Last Updated Jan 29, 2023, 6:41 PM
NFL Parlay Picks for January 29, 2023
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VegasInsider's NFL Parlay Picks page is updated weekly with our top selections to help you win big this football season! You can use our Parlay Calculator to see what your exact parlay payout will be. Also, feel free to visit our Free Picks page for more tips and predictions for the rest of this week's NFL action.
49ers vs. Eagles SGP Picks
- Philadelphia Eagles ML (-150)
- A.J. Brown (PHI) Over 70.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
- Brock Purdy (SF) Over 0.5 Interceptions Thrown (-150)
Philadelphia Eagles ML
The Eagles and Niners have a lot in common, but none more so than the fact that the overall merit of both of their journeys have been consistently belittled throughout the year due to a weak strength of schedule, and rightfully so, as Philly’s slate of opponents yielded a record of 134-149-6 during the regular season, and San Francisco’s went 120-168-1.
However, San Francisco has one of the best rushing attacks in the league, and prior to their latest affair, the Niners looked utterly unstoppable since the transition from Jimmy Garoppolo to Brock Purdy back in Week 13, highlighted by the Niners racking up a lofty average of 30.4 PPG across their last eight contests, while posting a perfect 8-0 record during that stretch.
But truth be told, the Niners’ offense looked pretty bad in their Divisional Round matchup against Dallas. Purdy was visibly flustered in his first outing versus a legit pass rush, highlighted by the rookie’s lackluster QBR of 87.4 in last week’s contest, marking his worst performance as the starter, and there’s a good chance things get worse for him against an Eagles’ defensive front that led the league in sacks by a comfortable margin with 70 on the season.
So, I’ll back Philly here, as the Eagles have scored 35+ points in four of their last six contests started by Jalen Hurts, and if their defense is able to hold, I highly doubt we’ll see the Niners escape with a victory on the heels of another lackluster offensive performance.
A.J. Brown (PHI) Over 70.5 Receiving Yards
A.J. Brown was surprisingly quiet in the Eagles’ Divisional Round matchup against New York, considering he caught just three passes for 22 yards on the way to a 38-7 victory over the Giants last week.
However, I wouldn’t look much into last week’s performance. When the Eagles are moving the ball up-and-down the field with very little resistance, Jalen Hurts does an excellent job of spreading around targets to all of his pass-catchers, which is what we saw in last week’s blowout. But in a matchup against a Niners’ secondary that ranks Top 10 in the league in yards allowed per pass attempt, I think we’ll see him dial-in on Brown.
Prior to his latest outing, Brown had recorded 70+ receiving yards in six straight games, with five of those performances ringing in north of the 90-yard receiving mark. And whenever things get tough for Philly’s offense, we typically see Hurts pepper Brown with targets. So, I’ll back Brown to bounce back in the receiving department in a matchup with all the chips on the table this Sunday.
Brock Purdy (SF) Over 0.5 Interceptions Thrown
Brock Purdy has played phenomenal since taking the reins for the Niners back in Week 13, and quite frankly, there’s some real legitimacy to what he’s done during his brief eight-game stint to kick off his career for San Francisco.
The Niners have racked up a lofty average of 30.4 PPG in their eight games primarily quarterbacked by Purdy, while posting a perfect 8-0 record in those contests, and regardless of what happens in Sunday’s conference championship game, there’s no doubt that this guy deserves a crack at being the starter next year, of course, barring some type of top-shelf superstar acquisition like Tom Brady or Aaron Rodgers this offseason.
However, all that said, in his ninth career NFL start against Philly this week, Purdy will face the top-ranked pass rush in the league in one of the rowdiest sporting environments on the planet. In last week’s home matchup against Dallas, we saw glimpses of what potentially lies ahead for him, as Purdy threw for just 214 yards on 7.4 yards per attempt in a contest the Niners scored just 19 points in, which easily could’ve resulted in an ugly loss for San Francisco if they happened to match up against a capable offensive attack.
At the very least, Philly’s pass rush should be able to shorten-up his progressions, and ultimately, force a few bad decisions. But even if the Eagles’ D-line was a slightly lower caliber, I’d still expect Purdy to throw an interception in Sunday’s contest, as there’s a good chance the raucous Philly crowd gets to the rookie’s head in this one anyway.
Bengals vs. Chiefs SGP Picks
- Cincinnati Bengals ML (+105)
- Jerrick McKinnon (KC) Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+150)
- Hayden Hurst (CIN) Over 3.5 Receptions (-150)
Cincinnati Bengals ML
Typically, strong head-to-head matchup trends can be chalked up to a variety of factors, and the history between these teams is no exception. However, consistently beating the Chiefs is a bit different. This is a squad that’s posted a regular season record of 64-18 since officially handing the keys to Mahomes back in 2018, and they’ve reached five straight AFC Championship Games.
Most of Kansas City’s regular season losses during that span were absolute flukes, but regardless of their overall dominance throughout the last half-decade, the Chiefs always appear far more vulnerable in matchups against particular well-balanced units, and the Bengals have already cracked that formula.
It’s a tall order, but the secret to consistently beating the Chiefs is keeping a stacked roster on the defensive side of the ball, combined with a steady offensive unit capable of standing toe-to-toe in a shootout with powerhouses like Kansas City.
It seems rather simple and unsustainable, but the fact of the matter is, you can’t use gasoline to put out a house fire, and teams like the Chargers and Bills have learned that the hard way over the last few years. Which is why we’re seeing a growing trend of all these AFC squads spending big money on defensive acquisitions in free agency.
In order to beat the Chiefs, you have to put a dent in their overall scoring numbers, and Cincy’s defense can certainly do that, especially now that Mahomes is dealing with a serious ankle issue. The Bengals’ defensive unit ranked 6th in the league in points allowed this season, and the Chiefs ranked 16th, which makes a huge difference when you consider the fact that the Bengals’ offense has generated 27+ points in 10 of their last 16 contests. So, personally, I find it tough to avoid leaning with Cincy to win this one.
Jerrick McKinnon (KC) Anytime Touchdown Scorer
At this point, Isiah Pacheco has become the primary workhorse for Kansas City’s rushing attack, and Jerrick McKinnon has settled into some kind of odd redzone gadget pass-catcher role. However, in the Chiefs’ case, McKinnon’s role is typically far more valuable regarding touchdown scorer props.
Prior to coming up empty-handed in last week’s affair, McKinnon found the endzone on 11 occasions in the Chiefs’ final six regular-season contests. But weirdly enough, McKinnon only punched in one rushing touchdown during that stretch, as nine of those touchdowns came through the air, and he was also on the receiving end of a successful two-point conversion attempt.
So, after dialing up a touchdown reception for McKinnon in six straight games, the Chiefs targeted him a grand total of zero times in last week’s Divisional Round matchup against Jacksonville, and something seems a little fishy about that.
Here’s my theory. Regarding overall play selection, I think Andy Reid got caught looking ahead towards a rematch with Cincy in last week’s contest, and he almost got burned because of it.
For the last few months, though, pretty much all of the Chiefs’ best gadget goal line play designs have been drawn up for McKinnon, and they’ve been wildly successful in the redzone since making that the norm. But now, all of a sudden, they’ve entirely abandoned that strategy without even bothering to test the waters in the postseason? Maybe, but this strikes me as great value on McKinnon to bounce back with a TD here.
Hayden Hurst (CIN) Over 3.5 Receptions
The Bengals arguably have the best trio of true wideouts in the league between Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins, and Tyler Boyd.
However, because of their incredibly talented trio, opposing defensive units typically focus the majority of their attention out wide when strategizing against Cincy, which in turn, often opens things up for Hayden Hurst over the middle.
Hurst enters Sunday’s AFC Championship Game having secured 4+ receptions in seven of his last nine outings, with four of those performances ringing in it 5+ catches. So, I’ll back that trend to continue for him after tallying an average of 4.5 receptions on six targets per game in the first two rounds of the playoffs for the Bengals.
What Is An NFL Parlay?
A parlay, or NFL parlay, is a type of wager where you combine multiple bets into one bet slip. To win your wager, all selections must win for you to receive a payout. Keep in mind that the more selections you make on a parlay, the more risky it becomes. The more risky a bet is, the higher the payout.
This is a common bet type for many new bettors. The high payout entices bettors across the industry. We recommend keeping your parlays minimal to 2-3 picks that you feel comfortable making. You can combine a large variety of different picks for your bet slip.
Parlays can be a combination on spreads, totals, money lines, or even props. Most spreads for NFL games will sit at a price of (-110) to (-125). Adding a couple of spreads into a parlay can easily increase your odds to almost (+300).
People who love betting favorites also enjoy adding them into parlays. A strategy in the industry is taking two large favorites and parlaying them to increase your payout. When you combine two favorites at (-240), your parlay becomes even money at (+100).
How Do I Win an NFL Parlay?
There is not a foolproof answer that will win you money, but listed below are strategies bettors use to win more money when combining picks into a parlay.
Two-team parlays are perfect for someone who is looking to increase their payout without adding large amounts of risk. Instead of hoping for 10 different teams to cover the spread, you are simply looking for two to get the job done. Typically bettors using this strategy will pick two separate teams to win on the money line. These teams are likely going to be larger favorites. This is taking two safer picks and combining them into one so you don't have to fork out all the juice.
Adding two teams on the spread, or total, is much different. A two-team parlay with both selections at (-110) odds brings your $100 wager to a payout of $264 if it hits. Both selections will then have to win for you to collect your money.
The most simple parlay can still lose. Huge favorites also get beat, so when adding large favorites to your slip, make sure you see and understand the added value. Sometimes a large favorite might increase your payout an extra $5. You need to ask yourself, is that worth the risk?
Another fun way to spice up your NFL Sunday is by adding teasers to your slip. A teaser is simple. It moves the line by a certain number of points. Listed below is an example of a 6-point teaser:
- Regular Line: Bills -7
- 6 Point Teaser Line: Bills -1
When teasing a line, it moves it a certain number of points in the team you choose's favor. The Bills were a 7 point favorite, but when teasing them down 6 points, they now only need to cover a 1-point spread.
You can tease multiple teams and add them into a large parlay if you believe they will all cover. When teasing the lines, it also changes the payouts, so make sure to calculate correctly.
Odds shopping is when you look at multiple operators to find the best lines to add to your slip. For example below, we have listed our five preferred sportsbooks we use here at VegasInsider:
Your best selection would be Caesars at -2.5. This is why its important to line shop to find the best bang for your buck. Why lose out on a half a point because you like FanDuel better?
Line shopping just helps add value to your parlays even more. A team you thought would cover by three points now only has to cover by 2.5. That could be a different between a win and a push!
When it comes to gambling and sports betting as a whole, bankroll management is a huge topic. Specifically for parlays, you can find yourself wanting to add 10+ teams to get that $500,000 payout. Keep in mind that you should always bet within your means and set aside money you are comfortable losing.
A good limit would be 1% of your net worth. Take what you have and set limits you can manage. Do not chase bets or bet beyond your means.
What Is A Same-Game Parlay?
A same-game parlay is a combination of picks made into a parlay that is all being played in one game. Instead of choosing multiple teams to win on Sunday, you can pick three different players to go over their receiving yards in the same game.
Same-game parlays are perfect for times when you believe a team will either perform well or awful. If you believe the Cowboys will have a bad game, you can take multiple receivers to go under their receiving totals.
Same-game parlays can consist of many different bets, but it changes from operator to operator, so make sure to check with your preferred sportsbook.