Golf Free Picks – 3M Open
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GOLF EXPERT BETS
The Golf Free Picks heads to TPC Twin Cities this weekend for the 3M Open from Blaine, Minnesota and our golf experts are focusing on the below individuals for the event.
- J.T. Poston
- Samuel Stevens
- Keith Mitchell
Poston cleans up at these types of events. He's first in the field in strokes gained per round on courses with a high greens in regulation rate and second in the field in strokes gained per round in weak-field events. More often than not, these birdie fests come down to who can make the most putts, and Poston is one of the best in the world on the greens. He's also accurate off the tee, excellent on approach, and very good at avoiding mistakes. That last part will certainly come in handy on a course with water hazards on 15 of the 18 holes. In his three appearances here, he has finished T2, T11, and T28. I'm betting the outright and the top 10.
Stevens has a similar game to Cameron Champ, at least the year that the latter won the 3M Open. Champ is a bomber who gained almost all of his strokes off the tee and on the greens. If you look at the stat profile for Stevens, it is very similar. He has gained nearly 12 strokes off the tee in his last four events and has gained at least 2.6 strokes putting in four of his last eight events. If that trend continues, I love his chances of finishing in the top 20 in such a weak field. In his debut here last year, he finished T10.
You have to make putts if you are going to win golf tournaments, especially ones where the winning score is expected to be in the 20-under-par range. That's a big concern for Mitchell, who has lost strokes on the greens in 9 of his last 11 starts. While not ideal, there are some positives that he has going for him. For starters, he's first in the field in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking over the last 36 rounds. In his last two appearances at TPC Twin Cities, he has finished T5 both times. In those two outings, he gained over 12 strokes putting. Perhaps there's something about this course that gives him more confidence with the flat-stick. Ultimately, he's second in my model this week, and he's sitting at +3500 in the outright market. I have to trust it. I'm betting the outright and the top 10.
FREE GOLF WINNER PICKS
Tournament winner markets are the most commonly wagered in golf betting, simply selecting a golfer to win the event for very good value. Because the value is so high, many bettors will wager on anywhere from one to five golfers in a single event. VegasInsider provides golf Free Picks for each event, picking winners for golfers that are favored, given mid-range odds or long shots to consider.
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FREE GOLF PROP PICKS
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