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Horse Racing Free Expert Sports Play

MIKE DEMPSEY at Belmont Park: 7/3/20
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Belmont Park
Friday July 3
By Michael Dempsey

Weather: Partly cloudy early. Scattered thunderstorms developing in the afternoon. Storms may contain strong gusty winds. High 89F. Winds N at 5 to 10 mph. Chance of rain 60%.

BEL Race 1 Md Sp Wt (1:15 ET) ML FAIR
#3 Winfromwithin A 8-5 8-5
#5 Beautiful Farewell A 5-1 4-1
#2 Garoppolo B 6-1 9-2
#1 Indoctrinate C 3-1 4-1
Race Rating: $$$
Analysis:
Winfromwithin is a $100,000 Keeneland purchase making his debut for the Pletcher barn that is 22% winners with first timers. This season the trainer has hit with 4 of 7 juvie firsters. The colt is by Into Mischief out of a Mr. Greeley mare. The colt has been working well in the mornings including a good gate drill on June 13 over the main track here. The colt looks ready to go and the barn's two-year-olds have been running well.
Beautiful Farewell debuts for the Stidham barn that is 12% winners with firsters and has won with 1 of 2 juvie firsters this season. The filly is by Frosted out of an Indian Charlie mare that has dropped one runner, 2 for 14 Positive Phil ($53,450). A solid looking work tab at Fair Hill should have this guy ready to go.

BEL Race 2 Clm $25,000 (1:50 ET) ML FAIR
#11 Beach Dreaming A 5-1 7-2
#10 Blue Atlas A 9-5 2-1
#1 Take Charge Tina B 6-5 2-1
#2 Factoring C 6-1 6-1
Race Rating: $$
Analysis:
Beach Dreaming made a good late rally to finish third last out against $16,000 foes at Gulfstream Park last out, beaten a half length for the top spot. She was making her first start off the claim by the Gallegos barn. Now she lands with the Kantarmaci barn that has been a bit chilly at the meeting here but is 20% winners (with a +ROI) overall with newcomers to the barn. She steps up to $25,000 but these do not look much tougher and she is a five time winner on turf. There are plenty of scratches to her inside do the post is not an issue. Looking for this barn to start popping with a few winners.
Blue Atlas is making her first start since last October for former Pletcher assistant DePaz who is 14% winners with runners coming back off a +180 day layoff. She was fifth last out at Delaware Park facing Alw-1 company. She was a good second at that level two back. Two of her three wins have come over the grass here, both at six furlongs while under the care of Pletcher back in '17. She looks well spotted here dropping back in for a tag for her first start off the bench.

BEL Race 3 Clm $14,000N3L (1:45 ET) ML FAIR
#1 Movie Score A 5-1 7-2
#3 Appletini A 6-1 4-1
#6 Hetty G. B 7-2 9-2
#2 Kinky Sox C 4-1 9-2
#5 Lookbothways C 5-1 5-1
Race Rating: $$$
Analysis:
Movie Score just missed last out by a nose and a neck after a troubled third at this level last out going six furlongs over a wet track. The filly stalked the early pace while saving ground, lost her momentum when having to check behind foes and finished up well when clear. It was he first go off a 3 1/2 month break. She gets a jock upgrade here to Saez and figures to move forward off her last effort with a better trip.
Appletini pressed the early pace and weakened inside the final furlong in a fifth place finish last out in the same race our top pick exits. She was making her first start off a three month break and catches a field here without much early speed signed up. She owns good early and mid pace numbers and could be a threat here if she is able to shake loose early. Decent value if she goes off near her 6-1 morning line.

BEL Race 4 Alw $50,000s (2:55 ET) ML FAIR
#3 Jades Gelly A 6-1 4-1
#7 Keota A 1-2 6-5
#4 Jen's Battle B 10-1 6-1
#1 Dancingwthdaffodls C 8-1 8-1
#5 Gloriously C 15-1 12-1
Race Rating: $$
Analysis:
Jades Gelly cuts back to a turf sprint after pressing the early pace and weakening to finish third last out going long at Gulfstream Park against $50,000 starter optional claimers on good ground. She broke her maiden three back at five furlongs back in January. She put in a good breeze here and reunites with Castellano who was aboard for her maiden win. The Ward barn is 19% winners moving runners from route to sprint. She has the best shot of beating the chalk in here.
Keota is coming off a game second in the Captiva Island back in March while in the Servis barn. She lands with Brown who is 16% winners with newcomers to the barn. She is well spotted here taking on $50,000 starter allowance foes and the Servis runners that are coming back are running better than I thought they would. This mare has won 3 of 7 over the grass here and has worked sharply in the mornings. Still tough to take such a light price on this gal.

BEL Race 5 Clm $32,000 (3:27 ET) ML FAIR
#5 Eye Luv Lulu A 5-2 2-1
#6 Spokane Eagle A 9-2 4-1
#1 Reed Kan B 8-1 6-1
#7 Seanow C 7-2 9-2
#2 Missile Bomb C 8-1 8-1
Race Rating: $$$
Analysis:
Eye Luv Lulu makes her first start since February and her first start after exiting the now indicted Jason Servis. The barn has started four former Servis or Navarro runners with one win and three of the four ran really well. This gelding drops out of state bred stakes company, last out a sixth in the Hollie Hughes in February. He has only won one of his last dozen starts but he is usually right in the mix. The barn is 12% winners with runners coming back off a 61-180 day layoff and has won with just 2 of 19 starters at the meeting, chilly by his standards. This gelding does look well spotted here dropping in for a $32,000 tag.
Spokane Eagle prompted the early pace, took over the lead and could not match strides with the winner late in a runner up finish for a $25,000 tag at Churchill Downs last out going seven furlongs. He beat $25,000 claimers two back at Oaklawn Park at today's six furlong distance. He makes his first start here for the capable Pino barn that is 15% winners first off the claim and based at Philly. The gelding is a 10 time winner in just 30 career starts and picks up Irad.

BEL Race 6 OClm $80,000N1X (3:59 ET) ML FAIR
#1 Overjoyed A 10-1 6-1
#7 Spice Is Nice A 4-5 6-5
#5 Say Moi B 9-5 5-2
#4 Vigilantes Way C 8-1 8-1
#6 Tonal Vision C 8-1 10-1
Race Rating: $$
Analysis:
Overjoyed will be a decent price here as our second and third choices are the obvious ones to beat. Our top pick exits an eighth place finish in the Blue Northern at Santa Anita on good ground last December. The Drysdale barn is 24% winners with runners coming back off a +180 day layoff and this gal has worked well over the main track her. Her lone go on dirt was a sixth in her second career start. She returns with blinkers added and worth another look on dirt. She is a half to a pair of graded stakes winners on dirt, War Story ($3.2 million) and Land Over Sea ($746,500).
Spice Is Nice rolled to 12 length win in her debut and then was a good second in the Davona Dale (G2). She went two turns last out in the Gulfstream Park Oaks (G2) where she was not a factor in a fifth place finish. She drops in class and the cut back to one turn here figures to suit her. She has faced tougher than Say Moi who was an impressive maiden winner last out but that was not a real tough group.

BEL Race 7 Md Sp Wt (4:32 ET) ML FAIR
#9 Pure Bode A 8-1 9-2
#12 Snicket A 3-1 3-1
#7 Magnolia's Lady B 7-2 4-1
#6 Bankers Beast C 6-1 5-1
#11 Fractorzation C 6-1 8-1
Race Rating: $$$
Analysis:
Pure Bode debuts for the Hennig barn who was hitting with a few firsters early last year but his overall numbers has dipped back down to 5%. This gal is by Bodemeister out of a Disco Rico mare which does not scream turf but the mare has dropped three winners and they have all won on turf including $2 million earner Pure Sensation, a 13-time winner on turf. The filly has been working quickly in the morning and looks ready to go at first asking.
Snicket was sixth in her debut on the main track at Gulfstream Park and moved forward last out on the surface switch to grass and taking on state breds. She was sent off as the chalk in a 12 horse field and was a game second, beaten 3/4 of a length. She does not need to move forward much off that effort to pick up her diploma here. She was a $400,000 Ocala purchase, by Lemon Drop Kid out of a Stormy Atlantic mare that has dropped two winners including one turf winner.

BEL Race 8 Alw $56,000N1X (5:04 ET) ML FAIR
#2 Yankee Division / 2b Big Thicket A 2-1 2-1
#3 Six Percent A 9-2 4-1
#5 Bourbon Bay B 4-1 9-2
#1 Danny California / 1a Vintage Hollywood B 5-2 7-2
#7 Run for Boston C 12-1 10-1
Race Rating: $$
Analysis:
Big Thicket was a sharp winner last out against state bred $25,000 foes. The five-year-old tracked the early pace and drew clear late to win by 1 1/2 lengths in his first start off the claim by the RRod barn and his first go off a three month break. The third place finisher Foolish Ghost came back to beat open $25000 claimers in his next outing on June 27. This guy has won three times at a mile so the stretch out suits him. He can handle the step up to this level. His entrymate Yankee Division failed to fire in the mud last out at this level. It was his first go off a 3 1/2 month break. He was a competitive fourth two back at this level, beaten just 3/4 of a length and three back took the field gate to wire to beat $25,000 non-winners of two. Blinkers go on and he gets a jock upgrade to Saez.
Six Percent makes his first start since last November and returns as a gelding here for the Jerkens barn. The trainer is 12% winners with runners coming back off a +180 day layoff dating back five years. Two back over the main track here at this condition he ran second behind repeat winner El Hermano who beat state bred Alw-2 optional claimers in his next outing. A solid work tab for his return.

BEL Race 9 The License Fee (5:36 ET) ML FAIR
#3 Getmotherarose A 6-1 4-1
#8 Dalika A 5-2 5-2
#6 Escapade B 9-2 9-2
#5 Souper Escape B 12-1 10-1
#1 Bridlewood Cat C 4-1 5-1
Race Rating: $$$
Analysis:
Getmotherarose was outrun last out in the Intercontinental over yielding ground which was won by Newspaperofrecord who ran them off their feet and then came back to win the Just a Game (G1) in her next outing. Our top pick cuts back to her best distance while dropping out of graded stakes company. She has won 4 of 7 at six furlongs on turf. She won the Honey Fox (G3) three back at a mile at Gulfstream Park. She figures to bounce back with a much better effort and will be a fair price in this spot.
Dalika came off a five month break with a sharp effort beating Alw-2 optional claimers at Churchill Downs going 5 1/2 furlongs. She came with a good late rally and drew away to win by two lengths with plenty left in the tank. The runner up Mentality came back to win the state bred Hessonite here on June 26. She ran second in a cope of stakes last year going long, in the restricted Riskaverse at the Spa and a game second in the Mrs Revere (G2) at Churchill Downs on yielding footing last November. She looks as if she is sitting on a big one here.
Escapade makes her first start since February where she prompted the early pace and weakened late to finish fifth beaten 1 3/4 lengths in the Lightning City at Tampa Bay Downs going five furlongs. Four have exited that race to run back and three have won including the winner Jean Elizabeth, who won the Whimsical (G3) at Woodbine on June 21. The Thomas barn is 31% winner with runners coming back off a 61-180 day break. Her lone trip at six furlongs on turf came here in the maiden ranks back in '17 where she ran second. She owns solid early and mid pace numbers and picks up Castellano.

BEL Race 10 Md $40,000 (6:08 ET) ML FAIR
#7 Our Troubadour A 3-1 5-2
#9 Adios Amigos A 5-2 3-1
#10 Determined One B 10-1 8-1
#6 Shandian B 6-1 6-1
#11 Mommie's Jewel C 12-1 10-1
Race Rating: $$$
Analysis:
Our Troubadour prompted the early pace and finished gamely to just miss by a nose last out in a runner up finish, a neck on front of the third place finisher. Two back on the main track off a four month break he was a good second at 43-1 behind repeat winner Inside Info, who came back to beat $16,000 non-winners of two in his next outing on June 25 here. The colt makes his third start of his current form cycle here for the Barker barn. Looks primed to pick up his diploma here in this spot.
Adios Amigos was off a beat slow last out in his first go off a 10 month layoff. The gelding came with a good late rally to finish in the runner up spot as the beaten lukewarm favorite in a field of 13. His three previous starts came on turf, the best finish a fifth three back where he was beaten two lengths against state bred maiden special weight foes here last June. The Terranova barn has been sending out live runners at the meeting and this guy should be tighter second off the bench. He is out of a River Squall mare that has dropped two other foals to race, no winners to date. Castellano sticks for a barn that is 21% winners (with a +ROI) moving runners from dirt to turf but is 0 for his last 24 with turf sprinters.

 
Good Luck today!

Please check all program numbers and post times before wagering.
Prices listed are the morning line odds followed by fair odds.


Race Ratings:
$$$$: The strongest plays of the day. Some days there will not be a race at this rating, but when there is, it's straight to the betting window.
$$$: These races are the
better wagering opportunities of the day. I either have a strong opinion on my top pick or feel this is a great race for value in the exotics.
$$: These races are usually races where I do not have a strong opinion, or feel my top pick may end up going off at a short price. A moderate investment only
and spread races when playing horizontal bets.
$: These races are in most cases a pass. Usually races with short fields offering little value or just inscrutable. Small investment or pass and spread races when playing horizontal bets.


For exacta players, I usually will play my "A" horses over my "B" and "C" horses that offer value. I rarely box. For trifecta players, as a general rule I do not play trifectas or superfectas in fields of eight or less. When playing trifectas, I usually will key my "A" horses in the top spot adding my "B" horses in the second spot over "C" horses in the third spot.  In the rolling doubles, I usually use my "A" horses in each race, using "B" and "C" horses only when they offer good betting value. I generally do not play Pick 3's and focus on Pick 4's and Pick 5's with reduced takeout. I have each of my top five horses ranked "A" "B" or "C" and play multiple tickets. A good tool to use to create tickets according to your personal bankroll is https://ticketmaker.drf.com/.