Free Golf Picks & Predictions – The John Deere Classic
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Stay tuned for our picks for the John Deere Classic!
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Free Golf Winner Picks
Tournament winner markets are the most commonly wagered in golf betting, simply selecting a golfer to win the event for very good value. Because the value is so high, many bettors will wager on anywhere from one to five golfers in a single event.
VegasInsider provides Golf Free Picks for each event, picking winners for golfers that are favored, given mid-range odds, or long shots to consider.
Lucas Glover to Win (+4000)
Lucas Glover is a dark horse to win the John Deere Classic at +4000. His 7th-place ranking in driving accuracy is a perfect fit for TPC Deere Run, where precision off the tee is paramount. Glover’s approach play from 100-150 yards is elite, ranking in the 95th percentile for strokes gained per shot and 96th percentile for proximity in this range. His 92nd percentile in poor shot avoidance from the rough under 150 yards further bolsters his case. Ranking 24th in strokes gained tee to green and 5th in scrambling from the rough, Glover’s skill set matches the course’s demands, offering tremendous value for an outright win.
Free Golf Matchup Picks
Keen on one particular golfer outperforming another? Perhaps you’re on the Brooks Koepka team and want to bet against his nemesis, Bryson DeChambeau?
Regardless, VegasInsider provides the best matchup selections for Golf Free Picks.
Instead of picking a tournament winner, bettors will select one specific golfer to finish in a higher position than another specific golfer.
This is known as matchup betting, and our experts provide top analysis on matchups for 72 holes of play or just one round.
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Golf Free Prop Picks
From group bets to nationality winners, even winning stroke margins, there are ample golf prop bets to select from.
Our VegasInsider golf experts go through the various prior markets for each event to find you the best value in exotic wagers.
Davis Thompson Top-5 (+800)
Davis Thompson is a strong contender for a top-5 finish at the John Deere Classic at TPC Deere Run. As last year’s champion, he has proven course history. His 39th ranking in driving accuracy, with a 63.5% fairway hit rate, aligns well with the course’s demand for precision off the tee. Ranking 20th in total driving, Thompson combines accuracy with decent distance. His positive strokes gained in his last three tournaments shows consistent form. Additionally, his 34th-ranked birdie average (4.03 per round) is ideal for the low-scoring nature of this event. Thompson’s approach play from 100-150 yards is a key asset, with an average proximity of 20.6 feet—2 feet closer than the tour average—making him a solid pick at +800.
Rico Hoey Top-20 (+350)
Rico Hoey is a compelling top-20 bet at +350 for the John Deere Classic. His elite ball-striking gives him an edge at TPC Deere Run, where driving accuracy is critical. Hoey ranks 3rd in strokes gained off the tee and 16th in driving accuracy, while leading the tour in total driving. His 4th-place ranking in greens in regulation and 24th in average approach proximity highlight his iron play, crucial for the course’s many 50-150 yard approach shots. While his putting is a weakness (171st in strokes gained putting, -0.98, and 169th with 30 putts per round), this course is more forgiving to below-average putters, making Hoey a value play.
Alex Smalley Top-5 (+1200)
Alex Smalley offers excellent value for a top-5 finish at +1200. His well-rounded game suits TPC Deere Run’s layout, where versatility is rewarded. Smalley ranks 9th in total strokes gained and 3rd in total driving, showcasing his ability to combine distance and accuracy off the tee. Over the last six months, he’s one of the few golfers with positive strokes gained in every major category, demonstrating consistency. While his approach play ranks 60th, it’s his weakest area yet still respectable. With the course favoring accurate drivers and rewarding birdie-makers, Smalley’s balanced skill set and recent form make him a high-upside pick for a top-5.
Max McGreevy Top-5 (+1800)
Max McGreevy is a longshot top-5 bet at +1800, but his skill set fits TPC Deere Run well. Ranking 17th in driving accuracy, he’s well-equipped for a course that prioritizes hitting fairways. His positive strokes gained in approach from 100-150 yards is a significant advantage, given the prevalence of these shots at this tournament. McGreevy has also posted positive strokes gained off the tee in his last six events, indicating reliable ball-striking. While not a standout in other areas, his accuracy and approach play align with the course’s demands, making him a high-reward option for a top-5 finish.
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How to Bet on Golf
Golf sports betting has gained much more exposure and interest in the past few years, and with plenty of plus-money prices littered throughout the various forms of golf wagers, the chance for bigger scores is part of the reason behind that increased popularity.
How Do Golf Odds Work?
The most popular bet in Golf is the “Odds to Win” wager or what some might call a future wager.
Put simply, you just need to pick the overall winner of the tournament. You select any of the golfers in the field and your payout for the bet will depend on the odds given at the time of the wager.
For example, Justin Thomas is listed as a 10/1 betting choice. If you wager $100 on Thomas to win the event and he comes in first, then you would win $1,000 (100 x10).
You would collect $1,100, which includes your win and stake ($100).
How Do you Bet on Golf Matchups?
Matchup betting in golf is just as simplistic as “Odds to Win” wagers.
In this bet, the objective is to select one golfer to finish ahead of another golfer.
Similar to other sports, there is money-line odds associated with each matchup, which means there will always be a favorite and an underdog.
For example, Dustin Johnson (-135) vs. Jason Day (+115) where Johnson is the favorite and Day is the underdog.
In this particular matchup, gamblers looking for a payout of $100 on Dustin Johnson would have to risk $135 to win $100.
Those betting $100 on Jason Day (+115) would earn a payout of $115 if Day finishes ahead of Johnson in the tournament.
To win your matchup wagers, you need the golfer you selected to post a lower score than the opponent selected in the matchups.
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How Does Betting the Field in Golf Work?
Many golf events will include a betting selection called the Field.
This bet consists of all golfers not listed in the “Odds to Win.”
The size of golf tournaments vary and it’s rare to see oddsmakers put a price on every ball striker that will tee off.
Golfers who are given the least opportunity to win will be grouped into the “Field” odds and paid out accordingly if they win.
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