Kentucky Derby Odds, Betting Trends: Everything You Need To Know

Patrick Everson Sports Betting Expert

5 minute read

Kentucky Derby odds are center stage this week, with the opening leg of the Triple Crown set for Saturday at Churchill Downs. The 150th Run for the Roses features a full 20-horse field and a clear-cut favorite.

Fierceness is atop odds to win the Kentucky Derby, one of four horses at 10/1 or shorter. But the 3-year-old colt is in the 16th post, which could be challenging.

Here's everything you need to know about 2024 Kentucky Derby odds: action, movement and betting trends. Check back regularly for updates, and use our DraftKings Sportsbook bonus code to get more when you wager.

Kentucky Derby Odds

Who They're Betting

UPDATE 5 P.M. ET SATURDAY: The news two hours before post time is that there really isn't much news. There's been very little movement in Kentucky Derby odds, up and down the board.

Fierceness remains the 7/2 favorite and Sierra Leone the 5/1 second choice. Forever Young is still the 6/1 third choice, followed by Catching Freedom, who nudged out from 7/1 to 8/1.

At 10/1, Just a Touch is fifth in odds to win the Kentucky Derby, followed by Honor Marie at 13/1.

"The market is settled, I suppose. I still expect Fierceness and Sierra Leone's odds to come down a touch," horse racing odds expert Ed DeRosa said from his perch at Churchill Downs.

UPDATE 1 P.M. ET SATURDAY: With six hours until post time, Fierceness remains the favorite at 7/2, a touch longer than his 5/2 opening odds on April 26. Earlier this week, the colt moved into the 3/5 chalk after taking a $100,000 bet in parimutuel wagering.

Sierra Leone continues to be the No. 2 choice, currently at 5/1.

"I'm surprised Fierceness and Sierra Leone are only 7/2 and 5/1, respectively. I expected more action on them," horse racing odds expert Ed DeRosa said. "It seems like the public is preferring Catching Freedom and Forever Young. They're 7/1 and 6/1 now, which is [shorter] than I expected.

"Honor Marie is also streaming a bit at 12/1."

Honor Marie opened at 20/1, Catching Freedom opened 8/1 and Forever Young was 10/1.

Eight days ago, after the post draw, long shot West Saratoga hit the board at 50/1. His odds have since shortened by more than half, as he's at 24/1. But DeRosa, vice president of content at Horse Racing Nation, is surprised by the big betting buzz.

"The most overbet horse is West Saratoga. He's a great story, but 24/1 is a crazy underlay," he said.

The main part of that great story: trainer Larry Demeritte, who's in his 70s – he refuses to reveal his exact age – and is in his first Kentucky Derby.

UPDATE 7:30 P.M. ET FRIDAY: After post positions were drawn April 26, Fierceness was installed as the 5/2 favorite in Kentucky Derby futures odds. That's despite drawing a not-so-great post position of No. 17.

With Encino's withdrawal early in the week, Fierceness at least gets to move in one slot to No. 16.

Johnny Avello, director of operations for DraftKings Sportsbook, has no issue with Fierceness as the favorite. The colt won the Breeders' Cup Juvenile on Nov. 3 and comes into the Kentucky Derby off a Florida Derby victory March 30.

But the parimutuel odds are perhaps a little too short for Avello's taste. Wednesday morning, a $100,000 bet landed on Fierceness, according to Horse Racing Nation's odds expert Ed DeRosa. That helped move Fierceness to 3/5, though the odds rebounded to even money by Wednesday evening.

That backing up continued the past two days, as Fierceness is still the favorite, but at 3/1.

"He deserves to be the favorite. I don't know if I agree with the morning-line oddsmaker. Sometimes, they make the favorite too short," Avello said. "This is an average field of 3-year-olds. Fierceness coming out of the 16 post and Sierra Leone coming out of the 2 post makes it difficult for both horses."

Indeed, Fierceness and +450 second choice Sierra Leone could find it rough in the early going from their outside and inside positions, respectively. But both are getting early interest.

"What we're seeing so far is that they're still betting Fierceness and Sierra Leone, backing the two favorites," Avello said. "But betting so far is not even a blip on the radar compared with the money that comes in on race day."

Market Volatility

UPDATE 7:30 P.M. ET FRIDAY: There are two main reasons money piles up on race day. First, everyone is more engaged with Kentucky Derby odds on Saturday. Second, at least with regard to parimutuel betting, customers want to wait until much closer to the 6:57 p.m. ET start of the race.

That's because parimutuel odds are constantly changing throughout this week – just look at Fierceness' moves the past few days – and can be particularly volatile on race day.

"You're gonna see shifts on a lot of these horses," Avello said. "You don't know what the final price is until the race goes off. Bettors want to see odds that are close to the closing odds."

Avello pointed to a couple entries he termed as possible "wiseguy horses, that sharp guys will be on." Catching Freedom is the 8/1 fourth choice Wednesday evening, and Honor Marie is 12/1.

Long Road Trip

UPDATE 7:30 P.M. ET FRIDAY: Avello, a longtime respected horse race oddsmaker, said 7/1 third choice Forever Young is intriguing, as well.

"I like Forever Young. He's run five races, and he's won all five. And his last two show he's good enough to compete in this race at a high level," Avello said.

Forever Young won the 1-mile Saudi Derby on Feb. 24, then took the 1 3/16-mile UAE Derby on March 30. However, the colt is from Japan and hasn't competed yet in the U.S.

"No foreign horse has ever come into the Kentucky Derby and done some damage," Avello said. "But I like the way he comes into this race."

Other notable horses, in Avello's opinion:

• Just a Touch, sired by 2018 Triple Crown winner Justify. Just a Touch will break from the eighth gate and is 11/1, after sitting at 18/1 earlier in the week
• Stronghold, who was a 49/1 long shot midweek and is now 32/1. He's in the No. 17 post. "I give him a puncher's chance to be in the mix," Avello said.

Patrick Everson

Patrick Everson is a senior reporter for VegasInsider. Based in Las Vegas since 1994, he's worked in the sports betting journalism/content space for more than a decade. He's most known for his deep roster of contacts behind sportsbook counters, providing readers and viewers with the ins-and-outs of how events are being bet. He's also a thought leader in the sports betting space, often appearing on or moderating panels at national conferences. More from Patrick Everson