NFL Player Prop Picks – Thursday Night Football
The VegasInsider NFL Player Prop Picks are now available for the 2023-24 NFL regular season and for this year's campaign, we're leaning on our friends at RotoGrinders.
Check back each week as the stable of RG experts will be providing their best player props and picks all season. Get more of our NFL free picks for the coming week's games.
NFL PLAYER PROP BETS - THURSDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL
The NFL Player Prop Bets will kick off Week 13 with a Thursday Night Football matchup featuring a pair of NFC contenders:
- Seattle Seahawks at Dallas Cowboys (Amazon, 8:15 p.m. ET)
For the above matchup, our experts are focused on these players:
- Seahawks QB Geno Smith
- Seahawks WR DK Metcalf
- Cowboys RB Tony Pollard
I know that this is a tough matchup and that Geno hasn't been great this season, but this line is too low. Kenneth Walker isn't expected to play, and the Seahawks will likely be forced to pass the ball a lot more considering they are 9-point underdogs. The Cowboys have allowed the 2nd-fewest passing yards per game this season. However, that number is kind of misleading since they've had one of the easiest schedules in the league for a pass D, already facing Tommy DeVito, Bryce Young, Mac Jones, Joshua Dobbs, Zach Wilson, and Daniel Jones. This game will be in Dallas, so the dome upgrade should help Geno, and he's averaging a solid 234 passing yards per game this season after averaging over 250 per game last season. I have Geno projected a full 15 yards over this number and would hit it all the way up to 228.5.
This really hasn't been a great season for Metcalf, but it has to turn around at some point. He has been targeted a ton in the red zone this season (17 targets), which is tied for the 8th most in the league. He draws a tough matchup vs. the Dallas defense, but the Seahawks are still going to force the ball to Metcalf (25% target share). While the Seahawks do have a low team total, they are 9-point 'dogs and will likely be forced to throw the ball all game long. The regression has to happen at some point for Metcalf, and the odds we're getting here are just too high for a guy who has averaged 0.5 TDs per game over the course of his career.
Pollard has been underwhelming in 2023, at least relative to the lofty expectations that many pundits had for him leading up to the start of the season. Despite a lack of media glamor, Pollard still ranks 11th in the NFL in rushing yards and is on pace for over 1,000 yards on the ground. The advanced metrics on Pollard do not set him up well to get paid this offseason, but in the meantime, he is still more than capable of eclipsing this market number against a Seattle run defense that ranks 32nd in EPA/play and 30th in success rate since edge defender Uchenna Nwosu last played in Week 6. The Seahawks allowed 114 rushing yards to Christian McCaffrey on Thanksgiving and 73 rushing yards to Royce Freeman the week prior. Pollard, even lacking high-end explosiveness, is a worthwhile risk in this spot against one of the league's worst run defenses.
Odds Provided by bet365 - Subject to Change
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What Are NFL Prop Bets?
NFL props bets can be anything from how many passing yards a QB will throw for to how many sacks a player might have. The options are endless, and this makes it so you can bet with or against a certain player instead of betting on the whole team.
Players props can have different edges compared to traditional bets. If there is a matchup you like on Stefon Diggs, then bet on his under. Many people like to look at the offensive vs. defensive matchup to determine what props they are going to wager on.
Players are also more susceptible to trends. If a player has been dropping the ball, expect that player to continue those actions until you get corrected.
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Different Types Of NFL Prop Bets
Touchdown Scorer
A common NFL prop bet is who will score a touchdown in a given game. The shortened version you might see is ATTD. This stands for anytime touchdown scorer. Winning this bet is pretty simple. The player you bet on has to score a touchdown. This can get confusing when you see quarterbacks listed as touchdown scorers.
Looking at the lines, you might see something like this listed on a given Sunday:
- Josh Allen Anytime Touchdown: +350
When reading touchdown props for quarterbacks, unless stated as a passing touchdown prop, this means Josh Allen will have to score a rushing or receiving touchdown. If he throws for three touchdowns, this bet would still be graded as a loser. Make sure to find the correct prop you are looking for on your preferred sportsbook.
Rushing/Receiving/Passing Yards
Another common type of NFL prop is rushing, receiving, and passing yards props. These are betting on a specific player to either go over or under a certain number of yards. These types of bets are available to all players, so make sure you find the correct prop for the player you want.
Nick Chubb might have the option for rushing and receiving yards, so make sure to select exactly what you want.
Below are a couple different player props that you will see listed:
- Tyreek Hill Over 88.5 Receiving Yards
- Joe Mixon Over 55 Rushing Yards
- Lamar Jackson Under 299.5 Passing Yards
These types of wagers are commonly used on fantasy apps such as PrizePicks, which is widely available in states sports betting isn't always legal since you're not betting on the outcome of games.
Team Props
Team props are when you remove the individual from the wager. Examples of team props might be total wins in a season or total points in a game. There are also more obscure props, such as the examples below:
- New York Jets: Total Team Field Goals Over/Under 2.5
- Green Bay Packers: Team Total Punts Over/Under 5
- Detroit Lions: Team Total Points Over/Under 20.5
Team props are usually how the team will perform, not on the individual level.
Bankroll Management
In the space of gambling and sports betting as a whole, bankroll management is a controversial topic. NFL props are easy to get carried away with, so keep in mind you should always bet within your means and set aside money you are comfortable losing. If you are using any Fantasy apps, set deposit limits for yourself.
A good limit would be 1% of your total worth. Take what you have and set limits you can manage. Do not chase bets or bet beyond your means.
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