2025 Kentucky Derby Odds, Post Positions, Picks: Sovereignty Races To Victory
Kentucky Derby odds now look ahead to 2026, when the 151st Run for the Roses takes place. The Triple Crown opener will take place on Saturday, May 2, 2026.
In the 2025 race, third choice Sovereignty nabbed the victory. Favored Journalism finished second, followed by Baeza.
Check back for updates on odds to win the Kentucky Derby, and use our TwinSpires offer code to get the most out of your action in 2025.
Updated on 7/11/25
2025 Kentucky Derby Odds
Sovereignty Reigns
POST-RACE UPDATE: On a wet, muddy track, Sovereignty covered the 1 1/4 miles in 2 minutes, 2.31 seconds. Sovereignty closed at 7/1 in Kentucky Derby odds, after sitting at 9/1 shortly before post time.
Journalism closed the 3/1 favorite and settled for second. Baeza, who didn't even draw into the race until two days prior, after Rodriguez scratched, finished third. Baeza was 13/1.
Sandman, the 5/1 second choice, finished way back in 18th among the 19 horses.
UPDATE 6:45 P.M. ET SATURDAY: Just before post time, Journalism is back at 7/2, inching in from 4/1.
"I'm not sure if Journalism is going to drop to that 5/2 range at this point. Maybe 3/1," TwinSpires retail sports analyst Jared DeRossett said. "Luxor Cafe is really picking up steam as we get closer to post. At 8/1, he's starting to lose some of his allure as a value play."
UPDATE 4 P.M. ET SATURDAY: Journalism remains the favorite, but has slid out slightly from his 7/2 of the last couple days in TwinSpires Racing's Kentucky Derby odds.
"We've got about a third of the win pool accounted for, and Journalism is out to a lukewarm 4/1 favorite. He's still taking money in other pools. If you're a Journalism backer, the win button is your friend," horse racing odds expert Ed DeRosa said.
Other notable developments:
"East Avenue is the longest shot at 39/1. It's surprising that no horse is longer than 40/1," DeRosa said.
Now at 8/1, Luxor Cafe has overtaken Sovereignty as the third choice. Sovereignty, who was the second choice after last weekend's post draw, is now the 10/1 fourth choice. Sandman is the current No. 2 at 5/1.
UPDATE NOON ET SATURDAY: With several hours until post time, Journalism is still the 7/2 favorite in 2025 Kentucky Derby odds at TwinSpires.
"Journalism is hanging tight, with an uptick in percentage of handle to 17%," TwinSpires retail sports analyst Jared DeRossett said. "Sandman is staying right at the 13% mark he’s been at all week.
"The total win pool has ballooned up to $10.8 million, with much more on the way. Journalism will likely settle in at 3/1."
Indeed, the win pool is expected to approach $100 million. And DeRossett believes the right horse is favored.
"Journalism is the worthy favorite, with little to knock in his profile," he said. "It will be interesting to see how close he stays to the lead, with a few horses in this field likely to set contentious fractions.
"Sandman and Sovereignty have held true to where they’ve been the majority of the week. Sovereignty at 9/1 compared to his 5/1 Morning Line is showing some trepidation from bettors. He could be good value if he holds this line closer to post time."
Citizen Bull, breaking from the dreaded No. 1 post, is getting some attention, too.
"Citizen Bull is catching some love, currently at 13/1 off of his 20/1 Morning Line odds," DeRossett said. "I imagine the thought here is that he can shoot out to the lead and go wire-to-wire in the slop.
"This horse does not want to change leads. So that’s probably his only chance at stealing this race at a good price."
UPDATE 4:30 P.M. ET FRIDAY: Just inside 24 hours before Saturday's post time of 6:57 p.m. ET, Journalism remains the 7/2 favorite. Sandman is gaining ground, now the 9/2 second choice, with Sovereignty the 9/1 third choice in Kentucky Derby odds.
"I didn't expect those two to be that close. Sandman is definitely taking more money than I was expecting," horse racing odds expert Ed DeRosa said, while noting it's a long way until race time. "We have $3.4 million in the win pool, which is about 4-5% of what the total pool will be."
DeRosa noted his surprise at how short the odds have gotten on a quartet of horses.
"Luxor Cafe is 11/1, American Promise is 12/1, and Citizen Bull and Render Judgment are 14/1. Those are all way less than I'd have thought," DeRosa said.
Baeza just drew into the field Thursday, after Rodriguez was scratched, but the new entry is moving fast.
"Baeza has one from 50/1 to 18/1 since drawing in," DeRosa said. "The value of the race right now is the favorite."
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UPDATE 7:30 P.M. ET THURSDAY: Rodriguez, who was the 9/1 third choice breaking from the fourth post, withdrew due to a hoof injury. So that led to some shuffling around in TwinSpires' 2025 Kentucky Derby odds.
Journalism remains the favorite, but shortened from 4/1 to 7/2. Sandman is the 5/1 second choice, followed by Sovereignty at 10/1. Rodriguez is trained by Bob Baffert, who is returning to the Derby after a three-year suspension.
So Baffert now has only Citizen Bull in the field. The 16/1 shot will break from the No. 1 post.
UPDATE 10:30 A.M. ET THURSDAY: Two days out, Journalism is the 4/1 favorite in TwinSpires Sportsbook's Kentucky Derby odds. The favorite is taking 16% of handle in the win pool thus far, with 5/1 second choice Sandman at 13%.
"It’s still early, and I’d anticipate Journalism closing closer to his Morning Line odds of 3/1, if not 5/2," TwinSpires retail sports analyst Jared DeRossett said. "People seem to be high on Sandman and the way he closed the race in his Arkansas Derby win at Oaklawn last month."
Sovereignty was the 9/2 second choice earlier this week, but interestingly as slid out to the 11/1 fourth choice.
"Sovereignty’s move is certainly a curious one. He closed the last Derby Future Wager pool at 9/1," DeRossett said. "My guess is that Sandman has stolen his thunder in the betting markets, as they run similarly in the fact that they are closers.
"Sovereignty finished second in the Florida Derby at Gulfstream on the same day that Sandman won the Arkansas Derby at Oaklawn. So bettors may think that Sandman is the better of the two choices. I am not one of those. I expect Sovereignty to close anywhere between 6/1 to 8/1."
DeRossett also noted a horse once thought a legit contender, but now a little further down the Derby odds board.
"If this race had been run in February/early March, Citizen Bull likely would have been among the top three choices," he said. "But a poor effort at the Santa Anita Derby and now the post draw of death, No. 1, has really dissuaded bettors.
Citizen Bull is the 16/1 co-sixth choice with Final Gambit.
Rodriguez is the 9/1 third choice and will break from the fourth gate.
UPDATE 2 P.M. ET TUESDAY: It's not a matter of if Journalism will be favored when the gates drop Saturday. It's a matter of how short his price will be on the Kentucky Derby odds board, according to respected horse race oddsmaker/analyst Ed DeRosa of Horse Racing Nation.
After last weekend's post draw, Journalism was made the 3/1 favorite.
"The biggest question is whether he'll be 2/1 or 3/1, or even in between at 5/2," DeRosa said. "The second and third choices will be Sovereignty and Sandman.
"I think Sandman will go lower, because he actually won his last race, is a grey and has a Metallica tie-in."
Indeed, Sandman's name pays tribute to the Metallica megahit Enter Sandman. And the band has even shown interest in the horse, with good reason.
In his final Derby prep, on March 29, Sandman won the Arkansas Derby. Under jockey Jose Ortiz, Sandman covered 1 1/8 miles in 1 minute, 50.08 seconds, beating fellow Derby entrants Publisher and Coal Battle.
The only potential issue for Sandman: He drew the 17th post, which has never produced a winner in the Run for the Roses. Sandman is the 5/1 third choice in odds to win the Kentucky Derby.
Favored Journalism comes in even hotter. In order, he won the Los Alamitos Futurity, the San Felipe Stakes and the Santa Anita Derby. In that final win, under jockey Umberto Rispoli, Journalism went 1 1/8 miles in 1:49.56.
In the 18th post is Sovereignty, even further out that Sandman. Sovereignty won the Street Sense in October and the Fountain of Youth on March 1. In the March 29 Florida Derby, he took second to Tappan Street, who is also running in the Kentucky Derby.
Under jockey Junior Alvarado, Sovereignty is the 9/2 second choice, behind Journalism.
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Potential Dark Horses
UPDATE 10:30 A.M. ET THURSDAY: TwinSpires' Jared DeRossett isn't looking too far down the odds board, but he is eyeing one under-the-radar horse in 2025 Kentucky Derby odds.
"A horse I’m personally high on is No. 7 Luxor Cafe, currently sitting at 14/1 and taking 5% of the money in the twin pool," DeRossett said. "These Japan shippers have been knocking at the door of the Kentucky Derby, most recently with Forever Young being a head away in last year’s edition.
"This horse sired by American Pharaoh is loaded with speed and seems well-suited for the distance."
Then there's Render Judgement, who's made a surprise move up the odds board this week.
"There's some curious action on Render Judgement, moving him from 30/1 to 12/1, which I don’t expect to hold," DeRossett said. "He’s trained by Kentucky Oaks/Kentucky Derby double-winning trainer Kenneth McPeek.
"That could be some of the hype behind this horse, as his recent performances don’t point toward much in the Kentucky Derby. As more money floods in, I’d project this horse closer to the original Morning Line of 30/1."
UPDATE 2 P.M. ET TUESDAY: De Rosa cited one horse he thinks merits a look as an under-the-radar pick in Kentucky Derby odds: Chunk of Gold, currently 20/1.
"My long-shot selection is Chunk of Gold. I loved that he was a little closer to the pace his last time out. He should improve here," De Rosa said.
Chunk of Gold's last race was the 1 3/16-mile Louisiana Derby, just shy of the Kentucky Derby's 1 1/4 miles. Chunk of Gold finished second to Tiztastic, another horse in Saturday's first leg of the Triple Crown.
Kentucky Derby Post Positions 🏇
Post positions, followed by opening Morning Line odds from last weekend:
- Citizen Bull (20-1)
- Trainer: Bob Baffert
- Jockey: Martin Garcia
- Neoequos (30-1)
- Trainer: Saffie Joseph Jr
- Jockey: Flavien Prat
- Final Gambit (30-1)
- Trainer: Brad Cox
- Jockey: Luan Machado
- American Promise (30-1)
- Trainer: D. Wayne Lukas
- Jockey: Nik Juarez
- Admire Daytona (30-1)
- Trainer: Yukihiro Kato
- Jockey: Christophe Lemaire
- Luxor Cafe (10-1)
- Trainer: Noriyuki Hori
- Jockey: Joao Moreira
- Journalism (3-1)
- Trainer: Michael McCarthy
- Jockey: Umberto Rispoli
- Burnham Square (8-1)
- Trainer: Ian Wilkes
- Jockey: Brian Hernandez Jr.
- Flying Mohawk (50-1)
- Trainer: Whit Beckman
- Jockey: Joe Ramos
- East Avenue (15-1)
- Trainer: Brendan Walsh
- Jockey: Manny Franco
- Publisher (20-1)
- Trainer: Steve Asmussen
- Jockey: Irad Ortiz Jr.
- Tiztastic (15-1)
- Trainer: Steve Asmussen
- Jockey: Joel Rosario
- Render Judgement (50-1)
- Trainer: Kenny McPeek
- Jockey: Julien Leparoux
- Coal Battle (20-1)
- Trainer: Lonnie Briley
- Jockey: Juan Vargas
- Sandman (5-1)
- Trainer: Mark Casse
- Jockey: Jose Ortiz
- Sovereignty (9-2)
- Trainer: Bill Mott
- Jockey: Junior Alvarado
- Chunk of Gold (20-1)
- Trainer: Ethan West
- Jockey: Jareth Loveberry
- Owen Almighty (50-1)
- Trainer: Brian Lynch
- Jockey: Javier Castellano
- Baeza (50-1)
* Trainer: John Shirreffs
* Jockey: Flavien Prat
2025 Kentucky Derby Info
Race: 12
Purse: $5 million
Distance: 1 1/4 Miles
Surface: Dirt
Date: Saturday, May 3, 2025
Post-Time: 6:57 p.m. ET
TV: NBC
Venue: Churchill Downs
Location: Louisville, Ky.
The Kentucky Derby field has a maximum of 20 horses, who must qualify to enter. The qualifying process is often termed Road to the Kentucky Derby. Horses compete in set races to earn points toward qualification.
2024-25 Kentucky Derby Prep Results
Kentucky Derby Online Betting 2025
Hundreds of thousands of fans look forward to betting on the Kentucky Derby. Odds and predictions will change as the 151st Kentucky Derby draws near.
Some prefer early Kentucky Derby online betting, perhaps in the futures market, before the draw is held. Others wait for the day of the Run for the Roses to place their bets.
From there, where should you place your bet? VegasInsider recommends official Kentucky Derby Betting Partner TwinSpires.
Morning Line Odds for the Kentucky Derby are available during race week. The official morning-line odds are announced after the post positions for the field have been set.
Types Of Kentucky Derby Betting
Futures Betting
Kentucky Derby futures wagering is a great option for all those who enjoy early betting. This type of bet is usually available throughout the Road to the Kentucky Derby prep races.
Win, Place & Show Bets
Win, place and show bets are types of wagers that new players usually stick to. Just like the name suggests, a win bet is a bet placed on the horse that you hope to win the Kentucky Derby.
With place bets, you can get a return if your selection finishes first, second, or sometimes even fourth or fifth depending on the bookie’s offer. It goes without saying that the odds are much lower, but this type of bet is more reassuring.
Show bet is the next in line. It’s quite simple - you win if your selection finishes in the top three. As you probably imagine, this bet comes with lower risk, but also a lower payoff.
Of course, it’s up to you to decide which one of these options is the best for you. There are also some other, maybe slightly more complicated types of wagers. But once you get familiar with them, you’ll see that they can be easily understood. So, let’s get started!
Exacta Bet
If you’ve already tried some of the previous types of bets and you’d like to try something new when it comes to Kentucky Derby online betting, exacta is the next one on our list we’d like to discuss.
In this type of bet, you have to choose two runners who you’ll think will finish first and second, but in exact order. That’s what makes this type of bet more complicated compared to those we discussed earlier. Of course, bigger risk means bigger potential payouts.
Trifecta Bet
Another type of bet that you can try is trifecta bet. It’s similar to an exacta, but just like the name suggests, this type of wager involves three horses. Choose three runners you think will finish in the top three, in the exact order, and wait for the outcome of the race.
If the “exact order” part of the bet is what bothers you, there’s another option called a boxed trifecta wager. With this modified trifecta bet, you also have to choose three horses, but the order is not important.
History Of The Kentucky Derby
Capping the two-week-long Kentucky Derby Festival, the race is also known as "the most exciting two minutes in sports".
Popularly called the Run for the Roses because of the blanket of roses draped over the Derby winner, the first Derby took place in 1875. Since then, it has been held annually in Louisville, Ky., without interruption – not even during the Great Depression and both World Wars.
The Kentucky Derby is the first leg of the American Triple Crown, followed by the Preakness Stakes, then the Belmont Stakes.
Only 13 horses have won all three races in the Triple Crown, in those 151 runnings. Justify was the last horse to win the Triple Crown, in 2018.
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151st Kentucky Derby Betting Results
Sovereignty, a 7/1 betting choice, won the 2025 Kentucky Derby under jockey Junior Alvarado. Sovereignty ran by 3/1 favorite Journalism late in the race.
It was the second Derby win for trainer Bill Mott. It was the first Derby victory for Alvarado. Sovereignty paid out $17.96 on a $2 bet. Anyone who hit the Sovereignty/Journalism exacta got paid out $48.32 cents on a $2 bet.
The trifecta of Sovereignty/Journalism/Baez paid 231.12 on a $1 bet, and the superfecta of Sovereignty/Journalism/Baez/Final Gambit paid out a hefty $1,682,27 on a $1 bet.
2025 Kentucky Derby Results
(Win-Place-Show)
1) 18 Sovereignty ($17.96, $7.50, $5.58)
2) 8 Journalism ($4.94, $3.70)
3) Baeza ($5.58)
2025 Kentucky Derby Payouts
With an 18/1 runner in Mystick Dan taking first place, the exacta, trifecta and superfecta tickets were all extremely high:
- $2 Exacta (18-8): $17.96
- $1 Trifecta (18-8-21): $231.12
- $1 Superfecta (18-8-21-3): $1,682.27
2025 Kentucky Derby Finish Order
Finish order, with post in parentheses and each horse's odds:
- (18) Sovereignty (5-1)
- (8) Journalism (3-1)
- (21) Baeza (12-1)
- (4) Final Gambit (30-1)
- (20) Owen Almighty (30-1)
- (9) Burnham Square (12-1)
- (17) Sandman (6-1)
- (12) East Avenue (20-1)
- (19) Chunk of Gold (30-1)
- (14) Tiztastic (20-1)
- (16) Coal Battle (30-1)
- (7) Luxor Cafe (15-1)
- (2) Neoequos (30-1)
- (13) Publisher (20-1)
- (1) Citizen Bull (20-1)
- (5) American Promise (30-1)
- (15) Render Judgment (30-1)
- (11) Flying Mohawk (30-1)
- (6) Admire Daytona (30-1)
Kentucky Derby Winners (Last 10)
2025 - Sovereignty
2024 - Mystik Dan
2023 - Mage
2022 - Rich Strike
2021 - *Medina Spirit (Mandaloun)
2020 - Authentic
2019 - Country House
2018 - Justify
2017 - Always Dreaming
2016 - Nyquist
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