Derrick Jones and P.J. Washington in Game 4. In any sport the market tends to shift too far in a 3-0 series situation and Dallas should be considered a favorable threat to extend this series even if a Boston title is inevitable.

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