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2022 Oscars Betting Odds, Categories & Information

 
Oct. 18, 2021
by VI News
VegasInsider.com

2022 Best Picture Odds

Odds To Win 2022 Best Picture (3/27/22)
Film Odds
Belfast +325
The Power of the Dog +500
Nightmare Alley +700
House of Gucci +800
Blue Bayou +800
Dune +900
The Tragedy of Macbeth +1000
CODA +1000
Licorice Pizza +1200
The French Dispatch +1400
The Last Duel +1400
West Side Story +2000
Amsterdam +2000
Spencer +2000
Deep Water +3300
The Humans +5000
No Time to Die +5000
Raya and the Last Dragon +10000
Luca +10000
Death on the Nile +10000
Mission: Impossible 7 +10000

Odds provided by BetMGM - subject to change

2022 Oscars Betting Predictions & Information

It's never too early to start thinking about next year's potential winners. Besides, the best time to jump on Oscars bets is when odds first drop.

Once a film is revealed as an official Oscars nomination it becomes viewed heavily by the public, therefore impacting the money-line. This is why early viewing is important for Oscars betting, the bettor has a full-thought-out opinion of each movie when the odds are released.

Our VI Oscars experts have compiled an early list of 2022 contenders for various categories at the 94th Academy Award show. Also be sure to follow along with our Oscars Nomination Tracker, in which we review potential Oscar-nominated films to see where your money should be wagered when odds are revealed.

2022 Oscars Nomination Tracker

The Mitchells vs. The Machines

  • VI Experts Rating 9.4/10
  • Director: Michael Rianda
  • Notable Cast: Danny McBride, Maya Rudolph, Olivia Colman
  • Possible Nomination(s): Best Animated Film; Best Original Score

We Don't Deserve Dogs

  • VI Experts Rating 7.3/10
  • Director: Matthew Salleh
  • Notable Cast: None
  • Possible Nomination(s): Best Documentary

Bad Trip

  • VI Experts Rating 7.5/10
  • Director: Kitao Sakurai
  • Notable Cast: Eric Andre, Tiffany Haddish, Lil Rel Howery
  • Possible Nomination(s): Best Original Screenplay

Nobody

  • VI Experts Rating 8.1/10
  • Director: Ilya Naishuller
  • Notable Cast: Bob Odenkirk, Connie Nielson, Christopher Lloyd
  • Possible Nomination(s): Best Cinematography, Best Film Editing, Best Sound

The Boy from Medellin

  • VI Experts Rating 6.4/10
  • Director: Matthew Heineman
  • Notable Cast: J Balvin
  • Possible Nomination(s): Best Documentary

Shiva Baby

  • VI Experts Rating 8.4/10
  • Director: Emma Seligman
  • Notable Cast: Rachel Sennott, Molly Gordon, Polly Draper
  • Possible Nomination(s): Best Actress (Rachel Sennott), Best Adapted Screenplay, Best Original Score

Concrete Cowboy

  • VI Experts Rating 8.6/10
  • Director: Ricky Staub
  • Notable Cast: Idris Elba, Caleb McLaughlin, Method Man
  • Possible Nomination(s): Best Actor (Idris Elba), Best Supporting Actor (Caleb McLaughlin), Best Adapted Screenplay, Best Production Design

Street Gang: How We Got to Sesame Street

  • VI Experts Rating 9.3/10
  • Director: Marilyn Agrelo
  • Notable Cast: Jim Henson, Frank Oz
  • Possible Nomination(s): Best Documentary

Together Together

  • VI Experts Rating 9.0/10
  • Director: Nikole Beckwith
  • Notable Cast: Ed Helms, Patti Harrison
  • Possible Nomination(s): Best Picture, Best Actor (Ed Helms), Best Actress (Patti Harrison), Best Director, Best Original Screenplay

Cruella

  • VI Experts Rating 7.4/10
  • Director: Craig Gillespie
  • Notable Cast: Emma Stone, Emma Thompson
  • Possible Nomination(s): Best Actress (Emma Stone), Best Supporting Actress (Emma Thompson), Best Costume Design, Best Makeup/Hairstyle, Best Production Design

In The Heights

  • VI Experts Rating 9.2/10
  • Director: Jon M. Chu
  • Notable Cast: Anthony Ramos, Corey Hawkins, Stephanie Beatriz
  • Possible Nomination(s): Best Picture, Best Supporting Actor (Jimmy Smits), Best Sound, Best Song, Best Film Editing, Best Production Design, Best Adapted Screenplay, Best Director, Best Cinematography

Luca

  • VI Experts Rating 8.9/10
  • Director: Enrico Casarosa
  • Notable Cast: Jack Dylan Grazer, Maya Rudolph, Jim Gaffigan
  • Possible Nomination(s): Best Animated Film

Summer of Soul

  • VI Experts Rating 9.5/10
  • Director: Questlove
  • Notable Cast: Stevie Wonder, Nina Simone, Gladys Knight
  • Possible Nomination(s): Best Documentary

Black Widow

  • VI Experts Rating 7.5/10
  • Director: Cate Shortland
  • Notable Cast: Scarlett Johansson, Florence Pugh, David Harbour
  • Possible Nomination(s): Best Sound

No Sudden Move

  • VI Experts Rating 8.7/10
  • Director: Steven Soderbergh
  • Notable Cast: Don Cheadle, Benicio Del Toro, Julia Fox
  • Possible Nomination(s): Best Picture, Best Director, Best Supporting Actor (Don Cheadle), Best Costume Design, Best Production Design, Best Cinematography, Best Original Score

Space Jam: A New Legacy

  • VI Experts Rating 4.2/10
  • Director: Malcolm D. Lee
  • Notable Cast: LeBron James, Don Cheadle, Wood Harris
  • Possible Nomination(s): Best Visual Effects

Godzilla vs. Kong

  • VI Experts Rating 7.1/10
  • Director: Adam Wingard
  • Notable Cast: Rebecca Hall, Alexander Skarsgard, Lance Reddick
  • Possible Nomination(s): Best Visual Effects, Best Sound

Raya and the Last Dragon

  • VI Experts Rating 9.0/10
  • Director: Don Hall & Carlos Estrada
  • Notable Cast: Kelly Marie Tan, Gemma Chan, Sandra Oh, Benedict Wong
  • Possible Nomination(s): Best Animated Film

The Suicide Squad

  • VI Experts Rating 9.2/10
  • Director: James Gunn
  • Notable Cast: Idris Elba, Margot Robbie, Viola Davis
  • Possible Nomination(s): Best Picture, Best Director, Best Adapted Screenplay, Best Cinematography, Best Film Editing, Best Production Design, Best Makeup & Hairstyle, Best Visual Effects

Vivo

  • VI Experts Rating 9.4/10
  • Director: Kirk DeMicco, Brandon Jeffords
  • Notable Cast: Lin-Manuel Miranda, Zoe Saldana, Michael Rooker
  • Possible Nomination(s): Best Animated Film, Best Original Song

Limbo

  • VI Experts Rating 9.3/10
  • Director: Ben Shamrock
  • Notable Cast: Amir El-Masry, Vikash Bhai
  • Possible Nomination(s): Best Actor (Amir El-Masry), Best Director, Best Supporting Actor (Vikash Bhai), Best Orginial Screenplay, Best Cinematography, Best International Film

Riders of Justice

  • VI Experts Rating 8.8/10
  • Director: Anders Thomas Jensen
  • Notable Cast: Mads Mikkelsen, Nikolaj Lie Kaas, Andrea Heick Gadeberg
  • Possible Nomination(s): Best Actor (Mads Mikkelsen), Best Supporting Actor (Nikolaj Lie Kaas), Best Supporting Actor (Lars Brygmann), Best Supporting Actress (Andrea Heick Gadeberg), Best Original Screenplay, Best International Film

Playing With Sharks

  • VI Experts Rating 8.6/10
  • Director: Sally Aitken
  • Notable Cast: Val Taylor, Ron Taylor
  • Possible Nomination(s): Best Documentary

The Green Knight

  • VI Experts Rating 8.7/10
  • Director: David Lowery
  • Notable Cast: Dev Patel, Joel Edgerton, Sean Harris
  • Possible Nomination(s): Best Actor (Dev Patel), Best Director, Best Adapted Screenplay, Best Makeup & Hairstyle, Best Cosutme Design, Best Production Design, Best Cinematography, Best Visual Effects

2022 Oscars Contenders

Below is a list of either currently released, highly rated films - or, highly anticipated films to be released later this year. Films in BOLD have been reviewed and rated by our VI Oscars experts and are in the above Oscars Nomination Tracker. Below the list are reviewed films separated by possible nomination categories our experts feel it might contend in.

  • In The Heights
  • Last Night in Soho
  • West Side Story
  • House of Gucci
  • Don't Worry Darling
  • No Time to Die
  • Annette
  • The French Dispatch
  • The Power of the Dog
  • The Tragedy of Macbeth
  • Nightmare Alley
  • The Electrical Life of Louis Wain
  • Mothering Sunday
  • Mass
  • BIOS
  • Don't Look Up
  • The Card Counter
  • Respect
  • The Last Duel
  • Dear Evan Hansen
  • The Lost Daughter
  • Limbo
  • Zola
  • Dune
  • The Mitchells vs The Machines
  • We Don't Deserve Dogs
  • The Truffle Hunters
  • The Harder They Fall
  • Bad Trip
  • Nobody
  • The Courier
  • The Columnist
  • Shiva Baby
  • Oxygen
  • Godzilla vs. Kong
  • Raya and the Last Dragon
  • Gunda
  • Tina
  • Come True
  • The Human Voice
  • Blue Bayou
  • Concrete Cowboy
  • Together Together
  • Percy vs. Goliath
  • The Boy from Medellin
  • The Paper Tigers
  • Cruella
  • The Water Man
  • Stray
  • Street Gang: How We Got to Sesame Street
  • Luca
  • The Djinn
  • The Perfect Candidate
  • Us Kids
  • Riders of Justice
  • The Green Knight
  • Amsterdam
  • Top Gun: Maverick
  • Mission: Impossible 7
  • Dream Horse
  • The Dry
  • Final Account
  • A Quiet Place Part II
  • Port Authority
  • Swimming Out Till the Sea Turns Blue
  • Summer of Soul
  • Till Death
  • No Sudden Move
  • Vivo
  • Undine
  • Censor
  • Holler
  • Skater Girl
  • Black Widow
  • Gaia
  • Miss Juneteenth
  • The Sparks Brothers
  • I Carry You With Me
  • Sweat
  • Summertime
  • Werewolves Within
  • Rebel Hearts
  • Truman & Tennessee: An Intimate Conversation
  • The Loneliest Whale: Finding 52
  • Space Jam: A New Legacy
  • The Hidden Life of Trees
  • Pig
  • Mama Weed
  • Roadrunner: A Film About Anthony Bourdain
  • Ailey
  • Mandibles
  • Playing with Sharks
  • Val
  • The Suicide Squad
  • Nine Days
  • Sabaya
  • Stillwater
  • Never Gonna Snow Again
  • Whirlybird
  • Swan Song
  • Homeroom
  • Free Guy
  • CODA
  • Ema
  • The Lost Leonardo

2022 Best Picture Contenders

  • Together Together
  • In The Heights
  • No Sudden Move
  • The Suicide Squad

2022 Best Director Contenders

  • Nikole Beckwith (Together Together)
  • Jon M. Chu (In The Heights)
  • Steven Soderbergh (No Sudden Move)
  • James Gunn (The Suicide Squad)
  • Ben Shamrock (Limbo)
  • David Lowery (The Green Knight)

2022 Best Actor Contenders

  • Ed Helms (Together Together)
  • Idris Elba (Concrete Cowboy)
  • Amir El-Masry (Limbo)
  • Mads Mikkelsen (Riders of Justice)
  • Dev Patel (The Green Knight)

2022 Best Actress Contenders

  • Emma Stone (Cruella)
  • Patti Harrison (Together Together)
  • Rachel Sennott (Shiva Baby)

2022 Best Supporting Actor Contenders

  • Jimmy Smits (In The Heights)
  • Caleb McLaughlin (Concrete Cowboy)
  • Don Cheadle (No Sudden Move)
  • Vikash Bhai (Limbo)
  • Nikolaj Lie Kaas (Riders of Justice)
  • Lars Brygmann (Riders of Justice)

2022 Best Supporting Actress Contenders

  • Emma Thompson (Cruella)
  • Andrea Heick Gadeberg (Riders of Justice)

2022 Best Original Screenplay Contenders

  • Limbo
  • Together Together
  • Riders of Justice
  • Bad Trip

2022 Best Adapted Screenplay Contenders

  • Concrete Cowboy
  • Shiva Baby
  • In The Heights
  • The Suicide Squad
  • The Green Knight

2022 Best International Film Contenders

  • Limbo
  • Riders of Justice

2022 Best Animated Film Contenders

  • Vivo
  • The Mitchell's vs. The Machines
  • Luca
  • Raya and the Last Dragon

2022 Best Documentary Contenders

  • Summer of Soul
  • Street Gang: How We Got To Sesame Street
  • Playing with Sharks
  • We Don't Deserve Dogs
  • The Boy From Medellin

2022 Best Original Song Contenders

  • In The Heights
  • Vivo

2022 Best Original Score Contenders

  • The Mitchell's vs. The Machines
  • Shiva Baby
  • No Sudden Move

2022 Best Sound Contenders

  • Godzilla vs. Kong
  • Nobody
  • In The Heights
  • Black Widow

2022 Best Cinematography Contenders

  • Nobody
  • In The Heights
  • No Sudden Move
  • The Suicide Squad
  • Limbo
  • The Green Knight

2022 Best Film Editing Contenders

  • In The Heights
  • Nobody
  • The Suicide Squad

2022 Best Production Design Contenders

  • Concrete Cowboy
  • Cruella
  • In The Heights
  • No Sudden Move
  • The Suicide Squad
  • The Green Knight

2022 Best Costume Design Contenders

  • Cruella
  • The Green Knight
  • No Sudden Move

2022 Best Makeup & Hairstyle Contenders

  • The Green Knight
  • Cruella
  • The Suicide Squad

2022 Best Visual Effects Contenders

  • The Green Knight
  • Godzilla vs. Kong
  • Space Jam: A New Legacy
  • The Suicide Squad

2021 Oscars Betting Results

  • Favorites-Underdogs: 17-6
  • Largest Favorite to Win: Soul - Best Animated Film (-5000)
  • Longest Underdog to Win: Judas & Black Messiah - Best Song (+2500)
  • Most Awards: Nomadland (3)

  • Best Picture - Nomadland (-670)
  • Best Director - Chloe Zhao - Nomadland (-3335)
  • Best Actor - Anthony Hopkins - The Father (+700)
  • Best Actress - Frances McDormand - Nomadland (+400)
  • Best Supporting Actor - Daniel Kaluuya - Judas & Black Messiah (-2500)
  • Best Supporting Actress - Youn Yuh-jung - Minari (-500)
  • Best Original Screenplay - Promising Young Woman (-450)
  • Best Adapted Screenplay - The Father (+300)
  • Best International Film - Another Round (-1250)
  • Best Documentary - My Octopus Teacher (-500)
  • Best Animated Film - Soul (-5000)
  • Best Song - Judas & Black Messiah (+2500)
  • Best Score - Soul (-1667)
  • Best Cinematography - Mank (+350)
  • Best Production Design - Mank (-560)
  • Best Costume Design - Ma Rainey's Black Bottom (-500)
  • Best Makeup & Hairstyle - Ma Rainey's Black Bottom (-670)
  • Best Film Editing - Sound of Metal (-118)
  • Best Sound - Sound of Metal (-2500)
  • Best Visual Effects - Tenet (-560)
  • Best Live Action Short - Two Distant Strangers (-118)
  • Best Documentary Short - Colette (+800)
  • Best Animated Short - If Anything Happens I Love You (-335)

What Odds Are Offered For The Oscars?

Typically, most of the big categories will see odds offered at the Academy Awards. The most popular categories include Best Picture, Best Lead Actor and Best Lead Actress.

The other categories range from popular ones such as Best Supporting Actor/Actress and Best Director to the smaller-known categories such as Best Costume Design and Best Sound.

While betting on the Academy Awards or any award show is only legal in two states, these betting markets could be available any year in states with legal betting moving forward.

Who Picks Oscars Winners?

The Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences picks the winners of each category for the Oscars. There are over 8,000 members that make up the organization, which comes from a variety of positions within the film industry.

The Academy is made up of 'branches'. There are specific branches, each branch having at least one category at the Oscars. The branches include:

  • Actors/Actresses
  • Writers
  • Directors
  • Producers
  • Music
  • Makeup
  • Hairstyle
  • Sound
  • Editors
  • Animation
  • Short Films
  • Visual Effects
  • Costume Designers
  • Documentary
  • Production Designers

Each branch has at least one category, in which specific branch members nominate and vote on winners. Directors nominate and vote for directors, production designers nominate and vote for other production designers, etc...

Best Picture Oscars Voting

The Best Picture category is the only category that uses a different voting system to pick its winner. In all the other categories, members get just one vote. With the Best Picture category, members rank the movies in order of preference.

This is because there are so many nominations for Best Picture now (up to nine in 2020), the Academy wanted to avoid a winner only receiving a possible 10% of votes. The system used for the Best Picture category is known as 'preferential voting'.

This system, according to Variety adds up all the No. 1 votes first. If those votes exceed 50% then the film wins, although this is apparently a very rare circumstance.

If a film that receives the most No. 1 vote is under 50%, then the counting goes to the most No. 2 votes until a film exceeds 50%. If no film has over 50% of the votes after counting all No. 1 and No. 2 votes, then the counting moves to the most No. 3 votes. This is repeated until a film goes over the 50% mark.

Important Awards to Track

There are various awards surrounding the film industry each year, with some more specific than others. Some of these shows are great pre-cursors to guide bettors into the direction of category winners.

A great example is in 2021 when Mank won the ASC Award for Best Cinematography. Despite Nomadland being the favorite to win Best Cinematography at the Oscars, it was Mank who won at +350.

  • Golden Globes - International award show for television and film
  • SAG - Actors and actresses
  • Writer's Guild of America Awards - Writers
  • Director's Guild of America Awards - Directors
  • MTV Movie & TV Awards - American television and film
  • Golden Reels - Editing
  • ASC Awards - Cinematography
  • ASCAP Awards - Music in film
  • VES Awards - Visual Effects
  • Costume Designer Guild Awards - Costume Designer
  • Hollywood Makeup/Hairstylist Awards - Makeup & Hairstyle
  • Saturn Awards - Fantasy & Horror

Important Film Festivals to Track

Film festivals are great sources to see how new releases are perceived by critics. There are five main film festivals, which bettors can utilize to see how the industry reacts to new movies.

  • Cannes Film Festival
  • Berlin International Film Festival
  • Venice Film Festival
  • Toronto International Film Festival
  • Sundance Film Festival

How to Handicap Oscars Odds

Betting on the Oscars is no different than a typical sports wager. You have your typical money-line for one favorite and multiple underdogs. This betting is most common with motorsports or golf betting, essentially 'group betting' a winner. Below is an example of what odds looked liked for one of last year's categories.

2020 Best Picture Odds

  • 1917 (-167)
  • Parasite (+200)
  • Once Upon A Time In Hollywood (+950)
  • Joker (+1250)
  • The Irishman (+6600)
  • Jojo Rabbit (+9000)
  • Marriage Story (+10000)
  • Little Women (+15000)
  • Ford v Ferrari (+25000)

If a bettor wanted to wager on Parasite to win Best Picture, then it would cost a bettor $100 to possibly win back $300 ($100 wager + $200 winnings). If a bettor wanted to wager on 1917 to win instead, then it would cost a bettor $167 to possibly win back $267 ($167 wager + $100 winnings).


  
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