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NBA Daily Free Picks, Predictions, Odds

 

NBA Free Picks
Sunday, August 2, 2020

  • by Matt Blunt
  • August 2, 2020
  • VegasInsider.com

Washington vs. Brooklyn (2:05 p.m. ET)

Odds: Nets (-2.5), Total 235

Taking more of a macro approach with this one, as today's going to be the first time we see everyone play their second game for the most part, and this is the first time they've done two games in three days in a very long time. Saturday's results for the four teams first up in that role (Utah, New Orleans, LAC, LAL) were interesting in that as a group they averaged 103.75 points and two of them were held under 95. The legs didn't always seem to be there for these guys – especially in the second half – and now it's the rest of the league's turn in that role.

With the market already flying high with totals moving upwards in a hurry thanks to Friday's action, there is already more potential for these totals to be slightly inflated. Three of the five games on Saturday went 'under' the total though and all three involved at least one of those four teams playing Game #2. Today in general is where we could end up seeing the 'unders' get their revenge, with the market a little overexposed and gas tanks for the NBA players running low.

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So the macro approach is to start with the first game of the day 'under' the number and continue to only look that way the rest of the day. Given that Washington and Brooklyn would be high up on the list of teams that don't really want to (or will be) in the bubble for long, this could end being a contest both sides look to be done with as quickly as possible.

Best Bet: Under 235

Houston vs. Milwaukee (ABC, 8:35 p.m. ET)

Odds: Bucks (-4), Total 242

Milwaukee may have been given a “gift” in Marcus Smart's eyes in their 119-112 win over Boston in the opener, but the Bucks have heard that too and would love to make a statement against a quality team in a bad spot.

If the premise is going to be gas tanks are going to be running rather low today, Houston's overall energy has to be lacking. Putting up 150+ in an OT win right out of the gate does nothing but really hurt the potential of a positive outcome in Game 2. Nevermind that it's against the best team in the league.

But Houston couldn't miss on Friday, and the Bucks didn't look particularly dominant, so there is a case to be made that the line is a little short too. The Bucks legs will be a little tired as well, but I do think you've got to take them to win by a couple of possessions over an opponent off an OT game.

Best Bet: Milwaukee Bucks -4

Dallas vs. Phoenix (9:05 p.m. ET)

Odds: Mavericks (-6), Total 236.5

Blending the two approaches here, in that Dallas is the other club off that long OT Game, these are two teams that are prone to streaky shooting in both directions, and questionable energy for 48 minutes is likely, and this number is just too high.

Both teams need the win relative to what they want to do come playoff positions, so the need for intensity on defense will already be there to begin with. To win with tired legs you'd better be willing to play defense, and to stay under 236 points the defense doesn't even need to be all that great.

Just can't foresee today resembling the pace we saw from these teams in their opening games.

Best Bet: Under 236.5


  
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