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May 25, 2022

2023 OSCARS BETTING ODDS, CATEGORIES & INFORMATION

The 2022 Oscars took place on Sunday, March 27 with a whopping 21 favorites of the 23 taking home hardware, as only two underdogs saw the trophy. Below are the past results and betting information regarding this unique handicapping market. It's also never too early to plan on betting next year's event, as it's always a good idea to get on this market early for when odds release. Below you will find a list of movies to keep on your radar for the 2023 Oscars.

PointsBet also has early odds for Best Picture at the 95th Academy Award show, which is listed below.

2023 BEST PICTURE ODDS

2023 OSCARS CONTENDERS

Below is a list of potential 2023 Oscars contenders for the 95th Academy Award show. Our Oscars betting experts review these films for possible category nominations to watch out for when nominations release next year. Check out the movies to keep on your radar this year. Films with a bold strikethrough have been reviewed by our Oscars betting experts below.

  • Babylon
  • She Said
  • The Northman
  • Don't Worry Darling
  • Lightyear
  • The Son
  • Women Talking
  • Tar
  • Good Luck to You, Leo Grande
  • Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
  • See For Me
  • Belle
  • The Pink Cloud
  • Compartment No. 6
  • Catch the Fair One
  • Fabian: Going to the Dogs
  • I Want You Back
  • Indemnity
  • Dog
  • Strawberry Mansion
  • Ted K
  • The Batman
  • After Yang
  • Great Freedom
  • Lucy and Desi
  • Turning Red
  • Everything Everywhere All at Once
  • Mothering Sunday
  • Nitram
  • Nope
  • Killers of the Flower Moon
  • Bones and All
  • White Noise
  • The Woman King
  • Knives Out 2
  • Wendell and Wild
  • Alcarràs
  • Top Gun: Maverick
  • Avatar 2
  • The Fabelmans
  • Armageddon Time
  • Poor Things
  • Till
  • The Whale
  • Rustin
  • Living
  • Shirley
  • I Wanna Dance with Somebody
  • Decision to Leave
  • Bardo
  • The Menu
  • The Banshees of Inisherin
  • The Wonder
  • Pinocchio
  • Puss in Boots: The Last Wish
  • The Way of the Wind
  • Monkey Man
  • Elvis
  • Dr. Strange and the Multiverse of Madness
  • White Bird: A Wonder Story
  • Fantastic Beasts: The Secrets of Dumbledore
  • Hallelujah: Leonard Cohen, a Journey, a Song
  • The Novelist's Film
  • Descendant
  • The Deer King
  • Luck
  • Thor: Love and Thunder
  • The End of Medicine
  • Jurassic World: Dominion
  • The Last Movie Stars
  • Lost Illusions
  • Before, Now & Then
  • Apollo 10 1/2: A Space Age Childhood
  • You Won't Be Alone
  • Memoria
  • Cow
  • Paris, 13th District
  • The Tale of King Crab
  • We're All Going to the World's Fair
  • The Bad Guys
  • The Unbearable Weight of Massive Talent
  • Marvelous and the Black Hole
  • Hit the Road
  • Petite Maman
  • Hatching
  • Fiddler's Journey to the Big Screen
  • Vortex

2023 OSCARS FORECAST WATCH

THE BATMAN - 8.6/10

  • Genre: Action/Adventure
  • Rating: PG-13
  • Run Time: 176 minutes
  • Where to Watch: HBO Max
  • Director: Matt Reeves
  • Notable Cast: Robert Pattinson, Zoe Kravitz, Paul Dano
  • Possible Nomination(s): Best Sound, Best Production Design, Best Makeup & Hairstyle, Best Visual Effects

The screenplay was very good, successfully unique and different from a story told many times in the past. The sound is an easy nomination lock and the strongest category this film has to win at the 2023 Oscars. The production design and makeup/hairstyle categories are also worth watching for this film, both vital to the tone and setting. It will be tough for this film to contend with the major categories as heavyweights drop throughout the year, but the easy layup for this film getting into the 2023 Oscars is without a doubt its sound quality.

TURNING RED - 9.4/10

  • Genre: Animation
  • Rating: PG
  • Run Time: 100 minutes
  • Where to Watch: Disney+
  • Director: Domee Shi
  • Notable Cast: Sandra Oh, James Hong, Rosalie Chiang
  • Possible Nomination(s): Best Animated Film, Best Original Song

This has Best Animated Film nomination written all over it, a clever and creative delivery from one of the best animated studios in Pixar. The story was excellent and focused on a topic that many animated films rarely explore, while still focusing on what makes many of Pixar's films - family. The script was never afraid to go too abstract either, evident from the intro credits along with the movie's finale. Overall the screenplay was refreshing and original, while Billie Eilish may see a second straight Best Song nomination for 'Nobody Like U'.

Odds Provided by PointsBet - Updated - Wed., May 25 - 12:03 p.m. ET

2022 OSCARS BETTING RESULTS

  • Favorites-Underdogs: 21-2
  • Largest Favorite to Win: Dune - Best Visual Effects (-3500) / Jane Campion - Best Director (-3500)
  • Longest Underdog to Win: The Windshield Wiper - Best Animated Short (+500)
  • Most Awards: Dune (6)
  • Best Picture - CODA (-155)
  • Best Actor - Will Smith - King Richard (-800)
  • Best Actress - Jessica Chastain - The Eyes of Tammy Faye (-140)
  • Best Director - Jane Campion - The Power of the Dog (-3500)
  • Best Supporting Actor - Troy Kotsur - CODA (-800)
  • Best Supporting Actress - Ariana DeBose - West Side Story (-1600)
  • Best Original Screenplay - Belfast (+110)
  • Best Adapted Screenplay - CODA (-250)
  • Best Cinematography - Dune (-500)
  • Best Animated Film - Encanto (-1000)
  • Best International Film - Drive My Car (-2500)
  • Best Documentary - Summer of Soul (-360)
  • Best Film Editing - Dune (-125)
  • Best Production Design - Dune (-300)
  • Best Costume Design - Cruella (-450)
  • Best Makeup & Hairstyle - The Eyes of Tammy Faye (-280)
  • Best Song - No Time to Die (-225)
  • Best Sound - Dune (-1200)
  • Best Score - Dune (-500)
  • Best Visual Effects - Dune (-3500)
  • Best Documentary Short - The Queen of Basketball (-155)
  • Best Animated Short - The Windshield Wiper (+500)
  • Best Live Action Short - The Long Goodbye (-225)

BETTING ON THE OSCARS

Best Oscars Betting Sites:

bet365 | BetMGM | Caesars Sportsbook | DraftKings | FanDuel | PointsBet | Best US Sportsbooks

Where to bet on the Oscars:

Colorado | Indiana | Louisiana | Michigan | New Jersey

OSCARS BETTING HISTORY

Best Picture Winners

  • 2022 - CODA (-155)
  • 2021 - Nomadland (-670)

Best Actor Winners

  • 2022 - Will Smith - King Richard (-800)
  • 2021 - Anthony Hopkins - The Father (+700)

Best Actress Winners

  • 2022 - Jessica Chastain (-140)
  • 2021 - Frances McDormand - Nomadland (+400)

Best Director Winners

  • 2022 - Jane Campion - The Power of the Dog (-3500)
  • 2021 - Chloe Zhao - Nomadland (-3335)

Best Supporting Actor Winners

  • 2022 - Troy Kotsur - CODA (-800)
  • 2021 - Daniel Kaluuya - Judaas & The Black Messiah (-2500)

Best Supporting Actress Winners

  • 2022 - Ariana DeBose - West Side Story (-1600)
  • 2021 - Youn Yuh-jung - Minari (-500)

Best Original Screenplay Winners

  • 2022 - Belfast (+110)
  • 2021 - Promising Young Woman (-450)

Best Adapted Screenplay Winners

  • 2022 - CODA (-250)
  • 2021 - The Father (+300)

Best Cinematography Winners

  • 2022 - Dune (-500)
  • 2021 - Mank (+350)

Best Animated Film Winners

  • 2022 - Encanto (-1000)
  • 2021 - Soul (-5000)

Best International Film Winners

  • 2022 - Drive My Car (-2500)
  • 2021 - Another Round (-1250)

Best Documentary Winners

  • 2022 - Summer of Soul (-360)
  • 2021 - My Octopus Teacher (-500)

Best Production Design Winners

  • 2022 - Dune (-300)
  • 2021 - Mank (-560)

Best Costume Design Winners

  • 2022 - Cruella (-450)
  • 2021 - Ma Rainey's Black Bottom (-500)

Best Makeup & Hairstyle Winners

  • 2022 - The Eyes of Tammy Faye (-280)
  • 2021 - Ma Rainey's Black Bottom (-670)

Best Film Editing Winners

  • 2022 - Dune (-125)
  • 2021 - Sound of Metal (-118)

Best Sound Winners

  • 2022 - Dune (-1200)
  • 2021 - Sound of Metal (-2500)

Best Score Winners

  • 2022 - Dune (-500)
  • 2021 - Soul (-1667)

Best Song Winners

  • 2022 - No Time to Die (-225)
  • 2021 - Judas and The Black Messiah (+2500)

Best Visual Effects Winners

  • 2022 - Dune (-3500)
  • 2021 - Tenet (-560)

Best Documentary Short Winners

  • 2022 - The Queen of Basketball (-155)
  • 2021 - Colette (+800)

Best Animated Short Winners

  • 2022 - The Windshield Wiper (+500)
  • 2021 - If Anything Happens I Love You (-335)

Best Live Action Short Winners

  • 2022 - The Long Goodbye (-225)
  • 2021 - Two Distant Strangers (-118)

Most Awards Won

  • 2022 - Dune (6)
  • 2021 - Nomadland (3)

Oscars Favorites-Underdogs History

YearFavorites-Underdogs
202221-2
202117-6
Total38-8

WHAT ODDS ARE OFFERED FOR THE OSCARS?

Typically, most of the big categories will see odds offered at the Academy Awards. The most popular categories include Best PictureBest Lead Actor and Best Lead Actress.

The other categories range from popular ones such as Best Supporting Actor/Actress and Best Director to the smaller-known categories such as Best Costume Design and Best Sound

While betting on the Academy Awards or any award show is only legal in a handful of states, these betting markets could be available any year in states with legal betting moving forward. 

WHO PICKS OSCARS WINNERS?

The Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences picks the winners of each category for the Oscars. There are over 8,000 members that make up the organization, which comes from a variety of positions within the film industry. 

The Academy is made up of 'branches'. There are specific branches, each branch having at least one category at the Oscars. The branches include:

  • Actors/Actresses
  • Writers
  • Directors
  • Producers
  • Music
  • Makeup
  • Hairstyle
  • Sound
  • Editors
  • Animation
  • Short Films
  • Visual Effects
  • Costume Designers
  • Documentary
  • Production Designers

Each branch has at least one category, in which specific branch members nominate and vote on winners. Directors nominate and vote for directors, production designers nominate and vote for other production designers, etc...

BEST PICTURE OSCARS VOTING

The Best Picture category is the only category that uses a different voting system to pick its winner. In all the other categories, members get just one vote. With the Best Picture category, members rank the movies in order of preference.

This is because there are so many nominations for Best Picture now (up to nine in 2020), the Academy wanted to avoid a winner only receiving a possible 10% of votes. The system used for the Best Picture category is known as 'preferential voting'. 

This system, according to Variety adds up all the No. 1 votes first. If those votes exceed 50% then the film wins, although this is apparently a very rare circumstance.

If a film that receives the most No. 1 vote is under 50%, then the counting goes to the most No. 2 votes until a film exceeds 50%. If no film has over 50% of the votes after counting all No. 1 and No. 2 votes, then the counting moves to the most No. 3 votes. This is repeated until a film goes over the 50% mark.

IMPORTANT AWARDS TO TRACK

There are various awards surrounding the film industry each year, with some more specific than others. Some of these shows are great pre-cursors to guide bettors into the direction of category winners. 

A great example is in 2021 when Mank won the ASC Award for Best Cinematography. Despite Nomadland being the favorite to win Best Cinematography at the Oscars, it was Mank who won at +350.

  • Golden Globes - International award show for television and film
  • SAG - Actors and actresses
  • Writer's Guild of America Awards - Writers
  • Director's Guild of America Awards - Directors
  • MTV Movie & TV Awards - American television and film
  • Golden Reels - Editing
  • ASC Awards - Cinematography
  • ASCAP Awards - Music in film
  • VES Awards - Visual Effects
  • Costume Designer Guild Awards - Costume Designer
  • Hollywood Makeup/Hairstylist Awards - Makeup & Hairstyle
  • Saturn Awards - Fantasy & Horror 

IMPORTANT FILM FESTIVALS TO TRACK

Film festivals are great sources to see how new releases are perceived by critics. There are five main film festivals, which bettors can utilize to see how the industry reacts to new movies.

  • Cannes Film Festival
  • Berlin International Film Festival
  • Venice Film Festival
  • Toronto International Film Festival
  • Sundance Film Festival

HOW TO HANDICAP OSCARS ODDS

Betting on the Oscars is no different than a typical sports wager. You have your typical money-line for one favorite and multiple underdogs. This betting is most common with motorsports or golf betting, essentially 'group betting' a winner. Below is an example of what odds looked liked for one of the categories in the past.

2020 Best Picture Odds

  • 1917 (-167)
  • Parasite (+200)
  • Once Upon A Time In Hollywood (+950)
  • Joker (+1250)
  • The Irishman (+6600)
  • Jojo Rabbit (+9000)
  • Marriage Story (+10000)
  • Little Women (+15000)
  • Ford v Ferrari (+25000)

If a bettor wanted to wager on Parasite to win Best Picture, then it would cost a bettor $100 to possibly win back $300 ($100 wager + $200 winnings). If a bettor wanted to wager on 1917 to win instead, then it would cost a bettor $167 to possibly win back $267 ($167 wager + $100 winnings).

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