MLB Daily Free Picks, Predictions, Odds

VegasInsider.com baseball expert Kevin Davis provides his daily Best Bets for the MLB regular season. He is locked and loaded with two selections for Saturday, October 24, 2020.

World Series Game 4
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Tampa Bay Rays (FOX, 8:08 p.m. ET)

Probable Pitchers (2020 Records)

• Julio Urias LHP (4-0, 0.56 ERA)
• Ryan Yarbrough LHP (1-0, 3.38 ERA)

In all three games the Dodgers have been favored to beat the Rays and currently they hold a 2-1 series lead. In each of those three games, the money-line odds were priced efficiently. According to my model, the money-line odds are appropriately priced for game four as well.

On Friday when the series was tied 1-1, one of my picks was to bet on the Rays to win the World Series at +175 odds. After the Rays lost on Friday, the Rays odds on winning the World Series went up to +370.

Despite the Rays being down 2-1 in the World Series, they still have a great chance of winning. In the plausible event that the Rays win tonight, the Rays will not be +370 underdogs to win the World Series going into Game 5 since the series will be knotted 2-2.

The sportsbooks have taken many bets on the Dodgers winning the World Series, and they are offering favorable odds on the Rays to balance their books. There is not a wide gap of talent between the two teams as the Rays finished the regular season with a 40-20 record, while the Dodgers had a 43-17 record. Both teams are much more equal in talent than the Rays +370 World Series odds reflect and that is why I am betting on the Rays to win the World Series heading into Game 4.

Even though I am betting on the Rays to win the World Series, there is too much value to ignore on betting on Dodgers starting pitcher Julio Urias to record the win in tonight’s game.

While the Dodgers are -175 moneyline favorites for today’s game, their chances of winning are directly correlated to Urias’s performance. I think that if the Dodgers win, Urias will be the winning pitcher.

Urias has been exceptional during the playoffs as he has a 4-0 record with a 0.56 ERA, and a 0.63 WHIP. The reason why the odds on Urias being the winning pitcher at +250 are much longer than the Dodgers -175 money-line odds has more to do with his usage. For a starting pitcher to be awarded a win, they must pitch for at least five innings.

Urias will usually pitch up to five innings, as he is a mix between a short starter and a long reliever.

With the injury prone Clayton Kershaw slated to pitch in Game 5, I think the Dodgers are more likely to rely on Urias to pitch for at least five innings in Saturday night’s game. If Urias pitches for at least five innings and the Dodgers are ahead, then they are likely to win the game.

Best Bet Tracker

• Tampa Bay Rays to win World Series +370
• Julio Urias (LAD) to Record the Win +250